College Football Picks Week 11: 10 Games the Vegas Experts Got Wrong

My Week 11 College Football picks are centered around this week's point spreads.

Vegas does a good job with its predictions for the most part, but sometimes the so-called "experts" get it wrong.

In NCAA football, team's are often overrated due to prestige and past success, and it seems that the wiseguys in Vegas fell into that trap this week.

Teams like Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Florida, and Texas —all perennial powers — are among the team's that Vegas overrated this week, not realizing that these teams are not as good as they normally are.

Kansas State (+12.5) at Missouri

Eric Francis/Getty Images

LINCOLN, NE - OCTOBER 30: Quarterback Blaine Gabbert #11 of the Missouri Tigers attempts to elude the Nebraska Cornhusker defense during first half action of their game at Memorial Stadium on October 30, 2010 in Lincoln, Nebraska. Nebraska Defeated Missou

We all knew Missouri's reign near the top of the BCS wouldn't last long.

But does Vegas know they are on a two-game losing streak? And that they lost to Texas Tech last week?

Kansas State, on the other hand, is coming off a 25-point drubbing of Texas and has only lost to the Big 12's elite teams.

I'm not predicting a Wildcat victory, but this is a fairly close matchup.

What the Spread should be: Kansas State (+3.5)

Prediction: Missouri 24, Kansas State 20

Utah (-6) at Notre Dame

George Frey/Getty Images

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - NOVEMBER 6: Quarterback Jordan Wynn #3 of the Utah Utes looks to throw a pass in a game against the TCU Horned Frogs during the second half of an NCAA Football game November 6, 2010 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah. TCU

This game baffles me.

I know Utah was embarrassed by TCU, but there was a reason this squad was ranked No. 5 in the BCS going into last weekend.

The Utes score over 41 points per game and give up fewer than 18, and their only loss came against the No. 3 team in the nation.

The Fighting Irish are without their starting quarterback (Dayne Crist) and one of his favorite weapons (Kyle Rudolph) for the rest of the season.

Notre Dame is also 4-5 and coming off of losses to Navy and Tulsa.

Yes I said Tulsa.

What the spread should be: Utah (-20.5)

Prediction: Utah 41, Notre Dame 20.

Texas Tech (+15) at Oklahoma

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

COLUMBIA, MO - OCTOBER 23: DeMarco Murray #7 of the Oklahoma Sooners in action against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field/Memorial Stadium on October 23, 2010 in Columbia, Missouri. The Tigers beat the Sooners 36-27. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Ima

Texas Tech's passing defense is a sieve, giving up 292.7 yards per game.

But its offense throws for over 313 yards per game, and the Red Raiders can put up points in a hurry.

They have beaten Missouri (who beat Oklahoma) and Baylor.

Oklahoma hasn't looked great all year, and was just handled by Texas A&M with relative ease.

It may have been the No. 1 team a few weeks ago, but not anymore.

What the spread should be: Texas Tech (+6)

Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Texas Tech 31.

Penn State (+18) at Ohio State

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

ANN ARBOR, MI - OCTOBER 24: Evan Royster #22 of the Penn State Nittany Lions looks to get around the tackle of Jonas Mouton #8 of the Michigan Wolverines on October 24, 2009 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Image

Again, there's no way I could justify picking Penn State in this one, but 18 points is a huge stretch.

And if you think I'm crazy, just realize what its new quarterback, former third-stringer and walk-on sophomore Matt McGloin has done the past two weeks.

He put up 41 points on Michigan in his first career start, (I know, that doesn't mean much) and then followed his opening act by leading the Nittany Lions to 35-straight points in a relief effort, comeback win against Northwestern.

This guy is a gamer.

Ohio State beats up on bad teams, but Penn State hasn't looked like one the past two weeks.

PSU should hang around for a while in this one, and there's no way it should be an 18-point 'dog.

What the spread should be: Ohio State (-7)

Prediction: Buckeyes pull ahead late and win, 27-17.

Texas A&M (-3) at Baylor

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

AUSTIN, TX - NOVEMBER 8: Quarterback Robert Griffin #10 of the Baylor Bears passes the bal downfield during the game against the Texas Longhorns on November 8, 2008 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. Texas won 45-21. (Photo by B

Texas A&M just might be the Big 12's best team right now.

Jerrod Johnson's turnovers were the only thing holding them back, and the switch to Ryan Tannehill has fixed that problem completely.

