BCS Predictions: Breaking Down an Alabama-Ohio State National Championship Game

Five weeks into the season, the top two teams when we started the season, Alabama and Ohio State, are still there as the top teams in all the important polls.

Should the season play out as many expect, these teams, barring any bizarre events, will meet in Glendale for the BCS National Championship Game in January.

Looking at the matchup, Ohio State does have a slight edge in that Alabama's strengths play into OSU's strengths, running the football vs. stopping the run and a blitzing defense vs. a suddenly explosive offense.

But one can also make the argument that Nick Saban is a more creative coach and better at preparing his teams for big games in recent years than Jim Tressel.

And even the QB matchup is intriguing, with Alabama's Greg McElroy having not lost a game since the eighth grade, and Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor, who is a Heisman candidate and has looked like a vastly improved player from a season ago.

Here is a breakdown of what we should expect to see if these teams were to meet up as projected.

Ohio State's Offense vs. Alabama's Defense

When it comes to OSU's offense, it obviously starts and ends with Pryor, who, according to Jim Tressel at his press luncheon Thursday, seems to be fine after an injury scare at Illinois.

The other big concern for Ohio State is their RB situation, after Daniel "Boom" Herron and Brandon Saine have not been able to separate themselves as the go-to-guy out of the backfield.

In fact, the time might have to come to give carries to younger backs Jordan Hall and Jaamal Berry, both of whom have been spectacular in the return game.

The Buckeyes still maintain a very strong receiving corps with the fluid and athletic DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher, who probably has the best hands on the team.

But they seemed to have found a surprise weapon in TE Jake Stoneburner, who is third on the team in receptions.

It's still a surprise to imagine that OSU has the 21th best offense in yards per game and ranks eighth in points per game.

But they will have to go toe-to-toe with the best defense in the country, allowing just nine points per game.

The defense is anchored by DE Marcell Dareus and star ILB Dont'a Hightower, both of whom are extremely athletic and fantastic hitters.

Sophomores Nico Johnson at LB and Dre Kirkpatrick at CB have been absolutely spectacular as they have just fit in seamlessly.

And with Kirby Smart's defensive philosophies, expect the Tide to send every blitz in the book at Pryor and force him to beat a tough back eight with his arm and not his feet.

But that might not be very easy to do since Ohio State is so strong at pass protection, especially using TEs and RBs as additional blockers to help out.

A healthy Pryor makes this matchup almost a toss-up, but after the Illinois injury, his health concerns tip this in Alabama's favor because if Pryor is forced to be one-dimensional, Saban's boys will try to tee off on No. 2 in scarlet and gray.

Alabama's Offense vs. Ohio State's Defense

To say that Alabama is loaded on offense is an understatement.

What Greg McElroy has at his disposal, looking at the RB and WR positions, is nothing short of staggering.

At the RB position, the Tide can roll out Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and sophomore Trent Richardson and see little dropoff in production from either back.

WRs Julio Jones, Marquis Maze, and Darius Hanks are easily one of the best receiving corps in the country, and could feast on an Ohio State secondary ravaged by injuries early on in the season.

With a powerhouse offensive line in front of him, McElroy really only needs to manage games, although we all know he can certainly do better than that.

If the Buckeyes do possess any mental edge in this game, it's that Alabama plays a Big Ten-style of offense built on running the football in the I-formation and being physical.

And with a defense that is fifth in total defense, including eighth in rush defense, the Buckeyes are no slouch when it comes to playing physical defense.

And if anything has changed from the last time Ohio State competed in a national championship game, it's that the front seven must get stronger, which it has.

Up front, Ohio State has quite a strong tandem of physical run-stuffers in DE Cameron Heyward and DT John Simon. DE Nathan Williams has a very high motor as a pass rusher from the DE/OLB hybrid position, or LEO.

In the back seven, LBs Brian Rolle and Ross Homan might be one of the best LB tandems with their great blend of athleticism and intelligence.

The secondary is a major question mark despite the strong play of DB Chimdi Chekwa.

In the course of the past few weeks, the Buckeyes have lost S C.J. Barnett and S/LB Tyler Moeller to season-ending injuries, creating holes in the OSU defense.

True freshman DB Christian Bryant played well in filling in for Moeller at Illinois in the STAR (S/LB hybrid) role, but S Orhian Johnson has had a harder time making an impact defensively.

If Alabama tries to run the football a majority of the time, the matchup meter swings towards Ohio State due to the great talent in the front seven.

But if Alabama wants to have success, they should look to pass more frequently against a Buckeye defense that gave up 208 yards through the air to Eastern Michigan.

Final Score:

Alabama: 24
Ohio State: 21

While Ohio State brings so much talent to the table ready to avenge back-to-back BCS Championship Game embarrassments, the injury situation took away some of the fire from the defense which could hurt them later in the season.

Also, while Pryor is so much better than he was at this time a season ago, he still has shown he is vulnerable to constant pressure.

But as history has taught us, one month can change everything, so the chances of this matchup happening might not be as likely as expected.

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