College Football Week 7: Predictions Against the Spread
Another sub-.500 week doesn’t make believers out of anyone.
However, this weekend brings a new set of possible winners and hopefully my list includes enough to keep that overall record above water.
This weekend showcases three games between Top 25 teams, the biggest being between new No. 1 Ohio State and No. 18 Wisconsin.
An upset is bound to happen, but who will it be?
Last Week's Record: 8-12
Overall Record: 57-55-4
No. 1 Ohio State (-4) @ No. 18 Wisconsin
1 of 20
Ohio State ranks No. 1 for the first time since 2007. Their initial test as the Rankings King comes against the volatile Wisconsin Badgers.
The Buckeyes have breezed through Wisconsin recently, winning the past three games and posting an 89-49 scoring margin.
Ohio State is also 5-1 ATS in 2010, while Wisconsin is 0-5. Do the Math.
Pick: Ohio State -4
No. 3 Boise State (-39.5) @ San Jose State
2 of 20
Boise State is a perfect 9-0 against San Jose State and this unblemished record should not be in jeopardy.
In these nine games, the Broncos were 30-plus point favorites twice, but failed to cover both times.
Don’t let this stat fool you, though. The Broncos should continue to thrash and will definitely pour on the points against the Spartans.
Pick: Boise State -39.5
No. 4 TCU (-29) vs. BYU
3 of 20
BYU’s defense contained a Top 20 quarterback and a Top 30 running game last week and will looked to continue the trend this weekend.
The Cougars are better than their record suggests and could take advantage of Andy Dalton’s roller coaster year.
Don’t count BYU completely out of this one.
Pick: BYU +29
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No. 5 Nebraska (-9.5) vs. Texas
4 of 20
For the first time since 1999, the Cornhuskers enter this matchup as the favorites.
Although Texas’ stout defense (12th in total defense with 275.0 y/g and 2nd in TFLs with 9.20 tfl/g) will give the Cornhuskers’ offenses fits, Taylor Martinez should finagle a few points before the day is through.
Texas does own a six-game winning streak against Nebraska, but this will undoubtedly change.
Pick: Nebraska -9.5
No. 6 Oklahoma (-24) vs. Iowa State
5 of 20
Oklahoma has demolished Iowa State over the past five games, averaging 36.8 PF and 5.4 PA.
The only saving grace for Iowa State supporters is that they found a way to cover the spread last season.
Don’t get too excited, because that was probably a fluke.
Sooners boom in this one.
Pick: Oklahoma -24
No. 7 Auburn (-3.5) vs. No. 12 Arkansas
6 of 20
Cameron Newton and Auburn’s offense are on a rampage and surprisingly ranks above Arkansas in Total Offense (483.0 y/g) and Scoring (36.7 pts/g).
Auburn’s secondary is a little suspect, though, and chances are that Ryan Mallet has an amazing day.
Both sides will put up points, but a late Mallet drive will break Auburn’s hearts.
Pick: Arkansas +3.5
No. 8 Alabama (-20.5) vs. Mississippi
7 of 20
Despite Alabama’s six-game winning streak, Ole Miss has somehow covered the past four spreads in this lopsided series.
Don’t worry about that uneasy stat, though.
Alabama will be out to prove their worth and I expect nothing short of Saban shellacking in this game.
Pick: Alabama -20.5
No. 10 South Carolina (-5.5) @ Kentucky
8 of 20
South Carolina has lost nine of their last 10 road games and after seeing Kentucky nearly knock off Auburn, anything could happen.
If the Gamecocks come out nursing an excitement hangover, South Carolina could find the sharp end of the upset sword this weekend.
Pick: Kentucky +5.5
No. 11 Utah (-20.5) @ Wyoming
9 of 20
Since 2007, Utah has posted a 4-0 record as away favorites of 15 points or more.
If that’s not enough for you, Wyoming was absolutely molested by TCU last weekend, 45-0, and Utah’s third ranked scoring offense (49.0 pts/g) is completely capable of duplicating this lashing.
Pick: Utah -20.5
No. 13 Michigan State (-7) Vs. Illinois
10 of 20
Michigan State 14th ranked offense (473.2 y/g) goes head-to-head against Illinois’s 21st ranked defense (17.0 pts/g).
