College Football Week 12: Top 10 Shockers To Make the BCS Even Messier
College Football Week 12 is here.
To keep the situation from exploding into a mess, the NCAA probably wishes that Auburn blows out Alabama and South Carolina, while Oregon crushes Arizona and Oregon State.
In case that doesn't happen, a few other teams can make their claim for the BCS Game. But even if Auburn and Oregon are destined for Cowboy Stadium on January 8, the BCS rankings are of serious import: the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl are far from decided at this point.
And with several significant intra-conference clashes on the schedule, the bowl picture will start to come into shape this week.
No. 10: Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3)
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Week 12 Opponent: at No. 4 Boise State (9-0)
BCS Rank: Not Ranked
Prediction: Fresno State 44, Boise State 41 (2 OT)
The Bulldogs have stumbled in their bids to make an impact in the BCS Standings: Ole Miss crushed them back in September and inside the WAC, they fell in home contests over Hawaii and Nevada.
They'll have a chance to make noise this Friday night....if they beat the Broncos on the Smurf Turf.
With Ryan Colburn and Robbie Rouse, Fresno State's offense is pretty balanced, which could be a problem for Boise State. It's a long shot to happen. But Pat Hill is an excellent coach and, in 2005, dealt the Broncos one of their two WAC losses in the past nine years.
Impact: Boise State's loss would seem to make it easier on the BCS, with one less undefeated team one less team can get shut out. But if TCU finishes as the third and final undefeated team, and they don't get a title shot, their complaint will seem more just than if there was another undefeated shut out.
No. 9: South Florida Bulls (6-3)
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Week 12 Opponent: Home vs. Pitt Panthers
BCS Rank: Not Ranked
Prediction: South Florida 23, Pitt 20
Despite losing at home to Syracuse, the Bulls remain in contention for the Big East title. And they are a pretty good match for the Panthers. The Panthers have not been the same team on the road: aside from their win at the Carrier Dome, they have dropped all of their games away from Heinz Field.
Impact: A second straight loss for the Panthers means that UCONN, Syracuse, South Florida, Pitt and West Virginia have a chance to win the conference. And although none of those teams are currently ranked in the BCS, one of them has to be given an automatic bid to the Fiesta Bowl.
No. 8: Conecticut Huskies (5-4)
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Week 12 Opponent: Home vs. Syracuse (7-3)
BCS Rank: Unranked
Prediction: Connecticut 22, Syracuse 19
Yes, there are notable BCS implications regarding the UCONN-Syracuse game. Someone has to win the Big East, and that someone gets an automatic spot in the Fiesta Bowl.
UCONN has won their past two games against two pretty good schools: West Virginia and Pitt. And although they have been pretty bad (0-4) away from East Hartford, this is the week they snap that skid.
Impact: Even with a loss, the Orange aren't out of contention in the Big East. And with a win, the Huskies move into position to contend for the Fiesta Bowl bid. Pitt still controls their own destiny, but a loss to South Florida makes it very possible that the Orange, Panthers and Huskies all finish with a 4-2 record in the conference.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 7: Michigan Wolverines (7-3)
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Week 12 Opponent: No. 7 Wisconsin (9-1)
BCS Rank: Unranked
Prediction: Michigan 53, Wisconsin 50
Both of these teams have been involved in Big Ten offensive records this month: The Wolverines' 67-65 victory over Illinois was the highest scoring game in conference history. And last week, the Badgers' 83 matched a conference record dating back to 1950.
All of that offense has to give Michigan a slight boost in confidence. They have plenty of bullets in a shootout, mainly Denard Robinson.
Impact: A Wisconsin win only makes things more ugly for the BCS and the Rose Bowl selection. Iowa, who defeated Wisconsin back in October, certainly climbs back into contention if the Badgers fall. That means Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Wisconsin are all in the discussion.
No. 6: Miami Hurricanes (7-3)
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Week 12 Opponent: Home vs. No. 16 Virginia Tech (8-2)
BCS Rank: 24th
Prediction: Miami 31, Virginia Tech 23
The Hurricanes have played good football the last two weeks, and aside from the shellacking they took by the Seminoles back in October, they've done a good job defending their home turf.
Against another excellent mobile quarterback (Ohio State's Terrell Pryor) they did a pretty good job limiting the big play and allowing field goals instead of touchdowns. If Stephen Morris protects the football better than Jacory Harris did in that game (four interceptions), then the Hurricanes have a better shot against Tyrod Taylor.
Impact: A Miami win snaps the Hokies undefeated ACC record and means the Hurricanes can still win the ACC Coastal. Furthermore, it should drop Virginia Tech down below Miami, which would mean there probably isn't an ACC team above the Top 20.
