Auburn Football 2010: Why Home Field Advantage Might Not Help Alabama

Alabama will be playing at home for the Iron Bowl in 2010. They will be playing the same Auburn team that they came back to beat in the final two minutes of the 2009 game with the following exception:

Chris Todd was replaced by Cam Newton at quarterback.

Comparison in production per game:

Statistic	Chris Todd	Cam Newton
Rushing	-10.55 yards	117.9 yards
Passing	200.92 yards	185.27 yards
Touchdowns	1.69 per game	3.55 per game
Interceptions	.46 per game	.55 per game
Total Yards	190.37 yards	303.17 yards

Net gain 112.8 yards per game and 1.86 touchdowns.

Ben Tate was replaced by Mike Dyer at running back.

Statistic	Ben Tate	Mike Dyer
Rushing	104.76 yards	78 yards
Receiving	8.07 yards	.82 yards
Touchdowns	.77	.45
Total	112.83 yards	78.82 yards

Net loss 34.01 yards per game and .32 touchdowns.

Tommy Trott was replaced by Philip Lutzenkirchen at Tight End

Statistic	Tommy Trott	Philip Lutzenkirchen
Receiving	11.07 yards	10.18 yards
Touchdowns	.15	.36

Net gain .21 touchdowns, net loss .89 yards.

Andrew McCain was replaced by Brandon Mosley at right tackle; this seems to have worked out well in 2010.

The remainder of the offense has improved with another year to grasp the complex Malzahn offensive scheme. This has been quite a difference for 2010.

Statistic	Auburn Offense 2009	Auburn Offense 2010
Total Offense	431.77 yards	505.18 yards
Scoring Offense	33.31 points	42.82 points
Third Downs Conversion Percentage	40.11 percent	53.33 percent
Time of Possession	28.04	29.01
Touchdowns	55 (13 games)	61 (11 games)

The final results speak for themselves; the Auburn football team has improved in the majority of offensive and defensive statistical categories. This is a much better Auburn team than the one that Alabama defeated in 2009.

How did the two teams stack up in 2009?

Comparison 2009 Iron Bowl

Statistic	Auburn	Alabama
Scoring Offense	21 points	26 points
Total Offense	332 yards	291 yards
Rushing Yards	151 yards	73 yards
Passing Yards	181 yards	218 yards
Tackles for Loss	6	9
Sacks	3	3

There is little doubt that Auburn has improved over 2009, but what of Alabama?

Defense

Statistic	Alabama 2009	Alabama 2010
Rushing Defense	78.14 yards	124.73 yards
Passing Defense	166 yards	168.73 yards
Pass Efficiency Defense	87.67	96.02
Total Defense	244.14 yards	293.45 yards
Scoring Defense	11.71 points	12.82 points
Kick Coverage	25.06 yards	21.43 yards
Punt Coverage	9.18 yards	7.13 yards
Net Punting	34.67 yards	37.03 yards
Sacks	2.29	1.64
Tackles for Loss	7	5
Third Down Stop Percentage	70.01	66.05 percent
Red Zone Defense	67 percent	69 percent
Touchdowns Allowed	1.28	1.27

Alabama has declined in defensive performance in nine of 13 categories when compared to 2009.

Offense

Statistic	Alabama 2009	Alabama 2010
Rushing Offense	215.07 yards	184.91 yards
Passing Offense	187.93 yards	249.73 yards
Pass Efficiency Offense	138.5	166.83
Total Offense	403 yards	434.64 yards
Scoring Offense	32.07 points	35.27 points
Sacks Allowed	1.43	2.45
Tackles for Loss Allowed	4.71	5
Third Down Conversion Percentage	39.18 percent	44.8 percent
First Downs	20.57	21.73
Red Zone Offense	86 percent	83 percent
Time of Possession	33.31	30.25
Touchdowns	3.71	4.36
Turnover Margin	1.36	1.09

There are few gains in production for the 2010 Alabama offense. 

Will the home field advantage be able to overcome the decrease in so many areas for this year’s Iron Bowl?

All fans will get their answer to this question on Friday, but the tale of statistics shows a certain advantage for Auburn.