BCS Standings 2010: Are Iowa Hawkeyes Out Of Championship Picture At 15th?

As early as July, the Iowa Hawkeyes were in the pleasant position of having their name thrown around in connection with a possible National Championship. 

All of that appeared to go out the window when Iowa lost 34-27 in the desert of Tucson, Ariz on Sept. 18.  Is that dream really dead though?

Four weeks and three games later, Iowa debuts at No. 15 in the first BCS standings of the 2010 season.  If history is any indicator, the Hawkeyes are about as close to a National Championship as mankind is to colonizing Uranus. 

This doesn't appear to be your average college football season, though.  Is it still in the realm of possibility for Hawk fans to get to see their beloved team in Glendale? 

More than a few things have to happen.

The Hawkeyes have to win out

There's no two ways about this.  In the history of the BCS, only once has a two-loss team played for (and won) the Coach's Trophy.  That was Jan 7, 2008 when 11-2 LSU knocked off 11-1 Ohio State 38-24.  It's not happened before or since.

The years 2003, 2006 and 2008 all saw one-loss teams going on to hoist the crystal football, however.  While most years have seen teams with perfect records crowned the champion of champions, it's not always been that way.  A single loss does not the death bell toll.

Iowa isn't LSU and they don't play in the SEC.  As strange as this year has been already, it's a huge stretch to think that a two-loss Big Ten team would find its way into the National Championship.  This is particularly true given that teams like Boise State and TCU are likely to go undefeated from this point out and would likely get the nod over a two-loss anybody. 

Iowa has to win every game remaining on their schedule, and winning a few of them in convincing fashion might be necessary too.

The schedule helps, as it stands now

If Iowa does go on to finish with an 11-1 season, the strength of their schedule might be a big bonus.  At first, it didn't look quite as good as it does now and, for that, the Hawkeyes have a few people to thank.

This coming week, Iowa hosts Wisconsin.  The Badgers started the year hot and highly ranked, but were weak against Arizona State and were exposed by Michigan State.  They rebounded by stomping on Big Ten favorite Ohio State though, which has propelled them back inside the top 15 of the BCS standings.

Michigan State meanwhile, has put together a perfect 7-0 start, which includes wins over Notre Dame, Michigan and the aforementioned Wisconsin Badgers.  Thanks to Wisconsin's win over the Buckeyes, that Spartan victory looks even better than it did before. 

In the next-to-last game of the regular season, the Hawkeyes host Ohio State.  While the Buckeyes looked anything but conference champion material in their loss in Madison, they're still a formidable opponent, and will likely still be ranked in or near the top 10.

If those three teams continue to do what they've been doing, and Iowa beats all three, then the Hawkeyes will have faced four ranked teams this season (including Arizona) and will have beaten three of them.  That's not too shabby, and is well within the realm of National Champion material.

The loss to Arizona happened on the road, which might help Iowa a little with the computers, and if the human-types take a good look at that loss, they'll realize that Iowa staged a 20-point second half turnaround.  It might garner them a little extra respect. 

The worst thing that could happen (other than losing one of those marquee matches) would be for any of the Big Ten three to collapse and weaken Iowa's strength-of-schedule.

They need help from the BCS teams

By "BCS teams" let me clarify that I mean the BCS automatic qualifying conference teams. 

Right now there are 10 undefeated teams sitting ahead of the Hawkeyes in the BCS standings.  As good as I might believe this Iowa squad is, I'm not naive.  There's no way a one-loss Hawkeye team would get selected for a National Title berth over an undefeated Auburn, LSU or even Utah.  It just won't happen.

What are the chances that Iowa could find itself in good one-loss company?  Not as bad as you might think, actually.

Four of Oklahoma's last six games are on the road, including showdowns against No. 11 Missouri and No. 14 Oklahoma State.  While the Sooners should be favored in both of those matches, it's not at all impossible to think that they could drop one somewhere. 

Oregon still faces the same bipolar UCLA team that destroyed Texas.  They also have the same California team that destroyed UCLA.  They also have to travel on the road to face USC and have yet to take on No. 18 Arizona.  There's plenty that could happen there.

No. 4 Auburn takes on No. 6 LSU this weekend, so there's another undefeated in there that won't be very soon.  The Hawkeyes will have the opportunity to take care of Michigan State themselves, and Missouri has to survive back-to-back games against Oklahoma and No. 16 Nebraska. 

To put it bluntly, we've not even come close to seeing the last of the unbeatens falling. 

It would help mightily however, if a few of those teams lost to someone who wasn't ranked in the top 15 or 20.  Teams (rightly) don't fall very far when they drop to a rated opponent, so Iowa needs a little extra boost by having a non-ranked team step up to the plate somewhere along the line, just for insurance measures.

