College Football Predictions Week 8: Washington at Arizona

As usual, we are here to preview the final NCAA game of the night on Saturday because, let’s face it, it's the bettors’ final chance to either avoid a loss to the day or simply add to their winnings.

Both these teams enter the weekend in a four-way tie at 2-1 for second in the Pac-10 behind unbeaten Oregon. Thus, neither can afford a loss because that would probably end any conference title hopes. The Huskies and Wildcats both do have games with Oregon remaining.

Washington enters off a 35-34 double-overtime win over Oregon State last Saturday. Jake Locker threw a career-high five touchdown passes, but that’s a tad misleading since two came in the overtimes.

Locker finished 21-of-35 for 286 yards and ran for another 60 yards—the kind of performance scouts have been expecting as Locker started the season projected as the 2011 No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. The Huskies can’t seem to find any consistency, however, as they have alternated losses and wins so far this year.

Arizona was just three points from being unbeaten, falling 29-27 at home to those Beavers two weeks ago.

Last week, the Wildcats were sluggish in beating a bad Washington State team, 24-7. But part of that can be contributed to Arizona losing starting QB Nick Foles to an injury at the start of the second quarter. Without the Pac-10’s leading passer, the Wildcats decided to stay on the ground, running 47 times, but for only 142 yards.

Washington leads the all-time series 17-8-1, and won last year, 36-33, in Seattle. Arizona had led that game by 12 with three minutes remaining—Foles had a huge night.  

Washington at Arizona: Team Breakdowns

Foles is definitely out for this game, meaning Matt Scott starts at quarterback for Arizona. He was 14-for-20 for 139 yards with a pick in relief against Wazzu. Scott started three games last year, beating Central Michigan and Northern Arizona before losing at Iowa.

Foles then took over. Scott does offer more of a running threat than Foles, who is much more accurate. In his career, Scott has averaged 6.3 yards per carry while completing nearly 60 percent of his 117 career passes.

Another Wildcat likely out is defensive tackle Justin Washington with a knee injury. He has four sacks this season and has been the interior lineman getting the biggest push into the pocket. Star WR Juron Criner, who sat out most of the second half last week because of a lingering turf toe injury, will play.

The key Washington injury is to Locker. He missed a few early-week practices because of an illness and bruised thigh, among other things. UW coach Steve Sarkisian said he didn't think there was any doubt Locker would start, but that his QB may not be 100 percent. Sarkisian also is hoping for the return of WR Devin Aguilar, who has 18 catches and two touchdowns in four games. He's missed the last two games with a pulled hip flexor.

Washington at Arizona Betting Odds

The Wildcats are 6.5-point favorites with the total set at 53.5, according to college football odds. Approximately 60 percent of the lean is on Arizona. If you wanted to take the Cats and give the points, it’s a good thing you waited because this line opened as high as 8.0. It was down to 6.0, so you may want to jump ASAP before it may get back to 7.0. The total has dropped about a half point. UW is 2-4 ATS overall and 1-1 on the road. UA is 3-3 ATS and 2-2 at home.

Washington at Arizona betting trends

The Huskies are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 road games.
Arizona is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 as a home favorite of 3.5-10.
The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
The underdog is 11-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings.

Washington at Arizona Betting Predictions and College Football Picks

Arizona’s defense, which leads the Pac-10 in total defense (284.3 yards per game), scoring defense (13.3 points per game, No. 7 nationally) and rushing defense (89.7 yards per game), would seem to be too much for the Huskies if Locker’s not 100 percent. UW wins 75 percent of the time when it has a 100-yard rusher, which has happened four times this year (one of them a loss to Arizona State), but it’s hard to see that happening against the Wildcats.

Certainly UW has a huge edge at quarterback with Locker over Scott, but not many other places. I don’t like this at 7.0 points, but I’d take Arizona and give the points—but I love the "under."