
Big Ten Football and BCS Rankings: Who Wins Tiebreaker in All Possible Scenarios
The final two weeks of the Big Ten season have quite an interesting situation with three teams, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State all with only one loss in Big Ten and regular season play.
Only one of the three, Ohio State, has to play a tough schedule in the home stretch with games at Iowa and home against Michigan.
Wisconsin does have to go to Michigan to play an improved Wolverine team and finishes at home against Northwestern, who is missing QB Dan Persa for the rest of the season with a torn Achilles tendon.
Sparty has games against Purdue and their rivalry game at Penn State to close out what has been a magical season.
So who goes to the Rose Bowl?
Here's a look at all the possible scenarios.
1. All Teams Win Out
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Should all three teams finish the season in a three-way tie, the team that would represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl will be the one with the highest BCS ranking.
In this case, the Badgers would go to Pasadena.
Ohio State has clearly the toughest remaining schedule, with Wisconsin probably having the easiest.
So if all three teams win out, barring divine intervention from the computers, Bucky Badger will be the team that goes to Pasadena, leaving Ohio State and Michigan State looming in the BCS at-large pool.
2. Wisconsin Loses at Michigan, Other Teams Win Out
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Two years ago, Rich Rodriguez's only Big Ten win of his first season came in a dramatic comeback at home against Wisconsin.
With a chance to get to eight wins, an improved Wolverine squad on a two-game winning streak will be itching to get as much momentum as possible before their final showdown of the season in Columbus on November 27.
A Wisconsin loss would vault Ohio State and Michigan State above them in the rankings, putting the Buckeyes in position to go to the Rose Bowl.
Should Ohio State win out, they will go to the Rose Bowl regardless of what Michigan State does because of where both teams are in the BCS, especially depending on how much they can beat Iowa, which blew out Michigan State on October 30.
For Ohio State, it may be a weird feeling to root for the Wolverines, but it may be the most likely way this team goes back to Pasadena for a second straight season.
3. Ohio State Loses at Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin Win Out
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Considering Jim Tressel's 27-4 record in November and the way he emphasizes winning at the end of the season, it may be shocking if Ohio State loses in Iowa to some people.
But Iowa will be Ohio State's toughest November test since 2006's Game of the Century between No. 1 OSU and No. 2 Michigan, a 42-39 Buckeyes win.
And if the pink visitor's locker room at Kinnick Stadium and the talented Hawkeyes combine to shock Ohio State, that would be the worst possible thing for Wisconsin.
If Ohio State were to lose to Iowa, despite having a lower BCS ranking than Wisconsin, Michigan State would be in line to go to the Rose Bowl thanks to their 34-24 win over the Badgers on October 2.
Michigan State along with Stanford and other at-large wannabes will be pulling for Iowa to beat Ohio State to take them and their name out of the BCS at-large picture.
And if it were to happen, Sparty would only need to win out to be smelling roses.
4. Iowa Has Very Slim Odds
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Any hope for Iowa to stay in the Big Ten race almost disappeared completely after a stunning 21-17 road loss at Northwestern November 13.
The only way they would be able to make it to the Rose Bowl would be for all three conference leaders to lose out because they have one OOC loss whereas the other teams don't have one.
Were all three leaders to lose out, Iowa would go to Pasadena because they would only have two losses whereas all other teams in the conference would have three or more losses.
Breaking Down All The Championship Scenarios
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In short, here is a list of the most simple scenarios that would result in each of these three teams getting to the Rose Bowl.
Wisconsin goes if: all three teams win out
Ohio State goes if: they win out and Wisconsin loses one of their final two games
Michigan State goes if: they win out and Ohio State loses one of their final two games
The ultimate shame of the season would be that one of these teams if all three were to finish 11-1 would have to go to the Capital One Bowl instead of a BCS bowl.
But thankfully, next year will be the first where the Big Ten champion will be decided in an extra game.
This article is featured on The BCS Blitz. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @bielik_tim.
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