Texas Tech Football: Call Your Therapist! 2009 vs. 2010 Strictly by the Numbers

It doesn’t really matter how beautiful of a fall morning it is when you wake up to the reality of an ugly loss to Texas A&M.

The fall foliage set against a deep clear blue sky does nothing to mask the stark actuality that Texas Tech dropped a game to the Aggies in College Station and basically proved on field what we have feared all season...we’re not a very good football team.

The valiant commodity of hope is beginning to dwindle as the Red Raider gridiron squad continues to under-impress and under-execute week after painful week.

The defense can’t effectively shut opposing offenses down, and the offense can’t stay on the field long enough to let the “D” regroup.

In this type of desperate environment, turnovers and mistakes go from costly to destructive, ultimately thwarting any opportunity to win games against better opponents.

The bottom line is that Texas Tech has beaten teams that are not stellar (with the very real exception of Baylor) and lost to teams that are hot and cold, or mild.

Case in point: The Red Raiders have lost to teams that average only 47th nationally in total offense and 64th in total defense.

Alarmingly, Tech has beaten teams that combine to only rank an average of 76th in total offense and 78th in total defense. 

Throw Baylor out of the equation and the Red Raiders have beaten teams that average 93rd offensively and 89th defensively.

Keeping in mind that these rankings are out of a total of 120 teams, makes the wound even deeper and the pain in the gut even more pronounced.

Somebody get my therapist on the line..

Much preseason ado was made regarding the fact that the Red Raiders would more than likely would suffer a “small” set-back offensively (with the Pirate’s sudden dismissal) but improve defensively under resistance-minded Tommy Tuberville.

There would be more running, more balance on offense, but the “air raid” attack would still be featured in the fast-paced NASCAR scheme.

Defensively we would swarm to the ball, be physical and basically give opposing offenses a lot of trouble moving the ball.  This would be a huge improvement over the Texas Tech defenses of the past.  Right?

Obviously all of these preseason prophecies did not take into account personnel lost to graduation, injuries, suspensions and the caliber of teams we would be facing.

Additionally, surely it would take time for the entire program to adjust itself to a new coaching staff and an entire new system.

The Results

Putting all disclaimers aside, let’s take a look at some actual numbers which may provide some real solid insight as to why Texas Tech is 4-4 with four games remaining to be played.

First, we should remember that Tech returned seven starters on offense and six on defense from the 2009 squad.  

Included in these figures is the costly loss of a large portion of the “O” line and six of the top “D” linemen. That obviously would have hurt regardless of the coaching staff.

On the plus side, Tech returned two senior quarterbacks, two running backs, the five top receivers from 2009 and three of the four starters in the defensive secondary.  Clearly this would be considered an advantage regardless of the coaching staff.

That said, here is how Tech stacked up nationally both defensively and offensively in 2009 and then through eight games in 2010.

Defense

Total Defense                    No. 37                   21.8 points per game

Passing Defense                No. 70                   223.8 yards per game

Rushing Defense               No. 34                   125 yards per game

Offense

Total Offense                    No. 9                     36.7 points per game

Passing Offense               No. 2                     380.7 yards per game

Rushing Offense              No. 113                 81.9 yards per game

2010 (through eight games)

Defense

Total Defense                    No. 97                   32.6 points per game

Passing Defense                No. 118                 317.4 yards per game

Rushing Defense               No. 40                   132.1 yards per game

Offense

Total Offense                    No. 35                   31.9 points per game

Passing Offense                No. 9                     316.8 yards per game

Rushing Offense               No. 98                   116.1 yards per game

Offensively, Tech has scored 4.8 points per game less, lost 64 yards per game through the air and picked up 27 yards per game on the ground.

These numbers seem nominal until you consider that Texas Tech scored 481 total points in 2009, and have only managed 255 points thus far in 2010.

This means that the Red Raiders will have to score 56.5 points per game over the next four contests to match the 2009 scoring output.

But really the shocking regression from 2009 comes defensively, where we expected the biggest improvement.  Again, to be fair, there have been injuries, and James Willis was faced with finding young linemen to staff a new 3-4 scheme.

Regardless, the Red Raider defense has allowed 11 points more per game, 100 yards per game more through the air and a token 10 yards on the ground.

Tech’s 2009 defense (that was so questionable) ranked 37th nationally in points allowed while the 2010 edition ranks 97th.

That’s a 60-place free fall.

Shocking.

And here my friend is the most alarming statistic of all: in 2009 Tech allowed a grand total of 292 points for the entire season.  Thus far in 2010 the Red Raiders have given up 255 points which means that we are only 37 points away from last year’s entire total.

We have nine points per game to give up to beat 2009’s squad.

The Bottom Line

The numbers don’t lie, and you can't spin statistics: Texas Tech has taken significant steps backwards both offensively and defensively since 2009.

Obviously, Leach’s departure (regardless of anyone’s opinion of the details surrounding it) and Tuberville’s arrival have significantly affected the Red Raider football program, and it would be absurd to contend that a major change like this would not be met with some sort of temporary setback.

That said, as the Red Raider Nation continues, game by game, to hope for the breakout game, or at the very least the appearance that things are improving in Lubbock. Optimism is shrinking as winning games against formidable opponents is apparently not on the horizon.

Whether Texas Tech will turn the corner in 2010 and begin to show some promise under Tommy Tuberville and company remains to be seen.

One of the most difficult adjustments for the Texas Tech fan base has had to make in 2010 is the reversal from a mindset where the fan truly believed his/her team had a chance against any opponent, at any venue all the way until the final whistle (in spite of any in-game deficit), to one where confidence and faith are a scarce commodity.

Excitement and conviction are being replaced by dread and doubt.

How long will the Red Raider Nation have to wait for a team they can cheer for and celebrate?