Bowling with the Irish: Notre Dame's Bowl Outlook for the 2010-2011 Season

If one word were to describe the Notre Dame football season so far, it would have to be "inconsistent." At times, the Irish have played well enough to compete with anyone. At other times, they've made Western Michigan look good.

Grinding to a .500 record at the midpoint, and beginning the second half of the season with a blow-out win over Western Michigan to pull to 4-3, isn't turning any pollsters' heads.

Still, one of the losses was to now No. 7 Michigan State in overtime. Stanford, the only contest in which Notre Dame was truly beaten, has proven to be a serious BCS contender. One must question how far the Irish are from BCS contention.

With conference re-alignment and bowl tie-in shifts already in motion, Notre Dame needs to begin to adopt a BCS-or-Bust mindset because non-BCS contests are suddenly becoming few and far between.

To land in a BCS bowl, Notre Dame has to achieve a special set of circumstances. They must be ranked in the Top 14 at the end of the season to be eligible. They automatically qualify if they are in the Top 8. They can't sneak in at No. 25 as the ACC winner often does, or un-ranked as the Big East winner is known to do—they must actually be determined worthy by the voters.

This season, winning out would give the Irish a respectable body of work. A 9-3 record would include wins over USC; a Top-15, one-loss Utah team (assuming a TCU victory); as well as solid wins over a decent Purdue team (4-2 now), and hopefully  against Pittsburgh (3-3 with some very winnable games upcoming), Tulsa (4-3), Navy (4-2) and Army (4-3), all with winning records.

Include the fact that they were competitive in every contest (even Stanford was close until the end), and the Irish may wind up in the Top 14 when the final BCS rankings come out.

Beating USC and/or Utah would also be a feat that no Notre Dame team has accomplished in more than a decade. It has actually been that long since the Irish have beaten a team with a Top-15 ranking...or USC.

Even finishing 9-3 doesn't guarantee the Irish a spot in the BCS. BCS darlings Ohio State and Texas are at the moment on the outside looking in, and two SEC teams will almost certainly get into the dance, as well as Boise State. There are only 10 slots, six for the conference winners, four for at-large bids.

At 9-3, earning one of those four slots over the second place Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC teams, as well as Boise State, TCU, or Utah, seems highly improbable.

The next most logical landing spot for the Irish is in the Champs Sports Bowl on December 28th.

The Champs Sports Bowl, a lesser offender in the terrible name contest, typically matches the second place ACC squad versus the second place Big East team in the Orlando Citrus Bowl.

The bowl has the right to select Notre Dame once every four years if the Irish finish at least 7-5 and are no more than two games worse than the second Big East team.

With every team in the Big East already holding three losses behind leader West Virginia and sure-to-lose-again Rutgers and Syracuse (who haven't played any of their top-end conference foes), the schedule requirement should be easy to attain.

At 7-5, Notre Dame could lose to USC, Utah, or both, and still probably be invited to this game. There will be disheartened fans in some Big East town, but a second tier bowl can't pass up the opportunity to have Notre Dame and the media attention that the Irish draw in even a lack-luster year.

Beyond the Champs Sports Bowl there is the first Pinstripe Bowl.

Held in New York's Yankee Stadium, a trip here could mean a third trip to the NYC metro area as well as a second contest in the "House that a Billion Dollars Built." The Irish would more than likely play a Big East team in what would surely be a cold and pointless bowl game.

The Irish would be the selection at 6-6 if the Big 12 could not qualify an eighth team.

Beyond that, the picture becomes muddy no matter what Notre Dame's record is.

The previous agreement that Notre Dame shared with the Big East and the Gator and Sun Bowls has expired, with the Sun Bowl now fielding an ACC team and the Gator now hosting the SEC and the Pac-10, 12, 14, 16, or whatever.

In fact, there are no other tie-ins for the Irish.

Notre Dame is further selected to bowls based on other conferences not having enough teams to fill their obligations.

Bowls to watch are the Little Caesar's Bowl and the Dallas Football Classic.

The Little Caesar's Bowl, formerly known as the Motor City Bowl, matches the first or second place MAC team versus the sixth or seventh Big Ten team at Ford Field on the day after Christmas. With typically two Big Ten teams finding the BCS, and several not meeting bowl eligibility, there is often a vacancy.

The Dallas Football Classic is the game that will replace the Cotton Bowl at the Cotton Bowl now that the actual Cotton Bowl has moved to Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

The game features the eighth Big 12 team and the seventh or eighth Big Ten team. Each conference could send a pair of squads to the BCS and fail to qualify enough schools to meet their obligations, leaving at least one if not two open slots in Dallas on New Year's Day.

Notre Dame could win out. Even if they do, don't expect the Irish to fall into the BCS. There are simply too many teams ahead of them that won't lose enough.

A win against Utah or USC would secure a quality bowl berth in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Anything less and plan on seeing the Irish some place cold this holiday season.