College Football Predictions: Texas over Oklahoma and Possible Week 5 Upsets
Week 4 on the college gridiron came in with a bang and, for many, ended with a huge thud.
Arkansas played ferociously for three quarters, and after converting fans across the nation to the mindset that they could and would beat ‘Bama, their fearless leader Ryan Mallet began throwing the ball to the wrong team and the day ended with a stinging Razorback loss.
Boise State’s chameleon act featured a noxious blue uniform on blue turf performance that resulted in a win over Oregon State. But, alas, it was not the kind victory loaded with the all-important “style points” necessary to change the minds of voters who will now have to wait until November’s match with Nevada to gauge again how “for real” the Broncos are.
In the meantime, perhaps BSU could cook up some extra credit in the “styling” category by changing their field and uniforms to orange...
And Texas, oh Texas...you certainly have made a mess of things; UCLA is now the “real deal” and even though you generously gave the Bruins the ball five times, your defense is suddenly porous and their offense is amazingly prolific. (And, was it just me or did Mack Brown’s hair look two shades grayer by games’ end?)
The common thread in the upsets that were and those that were not to be in Week 4 was turnovers.
Interceptions, fumbles, strips, muffed punts, tips, and drops combined to make the underdog win, the hopeful fall away, and the over dog victorious.
Week 5 in college football features 52 games involving FBS teams, three against FCS opponents and a season high of 19 FBS teams taking the week off from play.
The following slideshow again attempts to humbly identify the most realistic potential “upsets” in the upcoming slate of collegiate gridiron matchups.
And once more it strives not only to pinpoint the possible shockers but goes one step further in ranking them based on confidence level (one being the most assured and seven garnering the most doubt a.k.a. the “ridiculous” pick).
7. Washington over USC
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And here it is, this week's “ridiculous” pick.
Supported by nothing more than hearsay, intuition and outlandish reasoning: I gleefully and naively declare “Huskies over Trojans!”
Washington is 1-2 going into its annual meeting with USC, with losses to a disappointing BYU squad in week one and a week three beating at the hands of Nebraska (56-21) in Seattle; the sole win was at home over Syracuse in Week 2.
USC is a perfect 4-0 with wins over Hawaii, Virginia, Minnesota and Washington State; they are now ready for the “meat” of their season.
USC leads the overall series (which began in 1923) 49-27 and is 31-10 in Los Angeles. The Trojans are 7-2 vs. the Huskies since 2001 and though they dropped the 2009 contest 16-13 in Seattle they were victorious in the seven straight previous games.
The last time Washington beat USC at the LA Coliseum? Well, it was 14 long years ago in 1996 when the 9-3 Huskies beat the Trojans 21-10.
The Bottom Line
The Trojans are 10.5-point favorites over the Huskies and the game is being played in Los Angeles.
On paper, it is fairly clear that Washington should get beat down by a talented Trojan team that regardless of NCAA sanctions, coaching changes, or bowl bans seems ready to rip into its Pac-10 schedule like a pregnant woman ripping into a case of Moon Pies.
Washington hoped QB Jake Locker’s senior year would be the season that they finally broke their seven-year losing streak and their eight-year bowl drought. A 1-2 start with a nasty run of games ahead make six or seven wins seem doubtful at best for a Huskie team that hoped for better.
But hold on just one moment; before you count USC over Washington as a win before the two teams even take the field, let’s consider the following...
First, though, you definitely have to give the Trojans props for scheduling three non-conference games from the FBS (two from AQ schools) USC has beaten four teams that were a combined 16-34 in 2009.
Secondly, the margin of victory in these games in total was 148-87. Sounds good until you realize that the Trojan “D” allowed 87 points by four teams that averaged 90th in overall offense in 2009.
Furthermore, their 148 points were scored on defenses that averaged 82nd overall in 2009.
