Florida vs. Alabama Odds and Pick, October 2, 2010

Saturday’s NCAAF schedule is absolutely littered with “must watch” games, but one game in particular jumps off the college football betting board as the top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide host the #7 Florida Gators. Vegas currently has the Florida vs. Alabama point spread set at the Tide -7.5 with the 'total' holding steady at 48 points.

Alabama had a scare last week as they were losing to the Arkansas Razorbacks late, until Mark Ingram scored a touchdown to take the 24-20 lead with just over three minutes left in regulation. Although Bama fans were pleased to escape with the victory, the Tide failed to cover the point spread for the first time this season.

Speaking of covering, with their 48-14 win over Kentucky last weekend Florida covered the spread for their third straight game.

Florida quarterback John Brantley won’t be confused with Tim Tebow anytime soon but has been solid despite issues with completing passes down field. In their four victories this season Brantley tossed six touchdowns and only one pick.

If the Gators expect to keep Saturday’s game close, Brantley will have to continue to play within himself and not turn the ball over to Alabama’s opportunistic defense. Crimson Tide opponents have turned the ball over nine times combined in 2010.

Florida will be looking to avenge last year’s embarrassing 32-13 loss to Alabama in the SEC Title game. The Gators were 5.5 point favorites.

Both teams have been very generous to bettors recently. Dating back to 2008 the Gators are 21-9 against the spread (ATS). They also rise to the occasion when playing a quality opponent; they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record.

Meanwhile, Alabama is 21-10 ATS over the last three seasons and is 17-7 ATS coming off of two or more outright victories over the same time frame.

When these teams have played in recent past, the home team covered in four of their last five match-ups. Additionally, the Gators only covered the spread one time in their last eight tries versus Alabama.

For gamblers looking to bet on the over-under, many of the key numbers are pointing towards the ‘under’ and bettors have taken notice as the majority of the early cash is backing the 'under'. This is kind of odd considering that the betting public usually backs the ‘over’ in games like this. So why is the ‘under’ the popular play?

This season, Florida’s opponents have averaged 14.3 points per game (PPG), while Alabama’s opponents have combined for just 9.8 PPG.

Traditionally when the Gators and Tide meet, the defenses show up. The last five times they played each other, they combined for fewer than Saturday’s ‘total’ (48 points), four times. The average combined score in those games was 42.4 points.

The Crimson Tide defense has been on an absolute tear when playing in front of their home crowd since the start of the 2008 season. In the 16 home games they played, their opponents averaged just 7.4 PPG.  Additionally, only five of those opponents were able to put double-digit points on the scoreboard with the highest scoring output being just 20 points in 2008 versus Ole Miss.

Oddsauthority.com Florida vs. Alabama Picks:

Alabama -7.5

Under 48 points

Coming off last weekend’s scare, the Crimson Tide will get back to doing what they do best, pummeling their opponents. John Brantley faces by far his biggest test of his career and will likely struggle. Although his play has been solid this season, he will be facing a different beast Saturday. Florida will be fortunate to score 17 points. Final Score 28-17.

For more game previews and to check the betting odds on all of the weekend's key games, check out Oddsauthority.com.