The Aggies have taken out Kansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma with ease the past three weeks, rectifying their slow start.

Baylor fooled people until last week, when it showed its true colors in a 27-point loss to Oklahoma State.

The Bears are not for real.

The Aggies are.

What the spread should be: Texas A&M (-10)

Prediction: Texas A&M: 30, Baylor 20.

South Carolina (+6.5) at Florida

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

COLUMBIA, SC - OCTOBER 30: Marcus Lattimore #21 of the South Carolina Gamecocks runs with the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during their game at Williams-Brice Stadium on October 30, 2010 in Columbia, South Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Get

Tim Tebow is not here anymore.

So why is Florida getting so much love?

South Carolina was blown out by Arkansas last week, but it shouldn't be a surprise that Ryan Mallett lit up a secondary that gives up over 260 yards per game.

That is the Gamecocks' only glaring weakness, and John Brantley and Co. are not good enough to exploit it.

And if you can't pass on South Carolina, you aren't going to win.

Don't overrate the Gators for narrowly escaping Georgia and then blowing out Vanderbilt.

What the spread should be: South Carolina (-3.5)

Prediction: South Carolina 21, Florida 17.

Stanford (-5.5) Over Arizona State

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

SEATTLE - OCTOBER 30: Quarterback Andrew Luck #12 of the Stanford Cardinal calls a play at the line of scrimmage during the game against the Washington Huskies on October 30, 2010 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. Stanford won 41-0. (Photo by Otto

Arizona State showed some promise early this year by almost taking out Wisconsin, and Steven Threet is leading the Sun Devils' passing offense to almost 300 yards per game.

But it's not exactly entering this matchup in peak form, coming off losses to USC and California (by 33 points) in the last three weeks.

Stanford has only lost to Oregon, and looks like it could be one of the five or six best teams in the country.

What the spread should be: Stanford (-13.5)

Prediction: Stanford 34, Arizona State 23.

Oklahoma State (-6) at Texas

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

STILLWATER, OK - SEPTEMBER 05: Wide receiver Justin Blackmon #81 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys warms up before the college football game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Boone Pickens Stadium on September 5, 2009 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. The Cowboys defe

Sure, Texas's defense is still pretty good, but that's it.

It's coming off three consecutive losses (to Iowa St., Baylor, and Kansas State), and there's no reason to think things will suddenly turn around for the Longhorns.

Oklahoma State meanwhile beat K-State two weeks ago and followed it up with a massacre of Baylor last week.

They also average over 350 yards per game through the air.

This one has the looks of a blowout.

What the spread should be: Oklahoma State (-18)

Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Texas 17.

Miami (FL) (-3) at Georgia Tech

Geoff Burke/Getty Images

BLACKSBURG, VA - NOVEMBER 04: Quarterback Joshua Nesbitt #9 of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets runs with the ball against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium on November 4, 2010 in Blacksburg, Virginia. (Photo by Geoff Burke/Getty Images)

Jacory Harris is doubtful for this game with a concussion.

The Hurricanes lost to Virginia two weeks ago.

Georgia Tech runs for over 300 yards per game and only lost to Virginia Tech by a touchdown.

The ACC is a two-tier league...Virginia Tech, and then the rest.

This one is a toss up.

What the spread should be: Miami (PICK)

Prediction: Georgia Tech 24, Miami 23.

Virginia Tech (-4) at North Carolina

Geoff Burke/Getty Images

BLACKSBURG, VA - NOVEMBER 04: Quarterback Tyrod Taylor #5 of the Virginia Tech Hokies throws the ball against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Lane Stadium on November 4, 2010 in Blacksburg, Virginia. (Photo by Geoff Burke/Getty Images)

The Tar Heels have impressed of late, taking out Florida State last week.

But like I said, the ACC's top tier is Virginia Tech...and no one else.

The Hokies might not blow North Carolina out, but they should control this one from the start and never let up.

What the spread should be: Virginia Tech (-9)

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, North Carolina 14.

Comments

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

BATON ROUGE, LA - NOVEMBER 06: Mascot Mike the Tiger of the Louisiana State University Tigers in action during pregame before the Alabama Crimson Tide at Tiger Stadium on November 6, 2010 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

What do you think?

Am I right? Wrong?

Did I miss any games?

Let me know in the comments.

Matt Rudnitsky is a student at the University of Michigan and a writing intern at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Mattrud