Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines Has BCS Implications, So Who Has the Edge?
Who?
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines
When?
Saturday, October 16th, 2010 at 3:30 pm on ABC/ESPN
The Line?
Iowa by 4.5
Last Week
Michigan disappointed as Michigan State took advantage of several miscues en route to a 34-17 thumping of the Wolverines in Ann Arbor
Iowa had a bye
What's at stake?
Michigan hopes to refocus after getting (almost) blown out at home by the Michigan State Spartans. It was just last year that a close loss to Michigan, and then Iowa, spelled the end for the Wolverines squad.
Iowa looks to prove they're for real as the Hawkeyes have yet to post a win over a team that has, well, any credibility. Iowa's sole loss comes from their failed comeback attempt at Arizona. Win, and Iowa's defense (and team) looks legit. Lose, and people will question if the Hawkeyes are worthy of a top spot in the Big 10.
So who's got the edge?
Michigan's Rushing Offense Vs. Iowa's Rushing Defense
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Michigan comes in with the nation's 6th best rushing attack (297.6 yards/game) thanks in large part to sophomore phenom Denard Robinson.
Don't be fooled though, Michigan has very talented backs in junior Mike Shaw and Vincent Smith. Last week, Michigan's backs combined for only 13 carries, but managed to average 5.8 yards a carry against the best defense Michigan has faced so far. Denard Robinson was held to a season-low 86 yards on 21 attempts and will be looking for a bit of redemption.
But for as talented as Michigan is at running, Iowa is equally (or moreso) talented at defending the run. Iowa has yet to allow a rushing TD this season, is 1st for points allowed (10.2), and 2nd in the nation in rushing defense, allowing a stingy 63.2 yards per game on the ground.
Admittedly, this does come against fairly inferior opponents for the Hawkeyes (Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, Ball State, and Penn State). Yet even in the Hawkeyes' only loss, they still allowed just 63 yards on the ground.
Led by DE Adrian Clayborn, the Hawkeyes have limited their last two opponents to a combined 1 field goal (Penn State got 3 points in about 5 trips to the red zone).
In fact, the Hawkeyes haven't allowed a rushing TD in some 33 quarters (~8-9 games). Iowa was in a similar boat last year when the two teams met, but Michigan back Brandon Minor was able to run one in and end that streak. Denard punched one in the endzone later as well. In fact, Iowa was only allowing about 10 points a game last year when Michigan came to town, and promptly surrendered 28.
This is, without a doubt, the most talented rush attack Iowa has faced this season -- but it would seem that they're up for the challenge.
Edge: IOWA
Michigan's Pass Offense Vs. Iowa's Pass Defense
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Denard Robinson had quietly slipped into the nation's 4th most efficient passer last week, but has since relinquished that spot behind a dismal 3 INT (2 while in the red zone) performance. Still, when the Hawkeyes faced Michigan last year, they pretty much knew two things:
1) Tate would pass.
2) Denard would run.
And run he did. After Tate's poorest statistical performance of the season, Rodriguez pulled Forcier out and allowed Denard in. Denard drove down the field for 59 yards and a TD, all on his legs.
But this year, it's a bit different. If Iowa stacks the box to contain the run, they open Michigan's receivers, and while Denard is young and lacks an elite touch to his passing, he can still get the ball to receivers who are talented enough to adjust. If they drop back to defend the pass, Denard will tuck it and run.
It's going to be interesting to see how Denard responds after his 3 INT performance against Michigan State. He'll be facing the weakest (and I use the term 'weakest' loosely) part of the Hawkeye defense in a secondary that surrendered over 300 yards to Arizona. Iowa comes in to the matchup 62nd in the nation in passing yards allowed, allowing 229 yards per game.
Iowa may force Denard to beat them with his arm, and he just might be able to do it
Edge: MICHIGAN
Iowa's Rush Attack Vs. Michigan's Rush Defense
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Despite what it looked like against Michigan State, Michigan did a fairly decent job of stopping the run -- the exception was 2 plays that went for big gains (one of around 60 yards and another of around 40). The mistakes that led to these plays are fixable, so hopefully Michigan doesn't allow easy yards to Iowa like they did to Michigan State.
Michigan is allowing 159 yards/game on the ground. This is respectable, and especially so when you factor in Michigan State's talented backs (Larry Caper, Le'veon Bell, and Edwin Baker).
