Nebraska Football: A Texas-Sized Test on the Horizon

Don't kid yourself Nebraska fans.  The Texas Longhorns are dangerous.

I'll go so far as to say they are even more dangerous now than if they were undefeated and ranked fourth, as many thought they would be.

After a heartbreaking loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in the annual Red River Rivalry, following that unspeakable upset by the mediocre UCLA Bruins, the Texas Longhorns are suddenly gasping for air.

For the first time in an NCAA record 162 consecutive weeks, Texas is unranked, and the Longhorns are suddenly playing for their season.

Enter the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

On October 16th, Texas has an opportunity to salvage its season against a team that it has historically owned.  The Longhorns are 9-4 against the Huskers, including 7-1 in the Mack Brown era.  The 'Horns have won five games in a row against Nebraska since dropping the Big 12 Championship to the Huskers in 1999, a game in which the Huskers got revenge against a regular season loss to Texas just weeks before.

That's correct.  Mack Brown has beaten Nebraska every single season he has played them.

As much success as Texas has had against Nebraska, however, many of those wins were very close and could have easily gone the other way.  Since Mack Brown's first season as head coach of the Longhorns, six of their seven wins against the Huskers were by four points or less.

Undefeated Nebraska will again try to get revenge against Texas, this time for a heartbreaking, but fair, one-point loss to the Longhorns in the 2009 Big 12 Championship game.  Will they be able to finally turn the corner against the Longhorns?  Even if they are able to, it won't be easy.

The last time Nebraska played an unranked Texas team, the Huskers were ranked seventh and ended up being upset 20-16.  Eerie.

The outcome could be very similar this year.

Nebraska's offense has exploded with the sensational Taylor Martinez at quarterback, but Texas has by far the best defense Nebraska will have faced all year, and has a lot more speed and athleticism than Kansas State.  The Longhorn defense will be the most complex puzzle Martinez will have to solve yet.  Led by Sam Acho, Keeston Randall, Eddie Jones, and Keenan Robinson, the Longhorns have a nasty run defense that will have to be loosened up with some big pass completions. 

If only that were easy. 

The defense's strength is the secondary, led by Curtis Brown, Chykie Brown, Aaron Williams, and Blake Gideon.  Nebraska will have to figure out how to complete key passes against one of the best secondaries in the nation, otherwise the run offense will go stale and we may see the game snowball on the young Martinez.

The biggest danger for the Nebraska offense is turnovers.  They have been very bad about fumbling this year, and if they cannot hold onto the ball, Texas' points could come from the defense.  An aggressive Texas secondary, comparable to Nebraska's, could also give Martinez fits.

Texas' offense is another story.

The running game, which was heavily emphasized in the offseason after the departure of do-it-all quarterback Colt McCoy, has been very disappointing for the Longhorns.  After watching the Blackshirts shut down the talented Daniel Thomas, it's hard to see the Longhorns running the ball successfully against them. 

Speedster D.J. Monroe, who is averaging almost 12 yards per carry and had a 60-yard touchdown against Oklahoma, might cause some problems for the Huskers, but I see the speed of the Husker defense, with Lavonte David, Eric Martin, Dejon Gomes, and Eric Hagg, offsetting Texas' most explosive weapon. 

The Longhorns' passing offense, led by sophomore quarterback Garrett Gilbert, has been somewhat effective.  Gilbert has completed 63.3 percent of his passes for over 1,100 yards, and has spread the ball around well, with five players already over 14 catches.  Unfortunately for Texas, they will be facing arguably the best secondary in the nation. 

Nebraska's secondary has been spectacular this season, picking off 11 passes in the first five games, including a combined seven against two top NFL prospects, Jake Locker and Nathan Enderle. 

Dating back to Nebraska's five interception performance against OU quarterback Landry Jones in 2009, the secondary has developed a reputation for making quarterbacks look silly.  The Huskers held Locker to four-of-20 passing, and they picked off Enderle five times, returning two, back-to-back, for touchdowns. 

