College Football Week 6: Predictions Against the Spread

A terrible 5-10-1 record last week leaves a ton of room for improvement.  There are several playable lines on this weekends’ stuffed college football betting board, but figuring out which spreads to take can become extra convoluted during conference play. 

Most teams are already two games deep into playing their regular conference foes and now is the time for the contenders to take extra strides towards that championship crown.

Let’s dive in and check out the spreads for AP’s Top 25.  There has to be more wins this weekend than last.

Last Week's Record: 5-10-1

Overall Record: 49-43-4

No. 1 Alabama (-6.5) @ No. 19 South Carolina

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TUSCALOOSA, AL - OCTOBER 02: Mark Ingram #22 of the Alabama Crimson Tide celebrates his touchdown against the Florida Gators with Preston Dial #85 and Michael Williams #89 at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 2, 2010 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevi

The Crimson Tide is riding an unbelievable 19 game winning streak, covering 14 spreads in the process. 

While South Carolina’s offense will definitely be an upgrade from what the Tide saw last week, Alabama seems to be on a level way above the rest right now and a big win against a ranked team on the road is completely plausible.

Pick: Alabama -6.5

No. 2 Ohio State (-22.5) Vs. Indiana

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COLUMBUS, OH - OCTOBER 25: Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Jim Tressell instructs his quarterback Terrell Pryor #2 during the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions on October 25, 2008 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Imag

The Buckeyes have covered nine of their last 10 spreads in Columbus, ranging from plus-seven to -44. 

Indiana’s offense is not a joke, though, thanks to senior quarterback Ben Chappell. They currently rank 12th in scoring offense (39.8).

However, Ohio State’s 18th ranked passing defense (161.8 yards/g) should force Chappell to make several mistakes and keep Indiana completely out of this game. 

Pick: Ohio State -22.5

No. 3 Oregon (-36) @ Washington State

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EUGENE, OR - OCTOBER 2: Running back LaMichael James #21 of the Oregon Ducks celebrates as he scores a touchdown in the second quarter of the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Autzen Stadium on October 2, 2010 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Steve Dykes/

Covering the spread on the road in the Pacific Northwest has not been a problem for the Ducks, handily beating every line the past five trips.

The last time the Ducks landed in Pullman, they squashed the Cougars, 63-14.

Oregon’s explosive offense should once again have a field day against the Cougars’ worthless defense.

Pick: Oregon -36

No. 4 Boise State (-38.5) Vs. Toledo

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BOISE, ID - SEPTEMBER 25: Linebacker Billy Derome #25 of the Boise State Broncos leads his team onto the field before the game against the Oregon State Beavers at Bronco Stadium on September 25, 2010 in Boise, Idaho. (Photo by Otto Kitsinger III/Getty I

It is highly improbably that Toledo’s offense (ranked 92nd in scoring) will keep up with the ferocity of Kellen Moore and the Broncos’ offense.

The Rockets lost to Arizona by 38 points in Toledo and it is extremely likely that Boise State can increase this spread on the blue turf.  

Pick: Boise State -38.5   

No. 5 TCU (-34.5) Vs. Wyoming

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DALLAS - SEPTEMBER 24: Tailback Ed Wesley #34 of the TCU Horned Frogs is tackled by Taylor Reed #44 of the SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on September 24, 2010 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

TCU has been a difficult team to figure out this season, posting a 2-3 ATS record.

Wyoming, on the other hand, has covered four of five spreads this season, only failing to do so against Boise State.

TCU seems to be missing that extra “umpf” that they have had in previous seasons and covering this plump spread might be slightly difficult.

Pick: Wyoming +34.5  

No. 7 Nebraska (-12) @ Kansas State

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LINCOLN, NEBRASKA - SEPTEMBER 25: Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Taylor Martinez #3 tries to slip South Dakota State Jackrabbits cornerback Cole Brodie #21during second half action of their game at Memorial Stadium on September 25, 2010 in Lincoln, Nebr

Nebraska has had a week off since their unimpressive win over feeble South Dakota State and they should be looking to quickly explode all over their final Big 12 Conference opener. 

