College Football Predictions: Ohio St Vs. Miami and Possible Week 2 Upsets
Week 1 of the 2010 college football season finally got underway last Thursday night and included 78 games involving 117 FBS teams.
In terms of upsets (straight up, not against the odds makers’ spread) the opening week witnessed eight upsets (depending on which odds are utilized). Numerically speaking, this means that about 90 percent of teams that “should have won” were actually victorious.
A mind-boggling 39 FBS teams played FCS teams in Week 1. That equals a whopping 50 percent of all FBS games for the opening weekend.
If nothing else this is a tribute to a great deal of major college football participating in an unofficial “preseason” slate of games. Of course this does not include FBS teams from BCS conferences who play other FBS teams who are not from a non BCS conference (also many times scheduled as “warm up” games).
All in all, victory rates could certainly be expected to be high given the September tendency to schedule opponents from a lower division and/or smaller conference.
The FBS teams were 37-2 vs. the FCS is week one.
The first of the two FBS vs. FCS losses came via the shocker in Oxford as Jacksonville State stunned Ole Miss 49-48 in double overtime in what Rebel coach Houston Nutt termed “the worst loss of his career”.
The second loss had much less media coverage but was equally astounding as North Dakota State ordered up a smothered steak defense and shut down the Kansas Jayhawks by a rousing 6-3 final tally.
Other FBS teams that won but won ugly were Texas, Oklahoma and Florida who were ultimately victorious against greatly overmatched opponents, it just wasn’t pretty.
Week one in college football also demonstrates that upsets are difficult to identify (at least before they actually occur). TCU, Boise State, Michigan, Utah and Colorado all seemed ripe candidates to be upset; but in the end all of these teams stepped up, performed and ultimately proved the naysayers incorrect.
So, will the teams that played poorly in week one continue their questionable play into the second week or instead will they remedy the factors contributing to a poor performance and go into Week 2 renewed and improved?
And then what of the teams that performed well or as expected; will they be able to continue down the path to victory or instead (as the opponents presumably begin to become more difficult) will they begin to falter and fall in defeat?
Lastly, how about those teams that won big in their openers and what if any emotional hangovers might ensue and bleed into week two?
The second week of college football features 70 games involving 115 FBS teams, but this week only 25 of these games will feature an FBS program vs. an FCS squad (netting a more respectable 36 percent of all FBS games played).
And so, who this week will fall dramatically from the ranks of the “favored” to lose to a lowly underdog?
Well, truthfully, it is anyone’s guess.
That said the following slideshow will bravely yet humbly attempt to pinpoint seven of these unexpected results where teams may prove the astute odds makers wrong.
These seven carefully selected match-ups are ranked numerically in terms of confidence of the pick; with one being the most certain (dare I say “the lock”) and number seven inspiring the least assurance.
7. South Florida Over Florida
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You absolutely must believe that the Gators will improve upon their hideous offensive performance in week one vs. Miami (OH).
The Gators left seven snaps on the ground vs. the Redhawks and without Tebow at the helm the offensive squad amassed only 212 yards against a defense that ranked 70th nationally in 2009.
Meanwhile, in Skip Holtz’s coaching debut in Tampa, South Florida manhandled the FCS Stony Brook Seawolves 59-14.
Florida and South Florida have never met but provocatively the Big East leads the SEC all time by a mark of 21-18.
The Bottom Line
The Bulls upending a talent rich Gator squad seems less than probable. Going into the season it certainly seemed that after an easy opener vs. Stony Brook, South Florida had just better attempt to make it through its meeting with the Gators without getting too many players injured.
But the Gators less than savory performance against a Miami of Ohio squad that won only one game in 2009 (a seven point victory over the 5-7 Toledo Rockets) left a bad taste in the mouths of more than just Gator fans.
The big question is not if the Gators will improve offensively but when will they improve offensively. Indeed, just how long will it take to right the ship in Gainesville?
The Bulls are 17-point underdogs going into their Saturday meeting with the Gators and have played the role of “giant killer” before.
South Florida over Florida seems less than plausible but the level of confidence in all things football have certainly dropped in Gainesville, Florida making an unthinkable upset seem now remotely possible.
6. Syracuse Over Washington
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Washington needs to beat Syracuse to achieve its dreams of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2002.
After a disappointing 23 -17 loss to BYU in the opener the Huskies host the Orange this coming Saturday but then face an absolute frightening slate of opponents; home vs. Nebraska, at USC, at Arizona State, at Oregon State, at Arizona, Stanford, and then at Oregon.
Syracuse went 4-8 in 2009 and though they easily handled Akron 29-3 in week one, the Orange are one of the teams Washington could and should beat amongst a schedule that Phil Steele deems the seventh hardest in all the FBS.
