College Football: In SRS Flip-Flop, Auburn, LSU, TCU and BSU Trade Places

The top 4 on SRS didn’t change members, but they did all move.  So Hawaii beat Nevada, does that mean Nevada was rated too high?  Or is Hawaii not rated high enough in the standard polls?  Some odd things have happened with a very topsy-turvy NCAA Week 7.  As the season continues, as most computer rankings work, SRS will become more accurate as well. 

So how are the rankings created? 

First, the easy one: The whole point of me starting a ranking system 15 years ago was to remove any and all bias (that’s what they all say). The only teams I might have any sort of bias towards are the small Boise States of the world (no, I don’t have them No. 1) or my favorite team, Fresno State (not ranked). 

I’ve tried to come up with the rationale that every sports announcer I’ve ever heard brings up: Conference rankings (check), Road vs. Away (check), and who did you play (double-check).

As I said before, I’ve been doing this privately for over 15 years, and every year there have been slight changes to it. Usually by the end of the season, I see more improvements I can make, and I do that for the following season. By no stretch is it perfect, but I think it’s getting there.

So what are the specifics? It starts by generating a ranking for each conference. This is done by generating a win-loss record for each conference against the other conferences. For the purpose of this system, I consider each division a conference (for example, the SEC West is a conference—so are the independents).

This is modified by determining who those wins are against. For example, the Big Ten loses some of its power by scheduling lots of MAC teams. I take the total and divide it by how many teams are in the conference to normalize the value, and then take a ranking of that value.

As of Oct. 18, 2010, the conference rankings are as follows, with last week’s ranking in parenthesis:

17. MAC East (17)

16. MAC West (14)

15. Sun Belt (15)

14. C-USA East (16)

13. Big East (13)

12. C-USA West (10)

11. WAC (11)

10. MWC (9)

9.   ACC Atlantic (12)

8.   ACC Coastal (8)

7.   SEC East (6)

6.   Pac-10 (4)

5.   Big Ten (5)

4.   Independents (7)

3.   Big 12 North (3)

2.   Big 12 South (2)

1.   SEC West (1)

After determining the conference rankings, I generate values that a team would receive for playing another team. Values are generated for a Home Win, a Home Loss, a Road Win, and a Road Loss.

Each of the values is derived from the Home Win, which is formed by taking the team's place in the conference (first, second, third, etc.), inverting it so more points are awarded for beating the team, and multiplying it by the inversed conference ranking. This is then normalized again for the number of teams in the conference.

For example, if the first place team in the first place conference is Alabama, and Arkansas beats Alabama, they will earn 102 points. This is because Alabama was in first place (inversed = 7 multiplied by inversed conference ranking = 17, 7 * 17 = 102). 

Losses are similar, though there is no inverting. Thus an Arkansas loss will only cause them to lose two points (Place in Conference = 1, Conference Rank = 1, 1 * 1 = 1). I added an additional modifier of two if you are lost at home, so 1 * 2 = 2. A Road Win is the same as a home win, except the value is multiplied by two, and a Road Loss takes the Home Loss and divides it by two. 

Did you follow all of that? If not, don’t worry about it; just know that it is under constant improvement, and again, this where I think they will be if they continue to do what they did last year. I’ll go in reverse order, like a Top 10 list:

LW = Last Week; BW = Best Win; WL = Worst Loss

25. Utah (6-0), 141: (LW: --), W @ Wyoming (21); BW = @Iowa St; WL = N/A

24. Ohio St. (6-1), 151: (LW: 11), L @ Wisconsin (-11); BW = @Illinois; WL = @Wisconsin

23. Stanford (5-1), 155: (LW: 18), BYE; BW = @UCLA; WL = @Oregon

22. North Carolina St. (5-2), 157: (LW: 17), L @ East Carolina (-28); BW = @Georgia Tech; WL = @East Carolina

21. Temple (4-2), 158: (LW: 22), W vs. Bowling Green (2); BW = @Army; WL = @Penn St

20. Oregon St. (3-3), 160: (LW: 9), L @ Washington (-7); BW = @Arizona; WL = @Washington

19. Nevada (5-1), 164: (LW: 10), L @ Hawaii (-7); BW = @BYU; Worst Loss = @Hawaii

18. Wisconsin (6-1), 167: (LW: --), W vs. Ohio St (57); BW = Ohio St; WL = @Michigan St

17. USC (5-2), 168: (LW: --), W vs. Cal (29); BW = @Hawaii; Worst Loss = Washington

16. Florida St. (6-1), 172: (LW: 15), W vs. Boston College (18); BW = @Miami (FL); WL = @Oklahoma

15. Arkansas (4-2), 181: (LW: 14), L @ LSU (-1); BW = @Georgia; WL = Alabama

14. Missouri (6-0), 181: (LW: 20), W @ Texas A&M (64); BW = @Texas A&M; WL = N/A

13. Alabama (6-1), 184: (LW: 7), W vs. Ole Miss (17); BW = @Arkansas; Worst Loss = @South Carolina

12. Oregon (6-0), 186: (LW: 6), BYE; BW = Stanford; WL = N/A

11. Michigan St (7-0), 205: (LW: 5), W vs. Illinois (35); BW = @Michigan; WL = N/A

10. Oklahoma St. (6-0), 207: (LW: 19), W @ Texas Tech (96); BW = Texas Tech; WL = N/A

9.  Mississippi St (5-2), 226: (LW: --), W @ Florida (110); BW = @Florida; WL = Auburn

8.   Texas (4-2), 227: (LW: 25), W @ Nebraska (150); BW = @Nebraska; WL = UCLA

7.   Nebraska (5-1), 236: (LW: 13), L vs. Texas (-16); BW = @Washington; WL = Texas

6.   Hawaii (5-2), 248: (LW: 12), W vs. Nevada (37); BW = @Army; WL = USC

5.   Oklahoma (6-0), 252: (LW: 8), W vs. Iowa St (30); BW = Texas (neutral); Worst Loss = N/A

4.   Boise State (6-0), 253: (LW: 3), W @ San Jose St (19); BW = @Virginia Tech; Worst Loss = N/A

3. TCU (7-0), 264: (LW: 4), W vs. BYU (27); BW = Oregon St; Worst Loss = N/A 

2. LSU (7-0), 337: (LW: 1), W vs. McNeese St (0); BW = @Florida; Worst Loss = N/A

1. Auburn (7-0), 365: (LW: 2), W vs. Arkansas (34); BW = @Kentucky; WL = N/A

My college football playoff preference:

The detractors of a playoff indicate that the reasons they don’t like a playoff is that there would be too many games included in the season, and it would be hard to transport as many people as would be needed to each and every neutral site game.  So to solve this, the playoff needs to let a minimum number of teams in as possible, and only have a few of the games be at a neutral site game. My thoughts are: Make it like the NIT tournament, each of the higher seeded teams get home games until the final four.  Also, in order to give everyone a chance, have only conference champions invited.  That gives us 11 teams, and in order to make it an even number, I’m okay with one “wild card”.  So given that, let’s take the Current Standings and choose our 12 schools.

ACC—Florida St

Big XII—Oklahoma

Big East—West Virginia

Big Ten—Michigan St

C-USA—East Carolina

MAC—Northern Illinois

MWC—TCU

Pac-10—Oregon

SEC—Auburn

Sun Belt—Troy

WAC—Hawaii

Wild Card—Boise St

Taking these 12 schools, I’d then seed them by conference strength.

1. Auburn
2. Oklahoma
3. Michigan St
4. Oregon
5. Florida St
6. TCU
7. Hawaii
8. East Carolina
9. West Virginia
10. Troy
11. Northern Illinois
12. Boise St

In this scenario, the first round of games would be Boise St @ Florida St, Northern Illinois @ TCU, Troy @ Hawaii, and West Virginia @ East Carolina.  I think the only road teams that win in these 4 would be Boise St and West Virginia.  Similar to the NFL, I’d then make the lowest seeded team that survives play the highest seeded team on a bye.  That would result in:  Boise St @ Auburn, West Virginia @ Oklahoma, TCU @ Michigan St, and Hawaii @ Oregon. 

That would leave us with a Final Four Saturday-Sunday Contests in a Neutral Site to be:  TCU-Auburn, and Oklahoma-Oregon, with a Final of Auburn-Oklahoma.

Playoff Dreams are fun, too bad you have to wake up.

Edit (10-18-10, 8PM CDT):  TCU originally had 240 pts, but it should have been 264.  This edit reflects that change.