Sugar Bowl Preview: Hawaii vs. Georgia

This bowl has it all—the BCS Team that feels they deserve to be in the title game and the newcomer from 4,000 miles away that feels a bit disrespected. The pretty boy heisman trophy finalist, Colt Brennan, who by the way is the only finalist in a BCS game, and a new freshman sensation in Knowshon Moreno. The SEC giant looking for their 40th win in four seasons, and the 2nd WAC BCS buster in just their 2nd mainland postseason game in the schools history.

It's David vs. Goliath. The Georgia Bulldogs of the SEC vs. the Hawaii Warriors of the WAC.

The Georgia Bulldogs are 10 point favorites to win the BCS Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day. They have been the hottest team in the country over the last six weeks of the season. If all things were equal and the football gods got their way, Georgia and USC would be in the BCS National Championship game as the two best teams in college football. But the BCS doesn't work that way so they are stuck with OSU and LSU (who both have longer losing streaks than ND). If it wasn't for the fact that it was for the National Championship, the Hawaii-Georgia game would be the most compelling game to watch.

Can Hawaii stop the Georgia's run offense?

Hershall Walker says UGA just needs to run two TE, power I formation and run the football and will be able to run through the UH defense like butter...What is he smoking? I respect him for what he did in Dallas and while at UGA, but has he even seen a UH game?

Anyway, to answer the question, I don't think they will be able to stop the UGA running game. They will probably be slower through the first quarter and a half (like against Washington) trying to adjust to Georgia's speed and power. Will they slow them down in the second half? Yes.

Georgia will definitely try to pound the ball with the run game, keep the UH offense off the field, and control the clock. UGA has a cast of three talented running backs who should all be healthy come game time. However, the most talented of the trio is the sensational Knowshon Moreno, who will be difficult to stop. He has more speed than Ian Johnson or any other back Hawaii has faced all season. The line can be overpowering, and should be able to control the clock for a majority of the game.

However, I don't think they will get too many yards up the middle. Most of it will be to the edges, where a healthy and fast Blaze Soares and Elimimian will have to cut him off. Missed tackles will severely hurt Hawaii’s chances in this game. The UH defense will be excited, but they will have to make sure they wrap up the runners and not just try to go for the “kill shot.” Brown and Moreno are quick, elusive, and can get to the corners quickly, so expect to see Hawaii's defense commit additional defenders to help out. Expect to see a missed tackle or two for big gains by the UGA trio.

Can Georgia capitalize if Hawaii commits eight, or even nine, defenders to stop the run?

QB Matthew Stafford of Georgia was recruited because of his big arm, quick release, and his ability to throw the ball deep.  He ran a pass happy offense at his high school in Texas, and is comfortable with the ball in his hands.  However, with Stafford still growing in the offense, UGA's ability to smash the ball down oppenents throats, a young O-line with a number of freshmen, and OC Bobo's commitment to run the ball, UGA does not throw the ball as often as they possibly could.

As such, it is definitely questionable if he can succeed on a consistent basis throwing the ball. QB Stafford will have to try to capitalize with play action passes deep if Hawaii commits eight men in the box and plays press coverage on the WR. Is he capable of doing it? I am not really sure. He has beaten a handful of teams this year when faced with 8 men in the box, and although he has thrown it better later in the season, I am still not convinced. He is very inconsistent and completes only 55 percent of his passes, and has a two to one TD to INT ratio (low for a QB). He also tends to hold onto the ball waiting for his receivers to break open.

UW had a few opportunities against UH that they couldn’t capitalize on because of QB Locker’s inaccuracy deep, but Stafford is a little more accurate than he was. Locker overthrew two to three potentially big plays in that game. I expect Stafford to maybe make one of those plays, but not consistently enough.

UH CB Newberry and Lewis will have their hands full playing man-on-man quite a bit, but I believe this is a fair toss up against the UGA wideouts. The UGA WR tandem will have their opportunities to shine, but it will be up to Stafford to get them the ball. I think they will get a big play or two, but no, I don't think they will capitalize consistently enough when UH plays the run with additional defenders.

Can Hawaii keep up with the speed of a SEC defense?

I continually hear about how UH has not seen a team like UGA. I hear Hawaii fans talk about UW and BSU, but UGA is definitely a different animal. This year, that statement is true—UH hasn’t faced a team of UGA’s caliber. But the fact remains that UH can play against any team in the country for ONE game.

I’ve read tons of writers and bloggers who said, “If UH played our schedule, they would only finish with a .500 record at best.” I might agree to this sentiment, but it can’t just be taken at face value. This has got to be the stupidest thing I have constantly read over the past month or so. The reason is because “IF” UH played in the SEC, they would have an SEC type budget, with SEC type facilities, and be able to recruit top flight, blue chip, NFL quality players.