Although Taylor Martinez’s last performance doesn’t spark confidence in Nebraska’s offense, don’t be surprised if the Cornhuskers return to the form displayed in the Washington game. 

The Wildcats are definitely out of their league in this one. 

Pick: Nebraska -12  

No. 8 Auburn (-6) @ Kentucky

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AUBURN, AL - SEPTEMBER 25: Michael Dyer #5 of the Auburn Tigers against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Jordan-Hare Stadium on September 25, 2010 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

While Kentucky’s 21st ranked passing offense will be hoping to take advantage of Auburn’s weak secondary, the Wildcats should be playing catch up for most of this game.

If Auburn’s defense can dig deep and control Kentucky’s passing game, Cameron Newton and Auburn’s dangerous offense should not have a problem covering this spread.

Pick: Auburn -6

No. 9 Arizona (-8) Vs. Oregon State

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BOISE, ID - SEPTEMBER 25: Running back Jacquizz Rodgers #1 of the Oregon State Beavers runs the ball against the Boise State Broncos at Bronco Stadium on September 25, 2010 in Boise, Idaho. (Photo by Otto Kitsinger III/Getty Images)

Over the past nine games, Arizona has failed to cover the spread against Oregon State seven times.

This definitely could be a trap game for the Wildcats.  Oregon State is better than many might think and they have been known to go on a winning streak at about this time during the season. 

Pick: Oregon State +8

No. 10 Utah (-6) @ Iowa State

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FORT WORTH, TX - NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Jordan Wynn #3 of the Utah Utes reacts in the second quarter of the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium on November 14, 2009 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Utah owns a demanding 4-0 record against Iowa State. 

Although those games happened over more than three decades, the outcome this season should be fairly the same.  Utah’s sixth best scoring offense (44.3 p/g) will roll.

Pick: Utah -6

No. 11 Arkansas (-6) @ Texas A&M

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FAYETTEVILLE - SEPTEMBER 25: Ryan Mallett #15 of the Arkansas Razorbacks passes the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on September 25, 2010 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Alabama won 24-20. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Get

Texas A&M has surrendered only four touchdowns this season, but Ryan Mallet could match that total this weekend.

The Aggies’ offense has also put up flashy numbers early.  However, a stubborn Arkansas defense (12th in scoring defense with 15.5 pts/g) should keep their scoreboard totals to a minimum. 

Razorbacks win by at least 10 points. 

Pick: Arkansas -6

No. 12 LSU @ No.14 Florida (-7)

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TUSCALOOSA, AL - OCTOBER 02: Head coach Urban Meyer of the Florida Gators looks on from the sidelines during their game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 2, 2010 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Imag

After last weeks’ debacle in Arkansas, it is hard to take Florida again. 

But, after watching LSU barely sneak away with another win, it is hard to believe that these Tigers can survive any Urban Myer coached team.   

Florida rebounds and rebounds big. 

Pick: Florida -7

No. 13 Miami (-6.5) Vs. No. 23 Florida State

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PITTSBURGH - SEPTEMBER 23: Jacory Harris #12 of the Miami Hurricanes drops back to pass against the Pittsburgh Panthers on September 23, 2010 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Miami has a definite edge in this cross-state rivalry, winning seven of the last 10. 

This year’s matchup will eventually come down to which quarterback can actually live up their preseason hype.  

Christian Ponder’s only performance against a Top 25 team this season is slightly troubling and makes me believe that the Hurricanes will cover. 

Pick: Miami -6.5

No. 16 Stanford (-9.5) Vs. USC

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EUGENE, OR - OCTOBER 2: Quarterback Andrew Luck #12 of the Stanford Cardinal calls out signals at the line of scrimmage in the second quarter of the game against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium on October 2, 2010 in Eugene, Oregon. Oregon won the game

Pete Carroll may be gone, but Harbaugh’s hatred for USC is still pretty strong. 

Stanford can’t fall into this trap game, though.  If they are not careful, it could be the Trojans’ year to play the upset role.

However, USC’s passing defense is pretty pathetic, and Andrew Luck should make Swiss cheese out of it.   

