Bowl Eligibility: Filling the Bowls, Odds and Scenarios

There are 70 bowl berths.

Currently there are 64 eligible teams with only one other spot guaranteed to be filled (some Sun Belt Team TBD; at least one will become eligible).

So we still need five Bowl Eligible teams and a Sun Belt team. I will look at the rest and say what I believe their odds are.

I'll save the crazy Sun Belt for last.

 

Big 12
 

Texas

Need to beat Texas A&M at home. Difficult, but not highly unlikely. 

UPDATE: TEXAS LOST TO TEXAS A&M AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

Colorado

Need to beat Nebraska in Lincoln. Possible. Nebraska is in a slump and the Buffs will have the Refs on their side.

UPDATE: COLORADO LOST TO NEBRASKA AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

Big East

Louisville

Need to beat Rutgers in Jersey. 50/50 chance

UPDATE: LOUISVILLE WON VS RUTGERS AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE
 

Rutgers

Need to beat Louisville and WVU. 50/50 vs UL, then need inspiration.

UPDATE: RUTGERS LOST TO LOUISVILLE AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

Cincinnati

Need to beat UConn and Pitt. Close to impossible.

UPDATE: CINCINNATI LOST TO CONNECTICUT AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

C-USA
 

Houston

Need to win @ Texas Tech. 25-percent chance

UPDATE: HOUSTON LOST TO TEXAS TECH AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

MAC

Western Michigan

Need to beat Bowling Green. Could go Bowling after bowling through Bowling Green

UPDATE: WESTERN MICHIGAN WON VS BOWLING GREEN AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE

 

PAC-10
 

California

Need to beat Washington. Close to 50/50.

UPDATE: CAL LOST TO WASHINGTON AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

Washington

Need to beat Cal and Washington State. Expect them or Cal to be in.
 

UCLA

Need to beat Arizona State and USC. A very tough task, likely out.

UPDATE: UCLA LOST TO ARIZONA STATE AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

Oregon State

Needs to beat Stanford or Oregon. Likely lose both. I give them a better chance vs. the Ducks.

SEC
 

Georgia

Need to beat Georgia Tech at home. 75-percent chance IMO.

UPDATE: GEORGIA WON VS GEORGIA TECH AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE

Tennessee

Need to beat Kentucky. 60-percent chance.

UPDATE: TENNESSEE WON VS KENTUCKY AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE

WAC
 

Louisiana Tech

Need to beat San Jose State and Nevada. Almost impossible.
 

Idaho

Need to beat Fresno State and San Jose State. Possible, but unlikely.

UPDATE: IDAHO LOST TO FRESNO STATE AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

SUN BELT
 

Troy

Need to beat Western Kentucky or Florida Atlantic. Book them.
 

UPDATE: TROY WON VS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE

Louisiana-Monroe

Need to beat Louisiana-Lafayette. Highly likely.

UPDATE: ULM LOST TO ULL AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

Florida International

Need to beat Arkansas State or MTST. Great chance.

UPDATE: FIU WON VS ARKANSAS STATE AND IS BOWL ELIGIBLE

Florida Atlantic

Need to beat MTST and Troy. Close to impossible.

UPDATE: FAU LOST TO MTST AND IS BOWL INELIGIBLE

Middle Tennessee State

Need to beat FAU and FIU. About 30-percent chance.

So with the five remaining spots, plus one Sun Belt team, these are the teams I feel are likely to become bowl-eligible from the list above from best chance to worst.

1. Western Michigan (Eligible)
2. Washington
3. Troy (Eligible)
4. Louisiana-Monroe (OUT)
5. Florida International (Eligible)
6. Georgia (Eligible)
7. Tennessee (Eligible)
8. Louisville (Eligible)
9. Texas (OUT)
10. Houston (OUT)
11. Oregon State

I personally don't give anyone else a chance.

So it appears that we will have at least 70 teams become bowl eligible.

From that list of 11, only Troy, FIU and Oregon State can get to seven wins. So while ULM has a great chance of being bowl-eligible they are likely going to be left out in favor of more prestigious schools.

If I had to guess the six schools that will be going bowling, they would be:

EDITS: BOWL ELIGIBLE TEAMS IN BOLD. INELIGIBLE IN ITALICS.
Georgia (SEC affiliated bowl)
Washington (Pac-10 affiliated bowl)
Troy (Sun Belt affiliated bowl)
FIU (Sun Belt affiliated bowl)
Louisville (Big East affiliated bowl)
Tennessee (SEC affiliated bowl)

I predict 72 bowl-eligible teams. WMU and ULM, I predict, will be left out in the cold.

Please Review