Washington, on the other hand, faced three programs that were a combined 25-14 in 2009 with a total margin of defeat of 79-99. The 79 points were scored on defenses that ranked an average of 22nd overall in 2009 and the 99 points were allowed against offenses that ranked 71st overall last season.
Even though these trends might point to a far-fetched Huskie advantage, it is still clear that Washington is a bona fide underdog that should indeed lose this game.
But let’s not forget about the Lane Kiffin factor; yes, what will the young Trojan leader do if and when things heat up in LA? If it suddenly comes down to coaching, who will win on Saturday?
Again, it will probably be the Trojans but wouldn’t it be fun to watch if...
No, that’s absolutely ludicrous.
Right?
6. Texas over Oklahoma
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No, I’m not back on the crack pipe and yes, I did see the last two dismal performances by Mack Brown and his Burnt Orange footballers.
However, I’m willing to take a stand that Texas still has a very reasonable chance of beating an Oklahoma Sooners squad (who certainly take the field with their own set of issues) in the 2010 edition of the Red River Rivalry.
Texas comes into Saturday afternoon’s game 3-1 with wins over Rice, Wyoming, Texas Tech, and the embarrassing loss to UCLA last Saturday in Austin.
Oklahoma is undefeated with wins over Utah State, Florida State, Air Force, and Cincinnati. The Red River Rivalry will be the Sooners first conference game of 2010.
The Longhorns lead the series 52-37 and are 48-36 since the game began being played at a neutral site (in 1923). The Sooners are 6-4 in the last decade, but Texas is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The Bottom Line
The Sooners are 4.5 point favorites and the game is being played at the Cotton Bowl at Fair Park in Dallas.
Everything about Texas’ performance vs. UCLA in Week 4 was bad, unsatisfactory, and in Mack Brown’s words “embarrassing.” But this poor showing cannot simply be taken to mean that the Longhorns are a bad football team and that Oklahoma will blow them out.
The Longhorns committed five turnovers against the Bruins but still held the statistical advantage in every category with the exception of rushing, time of possession, and obviously the final score.
Offensive production and defensive performance just cannot be expected to be stellar given four fumbles and one interception.
Thus far in 2010 the Sooners have been a passing team, they rank 10th overall in passing yards and 88th in rushing yards.
Texas’ defense actually matches up well with the Oklahoma offense; the Longhorns rank 12th overall in pass defense and though they gave up a generous 264 rushing yards to the Bruins, they only allowed 27 total passing yards in the loss to UCLA.
The Sooners played well in their blowout victory vs. Florida State in Norman, but other than that they have won their other three games (over Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati) by a total margin of 12 points. Additionally, the Oklahoma defense ranks 65th overall in points allowed (again, look at who they have played).
If Texas can rebound offensively, execute, and hold on to the ball then they may be able to find a way to score on an Oklahoma defense that has not been overly impressive thus far.
Additionally, if the Longhorn defense (which should be a dominant squad for the remainder of the season) can shut down the Sooner passing attack and force them to run the ball, OU might struggle offensively.
Oklahoma has looked questionable late in each of their games this season with the very prominent exception of the Florida State contest. If the Longhorns can keep it close and hang around to the end of this game they will have a chance to knock off the Sooners and win the Red River Rivalry.
I will now go back to smoking my crack pipe...
5. Vanderbilt over Connecticut
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The UConn Huskies were slated to have a “year to remember” and make a memorable run at a Big East title.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, was expected to have a “year to forget” with hopes of rebounding off a two-win season in 2009, but suffered the loss of their head coach Bobby Johnson just prior to the 2010 campaign kicking off.
After a disappointing loss to Michigan in its opener, Connecticut has gone on to beat Texas Southern (FCS), lose to Temple, and then beat Buffalo; all this resulting in what has to be considered a disappointing 2-2 mark going into the fifth week of the season.
Vanderbilt is 1-2 but is probably a better squad than their record might indicate. Their single win was an upset victory over Ole Miss in Oxford and their two losses were to the Big Ten’s Northwestern by two points and then a defeat to No. 19 LSU. Both good showings against better teams.
