Since Dave Wannstedt Took Over, Rutgers Has Become Pitt's No. 1 Nemesis

The Pitt-Rutgers series is a tale of two coaches' successes and failures at Pitt. Walt Harris lost just once to the Scarlet Knights in 1998 by four points. Dave Wannstedt has beaten the Knights just once, last season by seven points.

The Rutgers offense always brought out the best in the Pitt defense when Walt was head coach. Scores like 42-0 in 2001, 23-3 in 2002, and 41-17 in 2004 lulled Pitt fans into a state complacency. Maybe the much-maligned Paul Rhoades designed defenses that stopped Rutgers' blitz packages. Perhaps Pitt's passing game directed by Harris with its All-American receivers was just too sophisticated for the Rutgers' secondary to handle.

The Rutgers teams Wannstedt has faced have been much better than those of the Harris' era. Fans clearly remember the 2006 game when a scrambling Tyler Palko tried to win the game himself and a Pitt win would have put the Panthers in the top 25. Tino Sunseri is not anywhere near Palko's skill level just yet, but he will have to establish control early in tomorrow's contest if Pitt is to prevail.

Rutgers brings to Heinz Field the most complicated defense Pitt will face all season.  Wannstedt told reporters during his presser:

“Last week (we faced) a 4-3, physical team—here’s my guy, I gotta block him. This week they’re moving, they’re twisting, they’re firing guys. So now it’s a little bit of a combination, a lot more of the mental application to getting the job done (along) with the physical. If you look at their team, three of their wins they were behind in the fourth quarter.”

Pitt's offensive line is still pretty green with only three games under their belt. Whether they can handle Rutgers' blitzes along with Sunseri's ability to connect on his passing game early on will determine the outcome. There is no better time for Sunseri to establish a connection with Baldwin. Of course Sunseri needs all the help he can get from Lucas Nix at guard and Jordan Gibbs at tackle.

The advantage in fourth quarter play definitely belongs to Rutgers.The Knights have allowed just three points this season in the fourth but have outscored teams 46-6 in the fourth and overtime.  The two times the Panthers had opportunities to storm back this season resulted in defeats—in overtime at Utah during the fourth quarter at Notre Dame.

With emotions running high at Rutgers after Eric LeGrand's injury, it's difficult to peg what mood the Knights will be in. They will face a Pitt team finally beginning to believe in themselves. Wannstedt said the game would be won as much in the film room as on the field.

Rutgers plus-13 looks way off when you factor in Wannstedt's losses to his former assistants—Schiano the past five years and Shannon this season—and the opportunity Rutgers quarterbacks have had to post impressive passing stats against Pitt under Wannstedt.

Pitt is focused now and has played a much tougher schedule than the Knights. The Panthers are aware of Rutgers' recent dominance in the series. Pitt should pull this one out, 17-16, but don't be surprised if Rutgers comes back in the fourth quarter to win.