However, Illinois has been unimpressive on offense and might have troubles keeping up. The Spartans offense should relish in the home field advantage and win this game by a couple touchdowns.
Pick: Michigan State -7
No. 15 Iowa (-3) @ Michigan
11 of 20
Denard Robinson and Michigan seemed to struggle last weekend against a Michigan State’s defense and Iowa’s No. 1 ranked defense (10.2pts/g) has the potential to turn this into a reoccurring nightmare.
The Hawkeyes also has an offense that can rattle off points in a hurry (33.6 pts/g). Ricky Stanzi will undoubtedly take advantage of Michigan’s appalling secondary which ranks 119th (304.3 y/g).
Pick: Iowa -3
No. 16 Florida State (-21.5) Vs. Boston College
12 of 20
Although a three touchdown spread seems lofty, the Eagles’ repugnant offense (18.0 pts/g) will have problems smelling that luscious end zone grass against the Seminoles’ 16th ranked defense (15.7 pts/g).
Florida State is also 4-0 ATS at home this season, which makes them even more enticing.
Christian Ponder is gelling and should have a field day against the Eagles.
Pick: Florida State -21.5
No. 17 Arizona (-23.5) @ Washington State
13 of 20
Since 2001, Arizona is 6-2 ATS against Washington State.
The last two season, the Wildcats handed out vigorous beat downs to the Cougars, winning by 31 and 41 points respectively in those games.
Arizona’s offense is absolutely explosive and should have no problems running away with this game.
Pick: Arizona -23.5
No. 19 Nevada (-7) @ Hawaii
14 of 20
Nevada (43.0 pts/g) and Hawaii (39.3 pts/g) are no strangers when it comes to the end zone, and this game should keep the scoreboard operator busy.
Nevada has only won in Hawaii twice and both of those games were pre-1950.
Hawaii definitely has the firepower to stay in this game late and maybe even pull out a win.
Pick: Hawaii +7
No. 20 Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (-3.5)
15 of 20
Oklahoma State has covered four of the past five spreads against Texas Tech and the Cowboys’ No.2 Scoring Offense (52.6 pts/g) definitely has enough weapons to emerge from this game as the victory.
However, Texas Tech’s offense has also been lethal this season (36.8 pts/g).
Both defenses are horrendous, though, and this game will come down to whoever has the ball last.
Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5
No. 21 Missouri @ Texas A&M (-3.5)
16 of 20
Missouri is 1-4 on Kyle Field and bookmakers believe that Texas A&M can take advantage of the home field once again.
While both the Tigers and the Aggies have stellar offenses, Missouri’s defense does have a slight edge.
Missouri should eventually halt the Aggies from scoring and take control of this game late.
Pick: Missouri +3.5
No. 22 Florida (-7) Vs. Mississippi State
17 of 20
Florida rides a three-game ATS losing streak against Mississippi State and they could have their hands full again this weekend.
The Bulldogs are currently producing at a higher rate on offense, which will be a problem if Florida’s defense can’t pull it together.
The Gators should win, but this one will be close.
Pick: Mississippi State +7
No. 23 Air Force (-1) @ San Diego State
18 of 20
Air Force owns a three-game winning streak against San Diego State, winning each of those games by at least 12 points.
Ryan Lindley and the Aztecs’ offense will put up some numbers, but it won’t be easy against the Falcons’ solid defense.
Air Force’s time consuming running game should eventually put this game away.
Pick: Air Force -1
No. 24 Oregon State @ Washington (PK)
19 of 20
Although Oregon State will be without wide receiver James Rodgers, his brother Jacquizz has the ability to keep them relevant in this Pac-10 duel.
The Beavers have won four straight games in Seattle, but Jake Locker should torch the Beavers’ feeble passing D and upset another Top 25 team in the process.
Pick: Washington PK
No. 25 West Virginia (-10.5) Vs. South Florida
20 of 20
Although the Bulls have covered four straight spreads in this matchup, a wet night under the big lights should hinder South Florida’s already lethargic offense.
The Bulls secondary will definitely test West Virginia’s extremely accurate Geno Smith (12 TD, 2 INT) and with the help of the rain, could keep this game close.
Pick: South Florida +10.5
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
