BCS Rankings: Why Nebraska Should Be Considered the Best One-Loss Team
In the through-the-looking-glass world of college football, we all know that winning isn't enough. Just about every year, we end the "most meaningful regular season" with a number of teams having the same record, needing a system to determine which of those teams should compete for a national title. Subjectivity reigns, as coaches and representatives from each of the evenly-rated teams trade elbows in the "kiss-and-cry room" to convince pollsters that their teams are deserving of an opportunity to play for a title.
After surviving a ferocious comeback from Iowa State, Nebraska remains among the one-loss teams hovering on the outskirts of Championshipville in college football. So now would be as good a time as any to start sharpening elbows and see how NU's arguments would fare against their one-loss brethren. Fasten your sequins, get a good hold on your teddy bear and flowers, hold hands with your short, eastern European coach, and let's play the game of "Why Nebraska Is Better Than ..."
Nevada (BCS #21)
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STRENGTHS: Nevada's Colin Kaepernick is the quarterback Taylor Martinez wants to be when he grows up. A dynamic threat out of the Wolf Pack's Pistol offense, Kaepernick can score on just about any play both running and throwing the ball.
WEAKNESSES: If a team's signature win is at a reeling BYU team, it's tough to make a case for a one-loss team. It's even harder when that team's one loss is to a Hawai'i squad that is better than you think, but still not good enough to be anything but a real blemish. Nevada also needs Kaepernick to be good with the 67th rated defense nationally.
SO WHY IS NEBRASKA BETTER? Kaepernick is a special talent, but Nebraska has better athletes up and down the squad. Nebraska's resume is also significantly better than Nevada's, with better quality wins (Oklahoma State and Missouri) and a better quality loss (Texas ... although that's looking shakier by the week).
Utah (BCS #14)
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STRENGTHS: The Runnin' Utes have two wins over BCS opponents, including a three-point win over Pittsburgh and hanging 68 points on Iowa State in Ames. You know, the Cyclones that took NU to overtime last week. No word on how windy it was when Utah was in town.
WEAKNESSES: Pittsburgh and Iowa State are the crown jewels on Utah's resume, with Air Force asking for at least a mention. Oh, and TCU just torched the Utes by 40 in their own building.
SO WHY IS NEBRASKA BETTER? NU certainly has a better resume than Utah, as both Oklahoma State and Missouri are better wins than anything on Utah's schedule. In a player like Taylor Martinez, NU also has the kind of game-changer that Utah lacks on offense. Clear advantage for NU here.
Michigan State (BCS #11)
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STRENGTHS: Just win, baby. Michigan State, for nine of its' ten games, found new and imaginative ways to grind out or fake out victories. Wins over Wisconsin and a suddenly-resurgent Illinois are nothing to sneeze at, either.
WEAKNESSES: It's never helpful to a resume to need a fake field goal to pull a win out over a Notre Dame squad that looks like they're not going to a bowl this year. Living on the edge is a dangerous way to run a season, particularly when you go to Iowa City and get undressed by the Hawkeyes.
SO WHY IS NEBRASKA BETTER? Michigan State's quality wins are comparable to Nebraska's, although some discount has to be made as both of them were in East Lansing. But after getting embarrassed by Iowa, it's tough to make a case for Sparty as being better than NU at this stage.
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Oklahoma State (BCS #10)
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STRENGTHS: Boy, can the Cowboys play offense. Kendall Hunter and Justin Blackmon are NFL talents in orange and black, and Mike Gundy has that offense going to the point that they can put up points on anyone.
WEAKNESSES: Boy, can the Cowboys not play defense. Oklahoma State is 89th in the country in total defense, and has given up 28 points or more to Troy, Tulsa, and Louisiana-Lafayette.
SO WHY IS NEBRASKA BETTER? Nebraska 51, Oklahoma State 41. In Stillwater. Next question.
Ohio State (BCS #9)
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STRENGTHS: Yeah, that Terrell Pryor kid might turn out to be OK. But it's not just Pryor that makes the Buckeyes go. The Ohio State University has got all kinds of weapons on offense and is third in the country in total defense.
WEAKNESSES: The biggest weakness to poke at for the Buckeyes this year is their schedule. Their best win is in Champagne against a resurgent Illinois—but, let's face it, it's still Illinois. They did knock off Miami at home, but as the Hurricanes struggle that win is looking less and less impressive.
SO WHY IS NEBRASKA BETTER? The cases start getting a lot harder at this point, but Nebraska's primary selling point is having better quality wins. Oklahoma State is a better team than anyone the Buckeyes have beaten, and Missouri is right up there with the Cowboys.
Wisconsin (BCS #7)
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STRENGTHS: You know what you're going to get with the Badgers, and it usually involves getting hit in the mouth by a back like John Clay. Wisconsin's two-game stretch knocking off Ohio State and Iowa is as impressive a run as has been put together nationally.