The Huskies and Commodores have only met once previously, in 2002, when Vandy bested UConn 28-24 in Nashville.
The Bottom Line
UConn is a touchdown favorite and the game is being played in Rentschler Field in Storrs, CT.
The Huskies have yet to dazzle thus far in 2010. Though they are 2-2 and, despite a loss to a good Michigan team on the road, the Huskies have been unimpressive thus far, especially given who they have faced.
UConn is statically better in every category but have earned these statistics against (with one exception) marginal opponents.
The Commodores, on the other hand, have scored 52 points and allowed only 64 points on three teams that all were bowl eligible in 2009 and all play in BCS conferences.
The Huskies will be playing at home and still have a realistic chance of capturing a conference title in a Big East where nobody can manage to establish themselves as the clear leader.
They have everything to play for and really need to beat the Commodores, who represent the last non conference game of the season.
However, if the Commodores can shut down the Huskie running attack and manage to find a way to use their ground game to find the end zone, they will have a shot.
We are about to find out how good UConn really is and how far Vanderbilt has come from last season, regardless of the sudden coaching upheaval.
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4. Navy over Air Force
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After a close win over Wyoming last Saturday, the running Falcons ready themselves for part one of the two part job of securing the Commander in Chief trophy. This mission will obviously fail if Air Force cannot upend Navy this weekend in Colorado Springs.
Air Force is 3-1 coming into its annual meeting with the Midshipmen with wins over Northwestern State (FCS), BYU, Wyoming, and a close loss to Oklahoma in Norman.
Navy, on the other hand, is 2-1 coming into Week 4 with a loss in its opener vs. Maryland and wins over Georgia Southern (FCS) and Louisiana Tech.
Air Force leads the all-time series 25-17 and is 14-6 when the game is played in Colorado Springs.
Though behind in the overall count against the Falcons, the Midshipmen have owned this series over the past several years. They are 7-3 vs. Air Force in the last decade and have won the past seven straight vs. the Falcons.
The last Air Force victory over Navy was in 2002 when the Falcons bested the Midshipmen 48-7 at Falcon Stadium.
The Bottom Line
Air Force is a 10-point favorite and the game is being played at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, CO.
Air Force proved that they are a force to be reckoned with in their narrow three point defeat by No. 8 Oklahoma in Norman (keep in mind that Bob Stoops has only lost two games in Norman in his coaching tenure with the Sooners).
Frankly, Navy has yet to dazzle and despite a good showing vs. Maryland in the opener close victories over Georgia Southern (17-13) and Louisiana Tech (37-23), the wins have not bolstered a lot of confidence in the Midshipmen’s football squad.
Both teams have been very successful running the ball. Navy ranks number nine nationally in rushing yards, while the Falcons are number one in the nation in rushing. Neither team has been successful in their passing attack.
This one will come down to who can stop the run. Navy has allowed, thus far, an average of 162.7 yards per rushing per game (against teams that averaged 67th overall in rushing in 2009), while Air Force has allowed 142.5 yards per game rushing (against opponents that averaged 71st overall in rushing in 2009).
The recent series between the two has been as close as the comparative statistics going in to the 2010 meeting; only 36 points have separated the teams in the last seven meetings.
This game will likely be close and come down to a couple of miscues or big plays making the difference.
As unfounded as it may seem, I give the edge to a Navy team who knows it can knock off Air Force and who plays with a lot of intensity and pride under Ken Niumatalolo.
Air Force may be ten-point favorites and playing at home, but they will have to fight like hell to rip the Commander and Chief trophy out of the stalwart, resilient fingers of the Midshipmen.
3. Stanford over Oregon
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And so it’s back out to the West Coast for what has to be considered the Pac-10 game of the week. Two top 10 undefeated teams clash in a conference game with loads of implications on both sides.
It’s titillating.