As it stands, I think coach Jones and his staff has made the best out of what they can do by taking risks on players with question marks, or second and third tier JUCO and high scool players. However, even with these built in disadvantages, the answer is yes, they can keep up with them. They did it against Alabama in 2006, and against other big schools. They didn't win those games last year, but they can definitely hold their own. It may take a quarter or two to get fully adjusted, but they can keep up with them. They’ve done it against the likes of USC, AL, MSU, Oregon State, and Arizona State. I don’t see this as being an issue like many pundits are making it out to be.

Who wins the time of possession battle?

Georiga will dominate the time of possession, no questions asked.  Does it matter?  No, because Hawaii has a belief that it doesn't matter as long as you score points.  Hawaii has won the time of possession battle just 4 times in their 12 wins this year.  I believe that speaks to itself regarding the battle of the clock.

Can Georgia stop the Hawaii offense?

They say Georgia plays a lot of “great” quarterbacks like Tim Tebow, Andre Woodson, and Erik Ainge...And this is true. Georgia's two biggest wins this year have been against Auburn and Florida.

However, these are both offenses that primarily run the football. The Georgia defense is fast to the line of scrimmage and can get stops behind the line. They will probably end the game with four to six sacks against UH. Georgia faced three pass dominated teams who use a lot of 3 and 4 WR sets in South Carolina, Tennessee, and Troy (from the SunBelt conference). Kentucky is not in this discussion because they primarily run a two wide, one TE, base offense. Here were the results:

S. Carolina—Loss, 16-12
Tennessee—Loss, 35-14
Troy—Win, 44-34

South Carolina and Tennessee were played earlier in the season, when Stafford was just getting comfortable in the offense and RB Moreno was just becoming a household name. However, the Troy game is interesting to take a look at because they pass the ball A LOT. They were in this game for about three quarters until a couple of late mistakes. They are nowhere near Hawaii in passing the ball, but they do it quite a bit and were able to score points on UGA. This was also during Georgia's dominating win streak, and they were giving up points to TROY from the Sunbelt Conference ( albeit they almost won their conference championship). It is still much weaker than the top tier of the WAC.

The Georgia safeties Johnson, Byrd, and Jones are fast and very athletic, but they are much more suitble and built to stop the run or play zone, not to line up and cover slot backs. Georgia is a very physical team—they go about six deep in the secondary—but they will not be able to keep Hawaii from scoring points in bunches. There will be plenty of big plays for Hawaii's slot receivers in this game. I expect to see about 10 catches apiece for the two dread-heads inside.

UGA's defensive front have got to be licking their chops with the opportunity to go at a QB who will be dropping back 60-70 times in this game. Georgia will definitely try to blitz hard to get to Brennen and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. This seems like the best strategy over the past two years against Hawaii. A battle in the trenches which will be interesting—UGA NT Geno Atkins against UH OC Estes.  Although only a sophomore, Atkins was a beast this year and probably the second best defensive interior lineman in the SEC behind Glenn Dorsey of LSU. Estes has anchored the UH line all year after moving inside from his guard position last year. If Atkins can collapse the pocket back into Brennan and force him to scramble, this will help disrupt the timing of this offense. 

Marcus Howard, DE for UGA, will probably see a lot of single blocks so it will be up to him to get to Brennan. Rennie Curran leads a pack of exceptional linebakers who have been the leaders of the defensive unit.  This same group contrained Tebow and co. and held them to the lowest output of the season. Over the last couple of games, UGA DC Martinez turned LB Ellerbe loose as well and will most likely use him on various blitz packages. It will be up to RB Libre, Pilares, or Wright-Jackson to pick them up. In UH’s last game against UW, it took a while for the backs to pick up the outside blitzers, which led to the first fumble of that game. They made the proper adjustments about a quarter in, but the RB and their ability to pick up the free rusher, will be a huge part on the overall success of the Warrior passing game.

I believe the best way for UGA to defend Hawaii is to only rush the four down linemen and play press coverage on the WRs and disrupt the timing of the passing game.  Brennan is so accurate, but the offense is predicated on timing and precision.  This will allow the LBs to drop back and eye Brennan and sniff out all of the quick, short underneath passes which is a staple of the Hawaii ofense. Disrupting the routes of the wideouts, having Brennan hold onto the ball for a second or two longer will benefit UGA greatly, giving their guys a chance to hit and rattle the star QB.

If UGA keeps getting hits on Brennan, bad things are in store for UH—hurried passes, fumbles, interceptions, and tipped balls just to name a few. I think that they will definitely get to Brennan a few times (UGA leads the SEC with 34 sacks), but the times they don't, expect to see a lot of seven to 12 yard completions from Bess and Grice-Mullen.

When Georgia gets to Brennan for sacks, will he hold on to the ball or fumble it?