WEAKNESSES: No one will ever accuse these Badgers of being explosive on offense. Wisconsin ranks 44th in total offense nationally. They're smart, and grind out wins, though.
SO WHY IS NEBRASKA BETTER? Wisconsin's resume stacks up at least on an even par with Nebraska's, so the case would have to me made that NU's offensive potential, combined with at least equivalent defensive units (22nd and 23rd rated, respectively) would tip the scales in NU's favor.
Stanford (BCS #6)
7 of 10
STRENGTHS: Apparently the folks who thought Jake Locker was the Pac-10 quarterback to watch were a little off. Andrew Luck has been everything he was advertised to be. Under Luck, the Cardinal have put up some gaudy offensive numbers. If it weren't for Oregon, the prowess of the Stanford offense would probably shine a lot brighter.
WEAKNESSES: Stanford's schedule has been solid, if not spectacular, with signature wins coming against a probation-weakened USC and a domination of Arizona. They lost heavily to Oregon, but given that the Ducks are, at this point, the consensus best team in the country, it's hard to downgrade the Cardinal too much for that loss.
SO WHY IS NEBRASKA BETTER? The argument for Nebraska is that NU's wins have been a little better (Oklahoma State and Missouri a shade better than USC and Arizona), and that statistically NU and Stanford are at least even (20th and 13th in total offense respectively, and 23rd and 37th in total defense), giving NU a slight edge.
LSU (BCS #5)
8 of 10
STRENGTHS: No matter how you do it, going into Tuscaloosa and knocking off Alabama is an impressive feat. LSU is loaded with athletic talent on both sides of the ball, and is capable of matching up player-to-player with anyone in the country.
WEAKNESSES: No one can say that Les Miles is boring. You can say that he's undisciplined, sloppy, and rides his luck like a gambler taking a hit with a king and an eight. LSU sits at 8-1 currently, but given how the games have gone, the Tigers could have— and perhaps should have— at least one or two more losses on their record.
SO WHY IS NEBRASKA BETTER? LSU probably has better athletes from top to bottom than Nebraska, although it's close. LSU's signature win over Alabama is certainly better than anything on Nebraska's schedule. But, there's some stinkers on their schedule as well, including a far-too-close win over a reeling Florida, and six-pointers over West Virginia and North Carolina. While consistency has not been a hallmark for NU this season, they've shown more consistency than LSU (admittedly not setting the bar high with Miles as a head coach), and that consistency gives NU the edge.
TCU (BCS #3) and Boise State (BCS #4)
9 of 10
Wait. You're telling me that TCU and Boise State are undefeated? Then why do these teams, that have major bowl wins and victories over top-five teams on their respective resumes, get included in the same kind of discussion as one-loss teams like Nebraska?
Why must the Frogs and the Broncos wait around and hope teams perceived to be above them, lose to even have an opportunity to play for a national title? Why do these teams have to worry, if Oregon or Auburn were to lose, about pollsters that will take them off their ballot or play some other games to ensure they don't get a seat at the grown-up table?
If only there were some form of system that could be devised where all the teams in contention could play against each other, and allow a champion to be determined on the field instead of in a corporate boardroom where the rules are rigged to make sure the rich get richer. But that's just crazy talk. I mean, we all know that a playoff system would mean no one would ever watch a regular season football game. History bears that out.
So, when do the NFL BCS rankings come out?
The Big Picture
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In conclusion, I would like to be clear about one thing: I'm not saying Nebraska IS the best one-loss team in the country—on my ballot, I would have Wisconsin and LSU ahead of them, and would really struggle with rating Ohio State. But there is a legitimate argument to be made for Nebraska to be in the discussion in terms of the one-loss teams that are waiting for a slip-up from Oregon or Auburn and a shot at the Big Crystal Football.
In playing the opportunity game, as the one-loss teams are, both the Big Ten and Pac-10 teams will be hurt for the final time by the lack of a championship game. Assuming teams win out, the teams with the strongest schedules going forward are Nebraska and LSU, in large part because they will get an extra game against a tough opponent in a conference championship game.
This could, of course, work against NU and LSU, as it has in years past. But particularly this year, where a one-loss team will likely have to make a case to vault either TCU or Boise State, or both. Those teams are going to need as much strength of schedule as they can get to make their argument.
The entire discussion may be academic. Oregon doesn't have a team left on its' schedule that the Ducks will not be prohibitive favorites over. Auburn has a tougher road with the Iron Bowl looming, although the SEC championship game matchup looks less daunting than in years past if the Tigers survive the Tide.
Personally, I am rooting for as much chaos as possible. The best-case scenario for me would be for Oregon and Auburn to lose, and have the only two remaining unbeaten teams be TCU and Boise State. If that happens, mark my words. Those two teams will NOT play for the national title. Should they? Of course. But the system is corrupt enough to ensure they won't. Hopefully that corruption will ultimately become so obvious and so egregious that the nation will no longer tolerate this farce of a system called the BCS, and we will all get the playoff system the fans and the players so richly deserve.
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