Stanford is 4-0 with wins over Sacramento State (FCS), a shutout on the road vs. UCLA, over Wake Forest, and last weekend’s defeat of Notre Dame in South Bend.
Oregon is also perfect with wins over New Mexico, at Tennessee, vs. Portland State (FCS), and at Arizona State.
Stanford leads the series 41-28 overall and is 17-15 in Eugene. More recently, the Ducks are 7-2 vs. the Cardinal since 2001, which also marks the last time that Stanford won at Oregon in a 49-42 shootout.
Stanford edged Oregon 52-41 in their 2009 meeting in Stanford, but dropped their seven straight previous games to the Ducks.
The Bottom Line
Oregon is favored by a touchdown and the game is being played at the deafening Autzen Stadium in Eugene OR.
The Ducks and the Cardinal stack up fairly evenly on paper. Both are teams that have been very successful running the ball, scoring points, and preventing opponents from scoring.
Though neither has had the same success throwing the ball as they have had on the ground, they both have managed respectable national rankings in the mid 40s in terms of yards gained through the air.
Though the Ducks have the statistical edge in every category, a reasonable argument could be made that Stanford has faced the more difficult set of opponents to this point. Especially given that UCLA and Notre Dame were both road games.
Stanford’s three FBS wins came against teams who were a combined 18-19 in 2009, while Oregon’s three FBS victories came vs. opponents who had a combined 12-25 record in 2009.
Both teams have been reasonably successful at stopping the run with Stanford only allowing 114.3 yards rushing per game in 2010 and the Ducks giving up 122.8 yards per game on the ground thus far.
Of note, in Oregon’s week four game vs. Arizona State the Ducks defense gave up 597 yards of total offense to a unit that only returned three starters from 2009. Additionally, the Sun Devils committed seven turnovers in their 42-31 loss to the Ducks, which leaves you wondering what they would have done if say they had only lost the ball four times?
Overall, Stanford has played solid football and if they can find a way to squelch the Duck running attack, score points on an Oregon “D” that has pitched two shutouts thus far in 2010, and limit making any huge mistakes in Eugene, they may just continue their quest for perfection and a possible Rose Bowl berth.
Can the Cardinal squad demoralize the Ducks in a way that will take the wild, quacking Autzen crowd out of the game?
2. North Carolina State over Virginia Tech
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The North Carolina State vs. Virginia Tech game exemplifies the greatness of college football.
Coming in to 2010 and looking ahead to Week 5 in the ACC games such as Notre Dame at Boston College or Miami at Clemson might have made a list of “games to watch” (and will still garner the interest of many college football enthusiasts).
But who had the October 2nd meeting between NC State and V. Tech at the top of any watch list?
Well young grasshopper, now that we have four weeks of college football under our bulging belts we know that Virginia Tech (who was expected to vie for an ACC Coastal crown) is 2-2 while North Carolina State (who was expected to ride its offense and hope for the best with its defense to try and avoid a fifth straight losing season) is a perfect 4-0, ranked No. 23 in the AP poll and just two games away from bowl eligibility.
The game that seemed less than important a mere few weeks ago is now slated to be broadcasted nationally by ABC in the prime 3:30 p.m. EST slot.
The Wolfpack come into Saturday’s game vs. the Hokies with wins over Western Carolina, UCF, Cincinnati, and Georgia Tech. The Hokies on the other hand dropped their first two games to Boise State and James Madison (FCS) and have won two straight vs. East Carolina and Boston College.
The series between the two began in 1902 and Virginia Tech leads all time 22-19, but the Wolfpack has the edge in Raleigh 8-3.
NC State is 1-2 in its last three games vs. the Hokies (2004, 2005 and 2009) with Virginia Tech winning the last meeting 38-10 in Blacksburg.
The Bottom Line
Virginia Tech is favored by just over a field goal and the game is being played at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh NC.
It’s the surging Wolfpack vs. a Hokie team still in the process of trying to salvage their season.