It will all come down to turnovers.

I see maybe one or two turnovers by the Hawaii offense (one from a sack and fumble, another from an INT from a hurried pass), and Georgia getting short fields for easy scores. However, the large Georgia defensive line will not be able to continually send pressure every down. Georgia will try to substitute players in and out on defense to keep them fresh, so expect to see some hurry up and no huddle offese from the Warriors. UGA's front four is used to plugging up run lanes and waiting for the running backs to get to them. It is very different to continually try to run up field to rush a quarterback EVERY down.

Expect Georgia and UH to exchange scores for about the first 20 minutes or so of the game, but I expect UH to score more points in the second and fourth quarters. It may even come down to who has the ball last.

One additional point in UGA's favor:

Nobody knows how UH will respond on the road. History says not well, and this season all games were close (except for UNLV). Difference is that UH will travel one week before the game unlike the regular season. Hopefully there are no ill effects from jet lag and they are 100 percent ready to go.

You can never tell, and seeing UH stumble out of the box in their biggest game against Washington with three fumbles in nine minutes was probably an aberration, but if it happens against Georgia, the Dawgs will probably run away with it. The UGA decision to go with the Black uniforms may also backfire as Black is also one of UH’s colors too. A stadium filled with about 65 percent black and 35 percent green should be somewhat comforting to UH. I think the Red unis would have been a better, more intimidating option, but that’s just me.

Two additional points that many are overlooking:

1) Teams that whine about the BCS game they are in, usually because they feel they got shafted out of a chance at the championship game, are 0-7 over the past six years. It happened to Michigan against UCS in the Rose Bowl and to UGA two years ago in this same Sugar Bowl against West Virginia.

UGA has been complaining for the past 10 days about how they have been shafted and how they moved down in the polls even though the top two teams fell and they were ranked fourth. Although Richt is saying they will be “jacked” up by game time, word is that the players have been bickering about the choice of LSU over UGA...If they aren’t focused, it could be trouble. 

Coach Richt can defintely motivate his players.  He's done it all year and has taken this Georgia team to new heights by beating rivals Auburn, Florida, and Alabama.  The ALL team celebration, the "surprise" black unis, he has a dozen tactics and is one of the best in college football at motivating his players. 

2) UGA Coaching—HC Mark Richt, DC Martinez, OC Bobo of UGA have a total of zero years coaching in the NFL.

UH Coaching—HC June Jones has 12 years and McMackin has five years in the NFL.

Don't underestimate this point. Although having NFL experiene isn't a prerequisite to success in college football, I think it can be a factor. Why is this important? Giving NFL quality coaches one month to game plan is huge. I am not discounting coach Richt's ability, but I think no one brings this up because UGA is just more physical and fast, plays in the SEC, and Richt has had success over his seven seasons as a head coach, but I think game planning will play a big role.

Just as an example, recently UGA HC Richt said at their Monday press confrence that they have looked at "several" UH games on tape.  Both the end zone and coaches tape, as well as the TV tape. Then I came across a quote from the UH DC McMackin saying that he has charted every single one of UGA's offensive plays that they ran this year. He said that UGA ran a total of 807 offensive plays this year and broke it down into percentage of runs to the left, right, and between tackles to passes on first, second, and third downs. Now that is paying attention to details and analyzing what they are up against. That was the first 2 days after the match up announcement. What will they do with the rest of the month?

How Will the game play out? 

If UGA gets the ball first THEY WILL SCORE on their first drive.  UH has started slowly against better oppenents because a lot of it has to do with not being able to simulate the matchup in practice.  Its one thing to simulate the speed (as UH has some speedy skill players), but another to simulate the power and aggressiveness that UGA will bring. As long as coach Richt does not get cutesy and try to pass that ball on 3 consecutive downs to try to "fool" the defense, they should score.

If UH get the ball first, THEY WILL NOT SCORE on their first drive.  Same things here in regards to the power that UGA will bring, primarily on the defensive front. There will be an adjustment period for UH to handle the pressure.

The big possession will be the second possession that each team has.  If UGA scores again, and UH doesn't I don't see UH making a valiant comback from more than 14 down.  However, if UH holds and is able to score on their next drive, then we will have a game. 

So, to wrap this up, my first BOLD prediction for this game and the results:

Drum roll please...

1) Hawaii will win the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, 42-34

My second and BIGGER BOLD prediction:

2) LSU will beat Ohio St, meaning every other team in the country will have at least two losses. Hawaii will be crowned the AP writers co-National Champs. They are not part of the BCS equation and they will probably do this for two reasons. One, because the biggest knock on UH was the lack of competition, but if they beat arguable the hottest team in football they will silence those critics (they will need to jump the likes of USC, WV, OK, etc, and I am guessing that the writers will) and two, so that they can stick it to the BCS boys.