Iowa Vs. Penn State: 10 Key Battles To Watch
This Saturday, Iowa will be hosting the Penn State Nittany Lions at Kinnick Stadium.
Right now, both teams are 3-1. Both have won three relative cupcake games, and both have lost games to Top 25 teams.
Despite the loss, spirits are very high in Iowa City. Most Hawkeye fans truly believe this team can win the Big Ten, and get back to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1991.
On the other hand, I don't think Penn State fans have any illusions about their team. Certainly, they can be a very respectable team, but I think this has to be seen as something of a rebuilding year, given what we've seen until now.
Of course, with a few bounces and a good schedule, a "rebuilding year" could still mean 10 wins for Penn State.
Meanwhile, I'm not entirely sure what we have in the Hawkeyes. Yes, they can obliterate lesser opponents, but so could the 2005 Hawks, who went 7-5. What the 2005 Hawks couldn't do was beat quality opponents.
I think this game will tell us a lot about Iowa on both sides of the ball. If this team can control the line of scrimmage, take care of the football, and play better on special teams, then this might very well be another season to remember.
If it can't...well, 2005 wasn't a terrible year.
Chaz Powell Vs. Iowa Kickoff Return Squad
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It's hardly news to Hawk fans that their kickoff team has not been stellar this year.
They have already let up one touchdown, and had two close calls against Iowa State. After four games, Iowa has the second-worst kickoff return average in the conference.
Meanwhile, as a team, Penn State ranks No. 2 in the conference in kickoff returns. Returner Chaz Powell is at the top of the list of individual returners, with over 33 yards per return.
You can be sure that the PSU coaches will tell Powell to take out anything that isn't absolutely buried in the end zone.
A key to the Iowa gameplan every single week is to make their opponents earn their points. That is exactly what they didn't do against Arizona, and the end result was a 14-point deficit before Arizona had played more than one offensive series.
If Iowa is to beat Penn State, let alone any of their other Big Ten opponents, they will have to make sure that doesn't happen again.
Revenge and Recent History Vs. Iowa
2 of 10In 2008, Penn State came into Iowa City at 9-0, looking to go undefeated and clinch a spot in the National Championship game. The Penn State fanbase was about as optimistic as it has been this decade.
After all, they only had to beat an a 5-4 Iowa team, and then finish up the year with Indiana and Michigan State at home.
Penn State came into the game as seven-point favorites, and at halftime, it looked like they were going to pull out the win.
One field goal kick later and Penn State's national title hopes were over.
In 2009, Penn State and Iowa were both 4-0 heading into the conference opener. PSU had looked impressive in its out-of-conference slate, but it hardly faced any stiff competition. Still, they had a typically staunch Penn State defense, and they returned their senior quarterback, Daryll Clark.
This time the Nits came into the game as 10-point favorites. Their first offensive play was a 79-yard touchdown bomb from Clark to Chaz Powell, and it looked like PSU would exact their revenge.
Nevertheless, after that play the Iowa defense allowed barely 200 yards on the remainder of the night, and the Hawks came away with a 21-10 victory.
Coming into the game this year, Iowa is the 7.5 point favorite.
So, are you feeling positive, Iowa fans? Feeling optimistic? That's good, because that's exactly how Penn State fans have felt for the past two years.
Before the roof caved in.
Stefen Wisniewski Vs. Mike Daniels, Christian Ballard, and Karl Klug
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For the second year in a row, Penn State's offensive line is kind of lousy.
After their first four games, they are averaging 4.36 yards per carry. That would be quite good if their opponents had been Alabama, Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State. However, they averaged 4.05 yards per carry against Kent State.
If you want to compare their performance to a good Penn State line, the 2008 team averaged 6.46 in their first four games, three of which were against cupcakes. The 2005 team averaged 5.66 against their first four opponents, one of which was an in-conference game, and two of which were against bowl eligible teams.
Blackshoediaries.com appropriately described last year's line as a stop sign, a turnstile, a traffic cone, a scarecrow, and a banana peel.
This year looks to be much the same, though in some fairness, the traffic cone—one Stefen Wisniewski—has moved into the scarecrow's spot and is considerably better than that.
Regardless, the line will look to prove its worth and not pin its hopes of winning on its true freshman quarterback's arm. In effect, Wisniewski, the turnstile, and the traffic cone will look to blow away the inside of Iowa's defensive line and lead running back Evan Royster to the second level.
