Boise State vs. Nevada: What the Wolf Pack Must Do To Beat the Broncos

There is a confrontation coming on November 26 that will pit two very good teams against each other. 

It looks increasingly likely that an undefeated Boise State, ranked in the top three in the nation, will face an undefeated Nevada ranked in the top 20. At stake will be the WAC title and Boise’s long sought after BCS Championship opportunity. To say there is a lot riding on this game would be an epic understatement.

Boise State has been making the argument that they deserve a title shot, since they defeated Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl in 2007. With back-to-back undefeated seasons and the nation’s longest winning streak, the Broncos have managed to convince doubting BCS elite that they do indeed deserve a crack at the title. Standing in their way is the Nevada Wolf Pack, a team that has not been ranked in 62 years and has never been ranked as high as they are right now.

If BSU wins convincingly and remains one of two undefeated teams, it will be very difficult for the BCS to deny them. If on the other hand the Broncos lose on November 26, their quest dies. If Nevada wins their remaining games, this battle of unbeatens would be one of the most anticipated and watched games of the year. Even folks who have not previously paid much attention to the WAC will be watching this game on Thanksgiving weekend.

There is some history here for the WAC novice. These teams have faced each other for decades and generally played evenly. But in recent years, the games have been very interesting. During that time, BSU has been essentially unbeatable. BSU has embarrassed a number of premiere programs including Oregon—twice.

Nevada, led by their astonishing QB, Colin Kaepernick, has given the Broncos all they can handle. In fact, no one else has scored as many points against BSU as Nevada has over the past three years—135 to be exact.  Their 2007 game was a jaw dropper. A skinny freshman then, Kaepernick made his debut on the blue in Boise and almost pulled off a miracle. Outscoring BSU in the second half, Nevada tied the game with two minutes left and went on to four overtimes before it was over, losing by only two points, 69-67 in what many feel was one of the most exciting games in college football history. 

In 2008 in Reno, the Wolf Pack had a dismal first half but once again, outscored BSU mightily in the second half, 35-17 only to fall short, 42-35 in a furious comeback. A dropped pass in the end zone was all that prevented Nevada from sending that game into overtime.

In 2009, the rivalry returned to Boise in some of the most miserable conditions to play football imaginable.  Nevada once again dug itself into a very deep hole early in the game. Three blown defensive plays put the Wolf Pack down 20 - 0 in the first quarter. Once again, Kaepernick led a furious comeback. Nevada outscored BSU 33-24 from the second quarter on and went on to lose 44-33.

In three games, Nevada had scored 135 points against the mighty Broncos and lost all three games by a narrow combined margin of only 20 points.  Obviously, Nevada has an offense that is capable of scoring a ton of points on BSU. What was missing was any resemblance of a defense. Well, that has changed now. The new defensive coordinator, Andy Buh, has remade the defense and that is a major reason why Nevada is 6-0 and ranked in the top 20. The stage is now set. A much improved Nevada Wolf Pack with new found defensive prowess may be the toughest challenge BSU has faced in a long time.

What must Nevada do to win this game? Let’s begin with what BSU has done to beat them. The Bronco’s strategy was simple, stop Kaepernick and you stop Nevada. They put one linebacker on him at all times. Every move he makes is greeted by a big blue defender and quickly followed by more. Then, they attack Nevada’s historically weak secondary with precision bombs from their deadly accurate QB, Kellen Moore, to sure handed receivers Titus Young and Austin Pettis. They capitalize on any mistakes and force turnovers.

So what does the Wolf Pack need to do to win? First of all, don’t be so predictable.  Running Kaepernick on the option 30 times is what BSU expects. They don’t think he can throw. They don’t respect his arm and think he is all rush, rush, rush. So, fool them. Fake the keeper and throw the ball more. Once they get burned a few times it will open up some rushing opportunities for Kaepernick later in the game.

The Broncos also expect Coach Ault will run Vai Taua up the middle time after time. Don’t! Mix it up. Catch them off guard. The Wolf Pack will need to have different plays that BSU hasn’t seen before.  The Broncos are a spreadsheet driven team. They know what plays every opponent runs. To beat them, you have to defeat Microsoft Excel and confound them with plays they haven’t seen before. That’s how Nevada almost pulled off the victory in 2007. They had never seen Kaepernick before and were caught off guard by his running. They need that element of surprise again.

Boise State is a master of getting up for a game and getting off to a fast start. Nevada can’t afford to get behind early. They have to be fired up and ready to play from the opening kickoff.  They must keep it close. They have historically had a lot of success against BSU in the second half. If they can stay within striking distance and do whatever they have done in the second half over the past three years to consistently outscore BSU, they may have a chance.

On defense, they have to be much better than in past years. BSU will attack the line with their powerful running back Doug Martin. Nevada has to limit him to as few yards as possible. The Broncos will also challenge the Wolf Pack secondary. It is essential that they stay with the receivers. If they allow Young and Pettis to get open, rest assured, Moore will find them.  They have to prevent the big play.

Moore is not used to getting pressure. Nevada needs to blitz early and often. They must force him out of the pocket and make him throw on the run if they have any hope of picking him off which they did twice in '08. He gets rid of the ball very fast, so the speed of defensive end Dontay Moch will be needed. Nevada’s defense must play their best game of the season. Boise will be caught off guard if they do because the Broncos have come to expect Nevada to be porous on defense. The Wolf Pack must display the same smothering defense they had against Cal earlier this season.

Ball control is crucial. BSU attacks the ball and forces fumbles. Kaepernick has a bad habit of not protecting the ball when he runs. Trust me, BSU knows that and will go after his right arm.

Nevada must control the clock and keep BSU’s offense off the field. They cannot afford sloppy play, stupid mistakes, penalties and turnovers. BSU knows how to capitalize on mistakes. To beat them, you have to play smart.  BSU can be sloppy at times. Nevada needs to steal the momentum and force BSU into unforced errors.

BSU is also an extremely aggressive and physical team. They have taken “smash mouth” to new level. Nevada knows them well and must match the Broncos on the physicality scale.

BSU is also notorious for trick plays. Flea flickers, double reverses, fake field goals, the statue of liberty, you name it, they will do it. Typically BSU will run a trick play when they are up against it. Just ask Oklahoma about that. At other times, they will throw one in when they have a lead to demoralize the opponent and beak their spirit. In either case, Nevada must be ready for BSU’s favorite trickery.

Another thing to consider, Nevada plays Boise on only 6 days rest. They have New Mexico State in Reno on Saturday November 20 and the Broncos only 6 days later. It is going to be important for Coach Ault to get the starters out as soon as the game with New Mexico State is locked down. The Wolf Pack needs rested and ready starters. 

Finally, the 12th man matters. BSU will bring 4,000 or more rabid fans in orange and blue. Wolf Pack fans have to be just as up for this game as the players.  This game was sold out long ago. There will be five times as many Nevada fans there. They need to be heard.

The hard truth is Boise State is a really good team.  Having watched them for three years, I personally am convinced that they are not over-rated. I did not always think that. But the Broncos have made a believer of me. But Nevada can beat them. They have come very close to doing so the past three years. A single play here or there would have made the difference.  If Nevada plays their best, avoids mistakes and capitalizes on the element of surprise, they can do it.

Nevada can probably score 30 – 35 points on BSU. If they can hold the Broncos to 30 or less, the Nevada Wolf Pack can win.

Here’s my prediction, 35 – 28 Nevada.