Oregon on a Bye, But Ducks Could Still See Movement in Polls

So far, this season has gone pretty much according to plan. Very few, if any, teams can feel better about their performance thus far than the Oregon Ducks.

They have dominated the opposition to the tune of 54 points per game while only giving up a pedestrian 16 per game. Their running game is off to a great start, essentially acting as the engine that makes this offense run (pun intended). They are averaging about 318 yards per game, good for fourth in the nation.

As a result of their dominance on the field and a schedule that is easily more difficult than their peers in the top five, the Ducks have catapulted all the way to No. 2 in the polls.

While I have discussed how skittish Oregon fans (especially those in Portland) can become when their team is the favorite, they will need to get used to being the frontrunner.

And despite having a bye this week, they could find themselves No. 1 after this weekend.

A Case for No. 1

This week, the Ducks get a much needed break. Quarterback Darron Thomas is dinged up and needs time to rest. LaMichael James has been cruising, but he could easily use a rest given his hefty workload over the past three weeks (28 carries per game).

Furthermore, heading towards a tough stretch with games at Cal and USC and a sneaky UCLA on deck heading to Autzen, they will need some time to allow their somewhat porous defense to adjust their game to the meat of the Pac-10.

After playing against the first of four prototypical elite quarterbacks, the Ducks will need to get their cornerbacks acclimated to pocket passers, and their defensive line and linebackers ready to put ratchet up the pressure.

What is playing in their favor for a bid at the top of the polls is the schedule of their rivals in the top five.

Top ranked Ohio State is heading to Camp Randall to face a very strong Wisconsin Badgers team. This will be the Buckeyes first big test of the season, and there is a strong possibility that they will be upended.

Take a look at who Ohio State has played thus far. Its only tough game on paper was against Miami, and despite what was thought to be a good Hurricanes squad, they just got throttled against Florida State.

They have only played one road game, and they were almost upset in that game by an un-ranked Illinois team that has a lot of holes.

The other games on their schedule? Home games against Marshall, Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Indiana. Not exactly BCS material.

If the Buckeyes are taken down by Wisconsin, they likely will tumble further than Alabama did a week ago, meaning they could find themselves down around Nos. 8 or 9 in the polls.

The Ducks' primary competition for the top spot if Ohio State is toppled will be Boise State, Nebraska and TCU.

Given that Boise State has been a hot button topic this season, some voters may be tempted to reward the upstart team from the potato state. However, given that they have already played the meat of their schedule and they likely will win out, this would present a murky problem for the pollsters down the road.

Imagine if Ohio State loses and the rest of the top five wins out against the rest of their schedules. Could you honestly argue that they are more deserving than the rest given the parity in Boise State's schedule? Could you vote to jump over Boise State after they beat Louisiana Tech by 70 points?

I think that the voters see this problem and will keep Boise State at No. 2 even though they are being forecast as the BCS No. 1 when the computer rankings come out on Sunday.

Like Boise State, TCU has a similar problem, because the Horned Frogs have a very easy schedule. TCU will only play two tough games heading forward, home against Air Force and at Utah on November 6. If they have a shot at the top spot, it won't be until after that game.

Which leaves Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are heading into their toughest stretch of the season, starting with a home game this week against Texas. The Longhorns are obviously having a disappointing season thus far, and they will no doubt be looking to send Nebraska off to the Big Ten with a loss.

Nebraska would have to absolutely destroy Texas and hope for the voters to penalize Oregon for having a bye in order to springboard from No. 5 to the top spot. A more likely scenario would involve Nebraska eeking out a win this week and then moving up a spot past TCU.

The only other team with a chance to move up to No. 1 in the event of an Ohio State loss would be Oklahoma, but it would take a lot more than a big win over Iowa State to get the voters' attention.

However, look out for Auburn this week. If Cameron Newton and the prolific Auburn offense is able to jump all over Arkansas, they could see their stock rise.

Strength of Schedule

Of the teams mentioned, only Auburn has a schedule that belongs in the same sentence as the Ducks.

Boise State's toughest game of the season, Oregon State, is probably only about the fifth or sixth toughest game for Oregon.

TCU will only play two ranked opponents this season, and Air Force is completely one-dimensional and not equipped to play from behind.

Nebraska will have their hands full for the next three weeks against the likes of Texas, Oklahoma State and Missouri, but they will only play two ranked opponents before the Big 12 title game.

This brings us back to Auburn. The Tigers have a brutal schedule coming up. Including this week's game against Arkansas, they will play No. 9 LSU next week and will close out their season at Alabama, who will be playing for the top spot themselves.

Thrown into this mix are games at Ole Miss and against Georgia, which are not exactly gimmes.

If you think that Auburn will win out, you are definitely in the minority. Plus, they will have to still play a conference title game, which will probably be a rematch with South Carolina.

Bottom Line

Oregon finds themselves somewhere it has truly never been before, in the driver's seat. The Ducks have a handful of tough games, but they easily have the talent to win the rest of their games.

This team is built to win right now, and that is exactly what they have shown thus far. The only challenge is to remain competitive, mentally strong and healthy. Given Chip Kelly's style, I don't see the first two issues being a problem, and given the depth of talent on this team, the last thing should not be a problem either.

Oregon should eventually become No. 1, and that more than likely could come this weekend.