If they do that, they stand a good chance of winning this game.
Unfortunately for the Lions, Iowa currently has the third-best run defense in the country.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Evan Royster Vs. Jeff Tarpinian
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Senior Evan Royster has had an up-and-down career.
In his two years as starter, he has rushed for over 1,000 yards and over five yards per carry both years.
On the other hand, he has faced a ranked opponent nine times, and has compiled over 100 yards in only one of those contests. That one time was in 2008 against Oregon State, who did not have a particularly good defense.
In those nine games, he has gotten four touchdowns. Three of those were against Oregon State.
Meanwhile, Jeff Tarpinian is entering his fifth year on campus. He was slotted to take over the weakside linebacker position in 2008, but an injury took him out of the mix.
Over the last two years, he has backed up both the weakside and strongside linebacker spot, and has served as Iowa's hybrid linebacker/safety in their 3-3-5 alignment.
This year, he is starting at the middle linebacker, and in three games—he missed the first game with a broken hand—he has compiled the most tackles-per-game in the Big Ten, with 10.67.
As previously mentioned, the key for Iowa's defense—as usual—will be to stop the run and force true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden to try to beat them.
In typical Iowa fashion, this will mean that the defense will maintain their gaps, and attempt to funnel the running backs right to Iowa's waiting linebackers.
Iowa's Interior Offensive Line Vs. Ollie Ogbu and Jordan Hill
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Penn State is currently ranked sixth in the Big Ten in yards allowed per carry at 3.8. They are seventh in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game. This is not bad, but it is nowhere near Penn State's usual standards.
One would have to go back to 2004 to find the last Penn State rush defense that allowed more than three yards per carry on the season. By the way, that 2004 team went 4-7.
At this point, one might argue that PSU's stats are skewed due to their 24-3 loss to Alabama. Fair enough. After all, Bama ran for 5.29 yards per carry against the Nits. However, Temple—who is a very good MAC team—also put up 4.9 yards against Penn State.
Meanwhile, FCS Youngstown State and Kent State ran for a combined 2.25 yards against the Nits. Pretty good, but compare that to how Penn State's rush defense fared against last season's cupcake opponents Akron, Temple, and Eastern Illinois. Those three teams ran for a combined 1.46 yards per carry. And last year's Temple team, which finished 9-4, could hardly even be considered a true "cupcake."
Iowa's rushing offense is currently ranked seventh in yards per carry in the Big Ten. More importantly, the one truly good defense that Iowa played—Arizona—held them to 1.12 yards per carry. Of course, the Wildcats absolutely sold out to stop the run. Furthermore, they were put in a position where they could take chances, because of the Hawkeyes' special teams miscues.
Due to the limitations and talents of Iowa's feature back, Adam Robinson, it is probable that Iowa will try to run inside, right over Iowa's young and inexperienced guards and between the Hawkeyes' somewhat more experienced tackles.
Iowa's guards and center will look to get past the line and to the second level. If they do that, tailback Adam Robinson is sure to have a big day.
Furthermore, if they are successful in doing this, their chances of winning this game will increase exponentially.
Tom Bradley Vs. Selling Out To Stop The Run
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Penn State runs a defensive scheme that is very similar to Iowa's. In fact, maybe I should say that Iowa runs a defensive scheme that is very similar to Penn State's. After all, Joe Pa has been around a little bit longer than Kirk Ferentz.
It's probably no surprise that their schemes are similar, as Ferentz grew up in Pittsburgh watching Penn State.
Both schemes are basically the frustrating, but very effective bend-don't-break. They begin and end with a strong defensive line. That line has to control the line of scrimmage and create a pass rush without the help of any consistent blitzing.
The linebackers have to read their keys, be solid, fundamental tacklers that flow to the ball, and dependable in coverage.
The defensive backs have to be disciplined, keep their assignments in front of them at all times, and be much better tacklers than the average D-back.
The advantage of this sort of defense is that it does not allow the big plays. The disadvantage is that a team can drive on it, if the offense is willing to be patient.
However, the entire defense is predicated on an ability to stop the run without bringing the safeties into the box, as well as generate a pass rush, primarily using only the front four.
