College Football Week 9 Picks: Power Ranking Best Big-Game Locks
It's time to make some college football Week 9 picks! This weekend's slate of games is chock-full of trap games for many undefeated and power conference teams. Many of the nation's top teams face their first true road tests this week, against teams who could very easily knock them out of the BCS picture.
With all of this potential chaos and heartbreak on the horizon, figuring out picks can be difficult, which is why we're ranking the 10 biggest games of the week by the confidence we have in the winner we pick. You'll see why both teams could win, and why we're so confident (or unconfident) in our picks.
10. Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions
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Why It's So Important: Both of these teams have faded horribly in recent weeks. The Nittany Lions seemed to climb out of their funk last week, but Michigan looks to be in another second-half tailspin, having dropped their last two games. Each team needs a win to salvage a season that's teetering on the brink of collapse.
Why Michigan Will Win: Michigan has Denard Robinson, the human highlight reel, and Penn State's defense hasn't exactly inspired confidence in recent weeks. Robinson gives the Wolverines a puncher's chance against anyone, and the Nittany Lions have folded against even mediocre opponents. If Michigan's defense can get its act together, this one could be all Wolverines.
Why Penn State Will Win: The Nittany Lions seemed to re-find their offensive rhythm last week, and Michigan's defense has been the culprit in both of their losses this season. Freshman quarterback Robert Bolden has been getting better and better, and the defense was excellent early in the year. If running back Evan Royster can get rolling, Penn State could get a big win. Happy Valley's a tough place for opponents to visit, and we've seen Rich Rodriguez fold in conference play in years past.
Who's the Pick: Penn State.
Confidence Meter: 3/10. The Nittany Lions need a few things to break their way in this one, and the Wolverines could easily leave Happy Valley with a big win.
9. Baylor Bears @ Texas Longhorns
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Why It's So Important: For Texas, this has been a wash of a season. A 4-3 record with losses to UCLA and Iowa State have been compounded by an inconsistent offense. If they want to salvage anything from this year, they have to beat Baylor. For Baylor, a win keeps them in the driver's seat in the Big 12 South for another week, and snaps a losing streak that dates back to Nov. 1, 1997. It also legitimizes the Bears' success in 2010, as even in a down year, the Longhorns are a pretty big pelt on the wall.
Why Baylor Will Win: Texas is 2-3 at home, and the offense has been maddeningly inconsistent. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III is a big time player, who runs his offense with aplomb. Jay Finley has been explosive running the football, and the Bears are looking like real contenders in the Big 12.
Why Texas Will Win: The Longhorns defense is still a strong unit, despite their loss to Iowa State last week. Texas hasn't lost three straight in Austin since before current coach Mack Brown arrived at the school, and we've seen that this team can win big games, evidenced by their upset of Nebraska two weeks ago. If they get their act together offensively, the Longhorns are a dangerous team.
Who's the Pick: Baylor.
Confidence Meter: 3.5/10. Texas isn't an easy school to play on the road, even in a rebuilding year like this, and we're still not sure if the Bears are for real or not.
8. Auburn Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels
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Why It's So Important: This one's a classic trap game. Auburn is looking to keep its undefeated record intact, while Ole Miss is looking to claw back into the bowl picture.
Why Ole Miss Will Win: Auburn's defense hasn't been all that great yet in 2010, and behind quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and running back Brandon Bolden, the Rebels offense is capable of lighting up the scoreboard on them. Auburn has won their two road games by a combined six points, and neither Mississippi State nor Kentucky has the weapons the Rebels have.
Why Auburn Will Win: Who can stop junior quarterback and Heisman-favorite Cam Newton? The Rebels can't stop anyone, anytime, anywhere, and the Tigers offense has looked solid in 2010. The defense hasn't been awful, and Ole Miss has been locked down this season. In years past, the Tigers wouldn't have had the firepower to keep up with the Rebels, but this year, their offense might be even better than the one from Oxford.
Who's the Pick: Auburn in a shootout.
Confidence Meter: 5/10. This one's got all the makings of a shootout, and whenever that's on the table, anything can happen.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Kansas State Wildcats
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Why It's So Important: Oklahoma State has yet to go up against a tough team on the road and needs a big win to legitimize their early season success. For Kansas State, they're trying to get their season on track after dropping two of their last three games.
Why Oklahoma State Will Win: The Cowboys offense has been simply fantastic this season, averaging 48.3 points per game. Teams just can't keep up with OK State's high-octane offense, and the Wildcats defense has looked somewhat vulnerable in recent weeks, giving up 45-plus to both Nebraska and Baylor. Quarterback Brandon Weeden has flourished in the Cowboys' system, racking up 2,200 yards and 21 touchdowns through the air.
Why Kansas State Will Win: Have you seen Oklahoma State's defense? Neither have the Cowboys, who are allowing 30.6 points per game. Running back Damien Thomas and quarterback Carson Coffman are capable of putting up some big numbers, and Oklahoma State's defense won't be able to stop them. Their defense isn't great, but the Cowboys offense can be reigned in, as we saw last week against Nebraska. If the Wildcats defense is up to the task, they'll win this one.
Who's the pick: Kansas State.
Confidence Meter: 5/10. The Cowboys are fully capable of winning this game, but they'll be without talented wideout Justin Blackmon, which could be the difference in the game.
6. Missouri Tigers @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
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Why It's So Important: Both teams BCS title hopes ride on this game. Mizzou needs to win to keep climbing the polls, while Nebraska could use a win to get back into the conversation.