There are only two teams that could go undefeated and still not make it into the national title game when everyone else falls.  Obviously, those two teams are Boise State and TCU.  Right, wrong, or otherwise, their collective schedules will hurt them down the stretch.

Everyone else though, has to falter, or Iowa can hope for no better than a top five finish to the year.

A little help from Boise State and TCU wouldn't hurt

The Broncos and Horned Frogs got their dream situation when they entered the preseason Coaches Poll inside the top five.  That placed them well within range of getting their first shot at a National Title.

However, even as the pixels on computer screens around the country were still drying, people were laying out scenarios where those two teams could still fail to make the big show.  There was a lot of football to be played, after all.

Halfway through the season, they've taken some lumps by being left out of the top two in the BCS standings, but they're still hanging around and in prime position to move in when-and-if the top teams falter again.

If everyone else fails somewhere along the line, and one or both teams remain undefeated, it would be incredibly difficult for the BCS to justify holding them out of the National Championship Bowl.  In fact, stories have now been circulating about how both teams could end up in the big show at the same time.

If Iowa has any hope at all of rebounding to play for a National Title, they really need one or both of those teams to drop.  Their schedules are weak by comparison, but not weak enough.  The only guarantee Iowa would have of leap-frogging them is for the Broncos and/or Horned Frogs to suffer a loss.

As unfortunate as that might be for Boise State and TCU, it could only be beneficial to the Hawkeyes.

There's still Alabama, Ohio State, Stanford and Wisconsin to deal with

Even if all of the undefeated teams falter, there are still some one-loss teams ahead of the Hawkeyes in the standings.

Of the four one-loss teams rated ahead of Iowa, the Hawkeyes are lucky enough to face two of them.  Wisconsin comes to town this weekend, and Ohio State visits on Nov. 20.  As far as those two are concerned, Iowa holds their destiny in their own hands.

That doesn't help them much where Alabama and Stanford are concerned, though. 

The Crimson Tide still have to travel to No. 6 LSU, and host No. 24 Mississippi State and No. 4 Auburn.  Given that the Tide are currently 1-1 against rated opponents, there's reason to hope that they won't stay above the Hawkeyes forever.

Stanford might be a little tougher.  Their only loss thus far is to No. 2 Oregon, and the only other rated team on their schedule is No. 18 Arizona. 

The Cardinal have to contend with a what-will-happen-next Pac-10 schedule, though.  Outside of Oregon, everyone else in the conference appears to be comfortably beating up on everyone else.  At least, it looks that way so far.

Assuming that either Boise State or TCU will go undefeated; and assuming that Iowa will be in with a host of one-loss teams; the Hawkeyes need to not only defeat MSU and OSU, but need 'Bama and Stanford to take another loss somewhere. 

Iowa's strength of schedule might propel them above Stanford, but won't do anything to help them get past Alabama.  They need the Tide to lose or they have zero chance of getting in.

The only other hope they have is if BSU and TCU both lose, and everyone else takes two losses.  The chances of that happening are about as good as the chances I'll win Mr. Universe sometime in the next decade.  Seeing as how I'm 6'1", 175 pounds and can't tell my pectoral muscles from my abdominals...that's not happening.

Can it be done?

Let's be honest about two things:

First, this is a long shot, no matter how you look at it.  Iowa isn't the perennial power house program that gets a little extra love from voters like some other teams.  They needed a perfect season, combined with some big wins (like over MSU and OSU) to really get their shot. 

It didn't happen.  In just their third game of the year, any honest hope of a National Championship went out the window.  What they're playing for now is a Big Ten title and/or a BCS bowl bid.  Either of those goals would be enough to consider this season a success, but a National Title likely isn't anywhere in the picture.

Second, stranger things have happened, however.  As I mentioned before, LSU won the title with two losses on their record.  While Iowa couldn't pull off the same feat, it's not at all unthinkable that Iowa has seen their only loss of the season and one loss is good enough to be in the discussion.

Of course it also requires some help, but—unless you're Alabama, Florida, Texas or USC (in a non-sanction year)—everyone needs a little help to get to the Championship Bowl. 

There are plenty of reasons to think that the top two teams in the BCS standings won't be there for long, and plenty of reasons to think that a few top 10 teams are about to be unseated.  With Iowa's remaining schedule, it's entirely possible that they could be inside the top 10 within the next two weeks. 

If that happens, then it's game on.  A victory over Ohio State could easily propel them within the top five.  Then, it's just a matter of needing a couple of other teams to lose a single game, and the discussion could turn to whether or not a one-loss Iowa should leapfrog an undefeated Boise State or TCU.

It can happen.  It really can.

Don't get your hopes too high though, Iowa fans.  There's many a slip twixt a cup and a lip.  We can discuss all day what the possibilities are, but Iowa's hopes ultimately come down to one thing.

Iowa has to beat the opponents directly in front them, and let the rest fall where it may.