One thing Iowa's recent history teaches us, is that under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has consistently been susceptible to the blitz. Moreover, the entire Iowa offense starts with the run, and the play action that is generated from the running game.
PSU defensive coordinator Tom Bradley will come into this game with one primary goal: Squash the Iowa running game.
As previously mentioned, the Lions' success in stopping the run this season, while respectable, has not been up to the standards of previous Penn State teams.
So, the question is: Will Tom Bradley go against his tendencies and sell out to stop the run, or will he stick with his scheme, and trust in his players?
Stephon Morris and D'Anton Lynn Vs. Marvin McNutt and DJK
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Penn State's passing defense is currently ranked first in the conference. On the other hand, their pass defense efficiency is a not-quite-as-respectable sixth.
Moreover, their completion percentage allowed is an even less respectable eighth.
What does this tell us?
It tells us that Penn State runs a bend-don't-break defense, which has already been noted. Therefore, it means that yards will be there for Iowa's receivers. Nevertheless, they will have to be satisfied with underneath stuff, and they will have to execute when they have the opportunity.
On the other hand, if D-coordinator Tom Bradley bucks trends and sells out to stop the run, that will leave McNutt and DJK alone on an island with Morris and Lynn.
If that happens, Ricky Stanzi and his receivers will have to take advantage of those matchups. Furthermore, they will have to do it more consistently than they did against Arizona.
Nick Sukay and Drew Astorino Vs. Ricky Stanzi
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As I said, on defense, Penn State will try to do the same thing that Iowa tries to do. They will attempt to take away the run, while giving Iowa the underneath routes against their secondary.
As Iowa fans know, schematically speaking, it is simple to beat Iowa's defense. It just takes a patient, accurate quarterback that is willing to take the underneath stuff all day.
Historically, Ricky Stanzi has never been that sort of quarterback. He wants to lure everybody in with the playaction, and then go over the top for a big play. However, this year, he seems to have turned a page.
Certainly, Stanzi and the Iowa offense will try and suck Penn State's safeties into the play, and then go right over them to their big play receivers.
However, if Sukay and Astorino don't get sucked in, will Stanzi have the maturity and patience to play Northwestern-style football?
Chris Colasanti Vs. Adam Robinson
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Have I impressed how important it will be for both teams to establish their own running game, and shut down the other's running game?
If not, let me impress it upon you now. That will be the absolute key for both teams. That will be the first, second, and third priorities for both of these squads.
That said, the man that will carry the mail for Iowa will be sophomore Adam Robinson.
A-Rob is not going to outrun too many teams. He is also not a back that is going to outrace fast linebackers around the end on stretch plays.
However, he is patient, has great vision, and is superb when he gets into the open field. In fact, the best word to describe Robinson might be "slippery."
Thus far this season, he is sixth in the Big Ten in rushing yards, and third in total-yards-from-scrimmage.
Meanwhile, senior Chris Colasanti has played well as a starter, but he hasn't quite lived up to the likes of his predecessors at Linebacker U. Certainly, he is fundamentally solid, but he lacks the instincts of a Paul Posluszny, or the aggressiveness of a Dan Connor.
Nevertheless, right now, he is tied for second in the conference in tackles with 34.
As mentioned earlier, Iowa will look to run it right up Penn State's gut. PSU will hope their line takes out Iowa's blockers, and gives the Linebacker U backers the opportunity to make clean tackles.
In all likelihood, the lion's share of those tackles will fall to Colasanti.
Robert Bolden Vs. Kinnick Stadium
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When true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden steps into Kinnick Stadium, he will be no stranger to hostile environments.
After all, the second game of his collegiate career was at Tuscaloosa against the defending national champion Crimson Tide.
However, this will be his first Big Ten game, as well as his first night game.
Meanwhile, Kinnick will be electric.
The athletic department has planned for this game to be a "Black and Gold Spirit Night." In effect, every fan in the odd numbered sections will wear black. On the other hand, every attendee in the even numbered sections will be in gold.
By the time the game starts at 7:05 CST, people will have been tailgating for well over 12 hours. They will be absolutely stoked, and many in the audience will probably be a little hammered as well.
If Iowa can pull out to early lead and make some big plays to get the crowd going, Kinnick Stadium will explode.
Unfortunately for Robert Bolden, he will be at the receiving end of that.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