That being said, Iowa's historically a grinding team -- wearing the defense out by putting together long drives of primarily running plays. The philosophy this year hasn't been much different, but the Hawkeyes are finding it a bit harder to get things done offensively. They lost star RB Jewel Hampton in late September to a season-ending knee injury, but have a very capable back in Adam Robinson.
Michigan's defensive line and linebackers have an every so slight advantage here, if they can avoid giving up the big play to Iowa's very young offensive line.
Edge: MICHIGAN
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Iowa's Pass Attack Vs. Michigan's Pass Defense
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To be honest, there's really not much to say here. Things were going alright for the Michigan secondary against Michigan State before Rogers went out with cramps and freshman Cullen Christian came in, promptly getting torched for a 41 yard pass. Michigan's secondary is the epitome of youth, putting 4-5 true freshman on the field at DB at a time. Anyone who expects success under these conditions should be put in a straight jacket.
At least Stanzi throws a lot of INTS? Am I right?
No. Not at all. This was perhaps Iowa's biggest problem last season (he threw 15 last year). This year, he's completing 67% of his passes and has 10 TDs to 2 INTs. Very, very good numbers, and Iowa is winning because of Stanzi this year, and not in spite of him like last year.
If Michigan is going to have any prayer at stopping the pass, it's going to have to come from a few well-placed blitzes. Rushing 3 men (or D-line) every play for the whole game gets to be, well, boring to watch and quite predictable. If the defense can get pressure on Stanzi, it would be a big help for the young Wolverines secondary.
That being said, it really hasn't happened this year, and Ricky Stanzi will pick on Michigan's freshmen all game long.
Edge: IOWA
Special Teams
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Michigan has some of the worst special teams play in the Big Ten, if not the nation. The only other team that may come close to as many miscues as the Wolverines have had, however, is the Iowa Hawkeyes. In fact, one could blame Iowa's loss to Arizona solely on special teams -- getting 2 punts blocked and letting the Wildcats score a TD on a kick return. Altogether, special teams cost Iowa 15 points.
Okay, so their debacles haven't been as extreme lately, but Iowa doesn't have elite special teams. Speaking of not having elite special teams, Michigan is right next to Iowa in that respect. The lone brightspot is Will Hagerup's improvement at punting. He's only averaging around 42 yards per punt, but that's mostly because of errant punts in the first part of the season. Lately, he's been punting around 45-53 yards, which is just what Michigan's struggling defense ordered. Pinning the opponent as far back as possible will prove invaluable to the Wolverines.
AND.. Did you see that Michigan made a field goal against the Spartans? Nevermind the horribly botched attempt right before halftime, but WE MADE A FIELD GOAL *jumping up and down*
That being said, Michigan has many concerns still. The kick return team isn't nearly as good as it was last year, struggling to make it to the 20 or 25 yard line. Last year, Stonum led many kicks to between the 30 and 40 yard line. Michigan's inability to field punts has been an issue as well, as I always think "just hold onto the ball, just hold onto the ball" whenever the opponent lines up to punt. Usually we signal for a fair catch though, because more than likely the ball gets fumbled and the opponent recovers. That's probably the worst.
So, while there's been slight improvement, I'm still not ready to ever give the Wolverines an edge in this category.
Edge: IOWA
The X-Factor
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Michigan's resilience will be the x factor or "wild card" of the game. Last year, Michigan's implosion occurred following a loss to Michigan State and then Iowa. The voices of dissent will reach a fever pitch not heard since the NCAA announced that Michigan broke rules if Iowa wins this game.
Denard Robinson delivered a passionate speech following the team's loss to Michigan State, vowing that this would "never, ever happen again."
I can't imagine he meant the Wolverines will never lose again, so we'll say he meant that individually and as a team that Michigan won't put on such a poor performance. That being said, if the Wolverines are going to be beat by Iowa, they're going down with a fight.
If Michigan proves to be a resilient team, then they might just be able to pull off the victory, but taking down one of the nation's top defenses is tough -- it's even tougher to win when you're sporting one of the nation's worst defenses.
If the speech was Tebow-esque in passion, perhaps we will see Michigan play with the right amount of emotion, urgency, and execution to win, and if not win, at least stay completely in the game.
The Prediction
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If Michigan has the ball last, look out Iowa -- but I suspect they will be methodical enough with the clock to not allow that to happen.
Despite putting up a valiant offensive effort, Iowa's tough defense ultimately gets the upper hand and Iowa prevails.
Michigan: 28, IOWA: 34
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