However, it’s way too early to declare N.C. State a front runner in the ACC and it’s also way too soon to declare Virginia Tech out of the race.
N.C. State’s QB Russell Wilson has been nothing short of spectacular thus far (85/142, 1112 yards, 11TDs) and notably holds the NCAA record for consecutive throws without a pick at 379. The Wolfpack ranks 19th nationally in passing yards.
The Hokies, on the other hand, have struggled against the pass ranking 63rd nationally in pass defense allowing 767 yards of passing through the first four games of 2010.
On the other side of the ball, Virginia Tech has been more successful running the ball (ranking 41st nationally), but the Wolfpack defense led by Linebacker Nate Irving (who registered a blistering 16 tackles, two sacks and 4.5 tackles for a loss vs. Georgia Tech) has only allowed an average of 125.8 yards per game on the ground so far this season.
The momentum is also swinging in favor of North Carolina State, who is 4-0 for the first time in eight years and ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in seven years. Carter-Finley will be filled to the brim and rabid for a win vs. the Hokies.
1. Texas A&M over Oklahoma State
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Preseason indicators pointed towards the Aggies having a breakout season in 2010 while the Cowboys would suffer through a rebuilding year.
If Texas A&M could manage to improve its defense, they had a real opportunity to unseat Texas or Oklahoma in the Big 12 South while the Cowboys were expected to retool under new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen and rebuild a defense that lost all but three starters after 2009.
Now three games into the season, Oklahoma State is ranked number 24 in the coaches poll and is ranked No. 1 in the country in total offense.
The Cowboys enter Thursday night’s battle with the Aggies 3-0, with convincing wins over Washington State, Troy and Tulsa. Texas A&M also goes into the contest at 3-0, with big wins over Stephen F. Austin (FCS), Louisiana Tech, and then a close victory over Florida International.
The Aggies lead the overall series 17-7 and are 7-3 in Stillwater. Texas A&M has a 6-4 edge in the last decade but have dropped the last two games vs. the Cowboys.
The Bottom Line
The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites over the Aggies and the game is being played at Boone-Pickens Stadium in Stillwater.
This is the Big 12 conference opener for both teams.
Both these teams are offensively powerful and they both put up big numbers in their first three games of the season. Both have top quarterbacks in Jerrod Johnson and Brandon Weeden.
The Cowboys are No. 3 nationally in scoring while the Aggies are 12th overall.
Oklahoma State’s obscene offensive numbers were racked up on three opponents who, averaged together, ranked a dismal 103rd in total defense in 2009.
The Aggies on the other hand, earned their offensive place nationally by playing a good FCS team and two FBS squads who combined to rank 90th overall in total defense in 2009.
It remains to be seen how these offenses will fare against defenses that were expected to struggle in 2009, but who certainly should have more talent and athleticism than they have faced thus far in 2010.
This game will more than likely be a high scoring affair that will ultimately come down to defense and turnovers.
This is where Texas A&M has the definite edge, ranking 10th in overall defense in 2010 and allowing only 43 total points thus far this season vs. the 83 points allowed by the Cowboy “D”.
Those who see the Aggies dropping this game in Stillwater will point to their close call vs. Florida International (27-20) in Week 3 as a main cause for concern for the viability of an A&M victory.
It is important to note that Texas A&M turned the ball over five times against FIU; if this happens again the Aggies will indeed struggle and likely lose in Stillwater. If not, they have the edge and should have a reasonable chance of winning.
Even though Jerrod Johnson threw four picks in the game vs. FIU, this is completely out of character for Johnson who has been careful with the ball in the past two seasons (10 picks in 2008 and only eight in 2009). This trend should not be expected to continue.
Furthermore, it is highly unlikely, especially based on the last few years filled with sackcloth and teeth gnashing in College Station, that Texas A&M will be looking ahead to Arkansas next week and forget that Oklahoma State is a unique challenge all its own.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