Pick: Stanford -9.5

No. 17 Michigan State @ No. 18 Michigan (-4.5)

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ANN ARBOR, MI - SEPTEMBER 25: Roy Roundtree #12 of the Michigan Wolverines runs for a 32 yard gain after catching the pass from Denard Robinson during the first quarter of the game against Bowling Green on September 25, 2010 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arb

Michigan State has taken home the Paul Bunyan Trophy the past two seasons, but this year the Wolverines have a pest name Denard Robinson. 

Robinson will expose the weaknesses in the Spartans’ 78th ranked pass defense and he should put up a plethora of points.  Michigan wins by a touchdown in a barn burner.

Pick: Michigan -4.5

No. 20 Wisconsin (-22) Vs. Minnesota

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MINNEAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 18: Da'Jon McKnight #6 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers celebrates after catching a pass for a touchdown during the game against the USC Trojans on September 18, 2010 at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Jamie

Wisconsin has owned this rivalry the past six years, winning every single meeting.  Yet, the Badgers have only won by seven points or less in the previous three games. 

Something seems a little off with Wisconsin this season and Minnesota should keep this game fairly close.

Pick: Minnesota +22

No. 21 Nevada (-39) Vs. San Jose State

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LAS VEGAS - OCTOBER 02: Quarterback Colin Kaepernick #10 of the Nevada Reno Wolf Pack runs for a touchdown against the UNLV Rebels in the first quarter of their game at Sam Boyd Stadium October 2, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Nevada Reno won 44-26. (Photo

Nevada will be the fourth ranked team that San Jose State has faced this season and the result of this weekend’s game should not be any different than the rest.

Colin Kaepernick and Nevada’s deceptive pistol offense will annihilate these exhausted Spartans.

Pick: Nevada -39

No. 22 Oklahoma State (-24) @ LA-Lafayette

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STILLWATER, OK - SEPTEMBER 5: Running back Kendall Hunter #24 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys rushes for a nine yards during the third quarter of the game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Boone Pickens Stadium on September 5, 2009 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. (

LA-Lafayette ranks 94th or worse in rushing yards (101.3 y/g), points for (20.0 p/g), and points against (35.0 p/g).

The Cowboys second ranked offense (52.3 p/g) should drop bombs all over these mild Ragin’ Cajuns.  Even if LA-Lafayette finds ways to score, OSU will win by a ton.

Pick: Oklahoma State -24

No. 24 Missouri (-13) Vs. Colorado

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DENVER - SEPTEMBER 04: A supporter of the Colorado Buffaloes waives a flag in the endzone against the Colorado State Rams in the Rocky Mountain Showdown at INVESCO Field at Mile High on September 4, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Get

Missouri has outscored Colorado 149-27 the last three years, but, for some reason, the buzz feels different this season.

Colorado enters this game with a winning record for the first time since 2005, and while Missouri should win this game, the Buffaloes may stay within striking distance for a lot longer than many expect. 

Pick: Colorado +13

No. 25 Air Force (-25.5) Vs. Colorado State

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AIR FORCE ACADEMY, CO - NOVEMBER 11: Beau Suder #22 of the Air Force Falcons walks on the field during the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on November 11, 2006 at Falcon Stadium on the Air Force Academy near Colorado Springs, Colorado. (Photo

Air Force’s No.1 rushing offense (373.6 y/g) should completely flatten Colorado State’s 104th ranked rushing defense (203.5 y/g).

The Rams’ offense is not capable of keeping anywhere close to the point totals that the Falcons’ running game should rattle off in this game. 

Pick: Air Force -25.5

UCLA @ California (-7.5)

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PASADENA, CA - OCTOBER 02: Sean Sheller #72 and Taylor Embree #82 of the UCLA Bruins celebrate Embree's two-point conversion against the Washington State Cougars during the third quarter at the Rose Bowl on October 2, 2010 in Pasadena, California. UCLA

The Bruins are coming off a huge win in Texas and the Bears are coming off a depressing loss in Arizona.

Logic says to take the team riding high and stay completely clear of the extremely volatile California Bears. 

Bruins should cover and could even emerge as the victor. 

Pick: UCLA +7.5