No. 5: Maryland Terrapins (7-3)
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Week 12 Opponent: Home vs. No. 25 Maryland (7-3)
BCS Rank: Unranked
Prediction: Maryland 26, Florida State 17
The Terrapins have been pretty inconsistent in 2010. But they do have a perfect record at Byrd Stadium. And Ralph Friedgen and his upper classmen have to have the 2008 game against the Seminoles on their mind. At home, they were pounded 37-3, a loss that cost them a shot at winning the ACC Atlantic.
If Danny O'Brien continues to protect the football (10 touchdowns against just one interception in the last four games) they can pull off the upset.
Impact: A Florida State loss gives both the Terps and NC State a chance to win the ACC Atlantic, which means they have a shot at the Orange Bowl. Considering that both the ACC and Big East could have three loss teams playing in BCS games, that's a bit concerning.
No. 4: Cal Bears (5-5)
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Week 12 Opponent: Home vs. No. 9 Sanford (9-1)
BCS Rank: Unranked
Prediction: Cal 24, Stanford 20
Well, last week, the Bears nearly pulled off a huge home upset over an outstanding offense and a Top 10 team, nearly clipping the Oregon Ducks, 15-13. They may need the Stanford band's help again, but they showed last week that they are capable of defeating Jim Harbaugh's team.
They only allowed one offensive score and hampered Darron Thomas' ability to get the ball downfield. If they do that to Andrew Luck, and the Stanford running game struggles again, like it did against Arizona State (just 3.0 yards per carry on 42 carries), then the Bears will have a chance.
Impact: Stanford can lose to the Bears and still reach the Rose Bowl, but because they have such another tough test a week later against Oregon State, the picture could get messy. If Cal wins out, they'll finish with a 6-3 record in the Pac-10, the same as the Cardinal, over whom they'll have a tie breaker. Still, either way, a Stanford loss, to an unranked opponent should drop them from the Top 10.
No. 3: Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-3)
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Week 12 Opponent: Home vs. No. 13 Arkansas
BCS Rank: 21st
Prediction: Mississippi State 28, Arkansas 20
Dan Mullen already has one pretty big win over an SEC rival, Florida. And from his time with the Gators, Mullen knows how to defeat the Razorbacks. Furthermore, he has a blueprint for stopping Ryan Mallett: Kirby Smart's game plan for the Arkansas-Alabama game back in October.
Impact: Mississippi State doesn't have a chance to get into the Sugar Bowl discussion. But if they take down Arkansas, then the Razorbacks upset LSU next week, the Tigers are going to take a bigger hit in the BCS standings.
No. 2: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-3)
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Week 12 Opponent: Home vs. No. 9 Ohio State (9-1)
BCS Rank: 20th
Prediction: Iowa 30, Ohio State 27
The hard luck Hawkeyes (their three losses have come by a combined 12 points) have a chance to redeem themselves for last Saturday's loss at Northwestern. Ohio State has one grip on a Rose Bowl bid, and they can take it away from them with a win at Kinnick Stadium.
And despite losing the slipup last week, Iowa has the seventh best scoring defense in the nation, which will be over great use against Terrell Pryor. And Ricky Stanzi isn't bad either. Topping the Buckeyes could get him an invite to New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
Impact: Iowa winning out (they have Minnesota in their finale) could create a situation where there are four two-loss teams in the Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa. Let's see that Rose Bowl selection get sorted out smoothly, with the at-Large bids likely going to the Independents.
No. 1: Texas A & M Aggies (7-3)
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Week 12 Opponent: Home vs. No. 8 Nebraska (9-1)
BCS Rank: 19th
Prediction: Texas A & M 41, Nebraska 38
Since taking over at quarterback, Ryan Tannehill has been very impressive. In four straight Big XII wins the junior and former wide receiver, has completed 69 percent of his passes for 1,109 yards, 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions.
The Aggies will need that type of production to topple the Cornhuskers. But Texas A & M's defense should be up to the challenge against Nebraska. They've faced and defeated three pretty good offenses (Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Baylor), and by doing a pretty solid job against the Bears Robert Griffin last week, they should have confidence when they face Taylor Martinez.
Impact: A Nebraska loss means that Missouri is still alive in the race for the Big XII North. The Tigers should win out, ending the season with a 6-2 mark in the conference. And if the Cornhuskers fall this week, and again in the finale against Colorado (remember 2001!), then Missouri will be playing for the conference title.
Down in the South, an Aggie win is huge. They can finish 6-2 in the conference with a win over Texas, setting up a potential three-way tie with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
