BCS Rankings: Oregon, Auburn, and the Teams Who Can Make the National Title Game
With the BCS rankings for Week 12 coming out Sunday Night, five BCS standings have been released this year.
The college football season is nearing its end, and there are only a few teams with legitimate chances to go to the national championship game.
There are only seven NCAA schools who can get there under any realistic scenario, starting with the teams at the top, the Oregon Ducks, and Auburn Tigers.
Teams like the Boise State Broncos and TCU Horned Frogs remain undefeated, but do they have a shot?
And what about other top teams, like the LSU Tigers, Stanford Cardinal, Wisconsin Badgers, or Nebraska Cornhuskers?
Or what about perennial powerhouses like the Ohio State Buckeyes or Alabama Crimson Tide?
These are the only college football teams with the resumes and remaining schedules that will enable them to have a shot at a national title.
No. 8 Nebraska
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The Huskers are a longshot, but don't count T-Magic and Co. out just yet.
They still get to play Texas A&M (now ranked No. 19), which will boost their already-impressive resume.
Nebraska benefits from the Big 12's strong computer numbers, and its eighth computer ranking will certainly rise if it keeps winning.
And don't forget, a potential Big 12 title game against No. 10 Oklahoma State is looming, and a win there would seriously help Nebraska in the human polls and computers.
What they'll need to happen: They likely need Auburn, Oregon, and TCU to lose to even have a remote shot.
It's feasible to think they could jump LSU if both teams win out because the Tigers won't win the SEC.
It's also possible for the Huskers to jump Boise State (or TCU, whichever team ends up higher), but likely not both.
And even if all of this happens, don't count on Nebraska actually jumping everyone.
But it is possible.
Chance: 5%
No. 5 LSU
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LSU seems like its in decent position at No. 5, but it isn't.
The Tgers' loss to Auburn puts them decidedly behind Auburn in the standings, and they won't be able to close the gap unless Auburn self-destructs.
What they'll need to happen: LSU needs Auburn to lose to Alabama, and then to South Carolina in the SEC Championship game.
Both teams are good enough to pull off the upset so it is possible, but with the way Cam Newton is playing, it isn't likely.
Chance: 1%
No. 4 Boise State
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TCU's narrow escape of San Diego State last week opened the door for Boise, despite the fact that everyone claims margin of victory shouldn't be considered in voting.
The Broncos jumped ahead of TCU in the human polls, a spot they've been in for much of the past few seasons.
The humans seem to love Boise, and that should help tremendously.
But don't forget, Boise State is still .110 behind TCU in the computers.
Oh, and there are those pesky Auburn and Oregon guys still sitting at Nos. 1 and 2.
What they'll need to happen: The likeliest scenario would be for either Oregon to lose one of its remaining games (against Arizona and Oregon St.) or for Auburn to do so (against Alabama and South Carolina).
Combine that with a win over No. 18 Nevada, and the Broncos may do enough rising in the computer polls to pass TCU and finish No. 2 in the BCS.
But it's not a guarantee that Boise will jump TCU.
Chance: 30%
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No. 3 TCU
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TCU seemed like it was ahead of Boise State for good, but then along came San Diego State.
The Horned Frogs escaped with a win against the Aztecs so their hopes are still alive, but they were hurt significantly in the human polls.
But they're still right in the hunt at No. 3.
What they'll need to happen: The same thing as Boise.
They need Auburn or Oregon to lose, and a Boise State loss to Nevada would certainly help, too.
And at this point, TCU is probably still a slight favorite over Boise State in this scenario, but there's almost no way the Horned Frogs top Boise in the human polls (they only play one more game), so they'll have to bank on their strong computer profile.
And with Boise getting a computer-helper against Nevada, that's not something I'd put money on.
Chance: 35%
No. 2 Auburn
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The Tigers are in great position at No. 2, but can't afford to slip up with the two non-AQ teams not far behind.
A loss to either Alabama or South Carolina would likely keep them out of the NCG, but it's not out of the realm of possibility to think that if they lost to Alabama but still were SEC Champs, that they could leapfrog TCU and Boise State.
It isn't likely, but it will certainly come up in the conversation.
What they'll need to happen: They need to win out.
Chance: 61%
No. 1 Oregon
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Like Auburn, Oregon is sitting pretty.
It has two fairly tough games left against Arizona and in-state rival Oregon State, but the Ducks will be heavily favored in both.
What they'll need to happen: They need to win out.
Chance: 68%
Comments
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What do you think?
Do all of these teams actually have a shot?
And is there anyone else who does?
Let me know in the comments.
Matt Rudnitsky is a student at the University of Michigan and a writing intern at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Mattrud
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