Garrett Gilbert, who has thrown five interceptions to four touchdowns this year, might have a tough day against the opportunistic Huskers.

As I said earlier, I think Nebraska is in more danger against Texas than if Texas had been undefeated up to this point, because now the underrated Longhorns have little to lose and a lot to gain.  Nebraska, on the other hand, has a whole lot to lose.  Top-ranked Alabama's loss to South Carolina opened a door for Nebraska to the National Championship. 

If the Huskers can go undefeated and beat OU in the Big 12 Championship game, the Huskers would likely be issued into the BCS Championship against, presumably, Ohio State or Oregon.  (Sorry Boise State fans, but an undefeated Nebraska against Big 12 competition would get the nod over an undefeated Boise against WAC competition if it comes down to that.)

But to do that, the Huskers will have to get by their toughest test to date.  The Longhorns will come out with their hair on fire, and Nebraska better be ready.

After last season's Thursday-night Big 12 opening win, the Huskers were in a sickeningly similar situation.  The Huskers had defeated Missouri on the road with a furious fourth-quarter comeback and were receiving a lot of hype as a result.  The next game was a home game against unranked Texas Tech, a game many pegged as a trap game.

The Huskers played their worst game of the year and lost to the Red Raiders 31-10.

The game against the Longhorns is a trap game if I've ever seen one.  Nebraska will have to play their best football to beat Texas.  They will have to play with a consistency that we have not yet seen in the Bo Pelini era.  I think, because of the match up problems the Blackshirts will pose to the Texas offense, Nebraska wins an emotional game 20-10 that will be closer than that score indicates.  But I also thought Nebraska would beat the Red Raiders about this time last season.

Nebraska's last Big 12 season hinges on the Texas-sized test looming on October 16th.

No pressure, Huskers, just beat Texas.

Easy, right?

Food For Thought

• Oklahoma State found an offensive rhythm in the second half against Louisiana Lafayette and took down the Ragin' Cajuns 54-28 after trailing 21-17 at the half.  The Cowboys have an explosive offense, but their defense needs some work.  They seem to show up in big games, so they will also pose a stiff test for Nebraska.
• Baylor fell just short against Texas Tech, 45-38.  I see the Bears, behind star quarterback Robert Griffin, making a bowl game this year.
• Georgia ended a four game skid, smoking Tennessee 41-14.  Star Bulldogs receiver A.J. Green is amazing and will be a top 10 NFL draft pick.
• As I suspected, Denard Robinson finally looked human against the first good defense he has faced all year, and Michigan's suspect defense could not keep up with Michigan State as the Spartans ran away with a 34-17 win.  Will Taylor Martinez have a similar fate against Texas?
• And the Tide has finally been rolled!  The South Carolina Gamecocks knocked off top-ranked Alabama 35-21.  People who picked 'Bama to win a second consecutive championship don't understand how difficult it is to win that many games in a row.  The last team to do it was Nebraska in 1994 and 1995.
• The Arizona Wildcats' dreams of a Pac-10 title were dashed with a 29-27 loss to the pesky Oregon State Beavers.
• Texas A&M took 11th ranked Arkansas to the wire in a 24-17 loss.  Ryan Mallett is overrated, but A&M will provide another stiff test for the Huskers.
• LSU knocked off the Florida Gators 33-29 in a game of underachievers.  Alabama will still win the SEC.
• The Miami Hurricanes have been exposed.  The Florida State Seminoles walked all over the 'Canes 45-17.  The overrated Jacory Harris hit just 40 percent of his passes and threw a pick.
• Stanford barely survived a near let-down after an emotional loss to Oregon, beating USC 37-35.
• The Washington Huskies played a good Arizona State team to the end, losing 24-14.  ASU is a team that gave Oregon a scare.  Nebraska's win in Seattle is looking better and better.