College Football Picks Week 8: 5 Spreads Vegas Got Totally Wrong
My College Football Picks for Week 8 offer great news for bettors:
Vegas put out some really bad point spreads, giving everyone great opportunities for some smart bets.
Teams like Michigan State, and Nebraska are seemingly undervalued; while LSU, Ole Miss, and others are overvalued.
So here are five of this week's lines that are completely off, and I'll tell you why.
No. 7 Michigan State (-6.5) at Northwestern
1 of 5
What the line should be: Michigan State (-13.5)
Why?: With Ohio State falling to Wisconsin last week, the Spartans are clearly the class of the Big Ten.
They’ve beaten Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois, and it looks like their only chance at defeat will come against Iowa.
Northwestern is one of the worst one-loss teams in the country, losing to Purdue and it's third-string quarterback, and beating Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, and Minnesota by a combined eight points.
The Wildcats will be lucky to win one more game.
Michigan State will dominate this matchup, as Vegas seriously overrated Northwestern’s inflated 5-1 record.
Prediction: Michigan State 34, Northwestern 14
Ole Miss (+9.5) at No. 23 Arkansas
2 of 5
What the line should be: Ole Miss (+14.5)
Why?: It seems like Vegas was over thinking this one.
Arkansas does have two losses, but they came against Alabama and Auburn, perhaps the two best teams in the country.
Ole Miss has lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt, and just isn’t all that good.
The Rebels give up 242 passing yards per game, and Ryan Mallett, who is poised to start after suffering a concussion last week, should light up the scoreboard.
This game shouldn’t even be remotely close.
Prediction: Arkansas 44, Ole Miss 20
No. 16 Nebraska (-6) at No. 14 Oklahoma State
3 of 5
What the Line Should Be: Nebraska (-13.5)
Why?: Oklahoma State comes into this game at 6-0, but their only notable wins were against Texas A&M and Texas Tech.
Nothing to write home about.
Their offense puts up gaudy passing numbers behind Brandon Weeden, but they haven’t faced a real defense yet.
Prince Amukamara and the Huskers' incredible defense will force the Sooners to be one-dimensional and run on offense; something that they are just not capable of doing.
On offense, Nebraska should dominate the Sooners, who lack anyone who can contain Taylor Martinez.
Don’t be fooled by Nebraska’s lower ranking; they will cruise.
Prediction: Nebraska 37, Oklahoma State 16
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 6 LSU (+6) at No. 4 Auburn
4 of 5
What the line should be: LSU (+14.5)
Why?: Yes, LSU is undefeated.
And yes, they have a great defense.
But Auburn’s only weakness is their secondary, which gives up a whopping 267.1 yards per game.
Fortunately the Tigers can’t throw worth a dime.
This is a horrible matchup for LSU, as their greatest advantage, their rush defense, is matched up against the nearly unstoppable Cam Newton.
Auburn can score on anyone, and LSU is no exception.
LSU can’t score on Auburn, and they should get blown out here, despite what the rankings and the point spread might suggest.
Prediction: Auburn: 31, LSU 13
Texas A&M (-14) at Kansas
5 of 5
What the line should be: Texas A&M (-23.5)
Why?: Kansas is really, really bad.
They lost their last two games (to Kansas State and Baylor) by a combined 100 points.
That isn’t a misprint.
They also lost to North Dakota State and Southern Miss.
The Aggies, on the other hand, can light up the scoreboard behind Jerrod Johnson, and nearly took out Arkansas and Oklahoma State.
Texas A&M isn’t a great team, but they are in another league than the Jayhawks.
The Aggies could easily win this by 40, and a two-touchdown spread is quite generous to bettors.
Thanks, Vegas.
Prediction: Texas A&M 48, Kansas 14.
Matt Rudnitsky is a student at the University of Michigan and a writing intern at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Mattrud
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