Why Nebraska Will Win: Taylor Martinez is a fantastic quarterback. The freshman can run the ball, throw the ball, and probably catch passes and serve concessions to fans. The defense is better than they showed against Oklahoma State, but in the event of a collapse, the offense is now capable of sticking around in a gunfight. The Huskers have one of the best home-field advantages in football, and Mizzou hasn't played a team like Nebraska away from Columbia.
Why Mizzou Will Win: The Tigers have looked great in 2010 behind quarterback Blaine Gabbert. The big Missouri native has torched defenses on a routine basis, throwing for over 1,800 yards this season. The defense has been excellent, allowing just over 13 points per game this season.
Who's the Pick: Nebraska. Mizzou can't handle Lincoln's crowd.
Confidence Meter: 6/10. Nebraska should win this game, but Mizzou's shown an ability to hang with the college football elites in previous games.
5. Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans
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Why It's So Important: Oregon needs this game to stay on the BCS title hunt, while USC has nothing to lose. Sound like a trap game to anyone else?
Why USC Will Win: The Trojans' offense is one of college football's best, and one of the few capable of keeping pace with Oregon. The Trojans' defense looked much improved against Cal, and all they need to do is keep it close. Even now, the Coliseum is a tough place for opponents to come and play, and sophomore quarterback Matt Barkley's a big-game player who steps up when the lights come on. Plus, Oregon has yet to win a meaningful game on the road.
Why Oregon Will Win: Oregon's defense has shut down almost every opponent they've faced, while the offense has lit up some solid defenses (52 points on Stanford?). USC's defense can't hang with the Ducks ultra high-speed attack led by quarterback Darron Thomas and LaMichael James.
Who's the Pick: Oregon.
Confidence Meter: 6.5/10. No one's proven they can stop the Ducks' offense yet; why should we believe USC's shoddy defense can get the job done? Still, the Trojans pose one of the biggest threats to Oregon's undefeated run and can't be overlooked.
4. Michigan State Spartans @ Iowa Hawkeyes
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Why It's So Important: Michigan State has yet to win convincingly outside of the state of Michigan, and a wn would silence those dismissing them as BCS contenders. Iowa's fresh off a heart-breaker of a loss to Wisconsin, but are still in the Big Ten title hunt and could head to the Rose Bowl.
Why Michigan State Will Win: The Spartans are riding high on a balanced offense behind senior quarterback Kirk Cousins and running backs Edwin Baker and La'Veon Bell. The defense is strong too, and the Spartans seem to just know how to win football games.
Why Iowa Will Win: The Hawkeyes have one of the best offenses in football behind senior quarterback and fourth-quarter hero Ricky Stanzi. The defense is strong, and Michigan State lacks the kind of players necessary to beat them. Plus, the Spartans haven't passed a road test yet (Northwestern should have won that game), and Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest stadiums to visit in the country.
Who's the Pick: Iowa. The Spartans return to Earth this week.
Confidence Meter: 7/10. Iowa's got the talent to beat Michigan State, and the Spartans were shaky in their last road game.
3. Utah Utes @ Air Force Falcons
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Why It's So Important: A win helps boost the Utes' slender BCS hopes. Air Force is still gunning for the Mountain West crown, and they have to beat Utah to get it.
Why Utah Will Win: Can anyone hang with the Utes? Their offense is scoring 47.4 points per game, while their defense is giving up just 12.9. Air Force has faded badly, losing two straight games.
Why Air Force Will Win: The Falcons run the ball down your throat and have the benefit of home-field advantage. This rivalry has been incredibly close over the years, with 17 of the past 26 meetings decided by eight or fewer points. And crazy things happen in close games.
Who's the Pick: Utah.
Confidence Meter: 8/10. It's going to be close, and the Falcons could pull it out, but I don't see Utah falling this week.
2. Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina State Wolfpack
9 of 10
Why It's So Important: The Seminoles need to keep winning to keep their slim BCS title hopes alive, while the Wolfpack need a win to get back on track, having dropped two of their last three.
Why Florida State Will Win: Jimbo Fisher's team outclasses the Wolfpack at every position. Their offense is better, their defense is better, and we've seen that NC State can't hang with top teams in their last three games.
Why NC State Will Win: FSU's lone loss came on the road, and with their high-powered offense, the Wolfpack have a puncher's chance against a not impenetrable Seminole defense.
Who's the Pick: Florida State.
Confidence Meter: 9/10. Could be a trap, but there's no reason for Florida State to lose to the Wolfpack.
1. Stanford Cardinal @ Washington Huskies
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Why It's So Important: Washington has seen its season come off the rails, but a win would help them to get back on track. Stanford's still gunning for a BCS bid, and a win would help them get there.
Why Stanford Will Win: Washington has looked pretty bad at times in 2010, and even in defeat, the Cardinal didn't look awful. Quarterback Andrew Luck is a Heisman candidate, and the defense is much better than the unit you saw against Oregon. The Huskies' defense ranks 102nd in the nation in points allowed.
Why Washington Will Win: The Cardinal could get caught looking ahead to their clash with 15th-ranked Arizona next week, and the Huskies have the talent to knock them off. Quarterback Jake Locker has battled injuries all year, but if he's healthy, he could give the Stanford defense fits. The Huskies home field is a tough place to play, and if Stanford's not ready to go, they could lose this one.
Who's the Pick: Stanford.
Confidence Meter: 10/10. The Cardinal have no business losing this game. They've won at home, on the road, and in tough venues. Stanford's a lock to win this one.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
