Nebraska Cornhuskers Football: Previewing Game Against Missouri TIgers

For Nebraska fans watching the game against Missouri (October 30, 2:30 p.m. central, Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE, ABC regional coverage), YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF:

1. THE PLAN WORKS - 

In many ways, Bo Pelini's "peso" defense (having a "hybrid" who can play both safety and linebacker) is built to stop the Missouri-style spread attack. Offensively, the Tigers present exactly the type of match-up Nebraska's defense wants to force. We'll find out on Saturday if Pelini's design will work.

2. NU AVOIDS THE RED ZONE - 

While Missouri's overall defense isn't spectacular, the thing they do really well is play defense in the red zone. However, Nebraska has shown an uncanny ability this year to score from long distance. Out of the 39 times NU's offense has scored, 24 of them were from outside of the red zone.

If NU can continue their long distance trend, they can go a long way towards neutralizing Missouri's bend-but-don't-break defense.

3. THINGS GO WELL EARLY - 

Usually, having 85,000 of your closest friends cheering for you would be considered a good thing. But when those 85,000 friends are expecting you to do well, and you stub your toe coming out of the gates, sometimes the disquiet of the 85,000 can translate to jitters and nerves.

When NU went down 10 points early against Texas, and the passes started getting dropped and the tackles missed, the nerves and the tightness from the crowed crippled the entire team. If Missouri gets out to an early lead, the same thing could happen on Saturday.

YOU'LL BE SAD IF:

1. NU ABANDONS THE BASICS - 

Nebraska's struggles against Texas centered around ball security, and their defensive struggles against both Texas and Oklahoma State revolved around poor tackling.

Against a team of Missouri's caliber, and with the stakes on the line, NU can't afford to be lax in the foundational parts of the game.

2. GABBERT IS COMFORTABLE - 

As a junior, Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert has become a dangerous passer in Missouri's three-step passing offense. Conversely, Nebraska has struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, particularly with a four-man rush.

If Gabbert is given time to throw, he has the talent and the weapons around him to do damage.

3. NU FADES IN THE SPOTLIGHT - 

It's still a telling statistic that the Oklahoma State team NU defeated last week was Pelini's highest-ranked victory.

While NU has been close under Pelini, he has not yet showed the ability to get his teams over the hump and get the "signature win" the program has craved since Frank Solich black-flash-reversed Oklahoma in 2000. NU has a great opportunity to get that win against a highly-ranked Missouri team who Pelini built his defense to stop, but the players have to execute well to convert that opportunity into on-the-field success.

THE BIG PICTURE

It seemed an apostasy at the start of the season, but you read it here: The game against Missouri is more important than the game against Texas.

If NU wins on Saturday, they have a clear path to the Big XII title game (against Baylor, perhaps?) and the long-awaited BCS bowl return.

If NU loses, the division is all but lost, and the 2010 campaign will be looked on as a failure and a significant setback.

The teams are evenly matched enough to make the seven point spread lunacy. But, unless Missouri gets up early and brings back the Texas ghosts, Nebraska's defense should be good enough to keep the game close. The game may well turn on field goals and, if so, there are few players in the country better suited to win such a game than NU's MVP, Alex Henery.

FEARLESS FORECAST: Nebraska 20, Missouri 16

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