Syracuse is almost two touchdown underdogs to the Huskies who have 2-1 advantage in the teams’ three game history, most recently the 2007 season opening 42-12 beat down of the Orange in Syracuse.
The Big East is 12-17 vs. the Pac-10 but Syracuse is 12-10 all-time against the Pac-10. This slight Orange advantage is a little misleading as it does not convey Syracuse’s not so savory 1-9-1 record for road games to the west coast since 1964.
The Bottom Line
Sensibility and logic all point to Washington beating Syracuse in Seattle but looks might simply be deceiving.
If the Orange can contain Jake Locker and manage to score points on a Washington defense that allowed BYU 408 total yards of offense a Syracuse win is possible.
5. Mississippi State over Auburn
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Mississippi State has lost their last 10 SEC openers including a 2009 49-24 drubbing on the road vs. Auburn in 2009.
Auburn comes to Starkville for its Thursday evening meeting with the Bulldogs touting a 54–25 record in its series with Mississippi State which began in 1910.
The Tigers are 15-7 in Starkville and are 8-2 vs. the Bulldogs since 2000.
Regardless of all these fun facts Auburn is only favored to beat Mississippi State by a measly two and a half points.
Both teams were successful in week one with the Bulldogs knocking off Memphis 49-7 and the Tigers drilling Arkansas State 52 -26.
The Bottom Line
Arkansas State (who ranked 95th in total offense in 2009) hung up almost 400 yards and 26 points on the Tiger defense in week one, while 323 of these yards were given up through the air.
If the Bulldogs rush defense can play well enough (they held Memphis to 41 yards rushing in Week 1) and force new Auburn QB Cameron Newton (a junior transfer from Florida) to press and make a few errors Mississippi State may have a chance.
As is the case in many upset scenarios the Bulldogs chances to shock both Auburn and the SEC may come down to protecting the football.
The Bulldogs ranked 87th in turnover margin in 2009 with minus five but suffered only one turnover (an interception) during the opener vs. Memphis.
Mississippi State will have to play flawless football to beat the Tigers in Starkville.
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4. Miami (FL) Over Ohio State
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Miami (FL) at Ohio State has to be considered one of the real “must see” games in Week 2 of the 2010 gridiron campaign.
“The” Ohio State vs. “The” U; it could be “The” game of the week . . .
The Hurricanes and Buckeyes are both teams looking to do big things in 2010 and their September 11th, Saturday afternoon meeting in the Horseshoe will be a tremendous early season test for both squads.
Ohio State has a 2-1 advantage in games played between the two programs. The Buckeyes won the first meeting back in 1977 (over a 3-8 ‘Canes team), the Hurricanes won game two in 1999 (the Kickoff Classic in New Jersey 23-12) and Ohio State triumphed in the teams’ most recent meeting 31-24 in the 2003 Fiesta bowl.
The Big 10 has a 61–47 lead in their all-time series with the ACC but Miami is a promising 20–10 all- time when matched against a Big 10 opponent.
Both teams registered big first week wins; Ohio State easily handling Marshall 45–7 and the Hurricanes dominating Florida A&M 45–0.
Both the AP and USA Today Coaches Poll have Ohio State and Miami ranked No. 2 and No. 12 respectively.
The Bottom Line
Though there are intriguing match-ups all over the field, chief among seems to be Terrelle Pryor vs. Jacory Harris. Both are juniors, both are Heisman candidates and both are keys to their teams being successful in the clash of the Canes against Buckeyes this Saturday.
Harris has competed 374 career passes in 615 attempts for 4757 yards and 39 touchdowns. Additionally, he has thrown 24 career interceptions.
Pryor has completed 284 career passes in 485 attempts for 3,652 yards and 33 touchdowns. He has thrown 15 career interceptions and also rushed for 1,424 yards.
Pryor is a dual threat but looks more comfortable running the ball than throwing from the pocket; Harris is a better pure passer and both have been accused of being careless with the football (but both have approximately a three percent interception rate).
The performance of the two quarterbacks may decide the outcome of this game. If the Canes’ defense can stop Pryor from running and force him to throw the ball they will have a definite advantage.
Regardless, Ohio State has a recent history of early season big game losses that have to be a concern to Buckeye fans. Since 2005 Ohio State has participated in two home and away series against national powerhouses (Texas and USC) and are 1–3 in these games (two losses being in Columbus).
Additionally, the Buckeyes (who have been regulars in the top 10 in the past several years) are just 12-11 against ranked teams since 2004.
Ohio State may be ranked higher and may be playing at home but don’t be surprised if the surging Hurricanes (stacked with speedy, talented athletes) upset the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe.
3. Michigan Over Notre Dame
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Notre Dame is a five-point favorite heading into its 31st meeting with the Wolverines of Michigan. Michigan leads the overall series 16–14 but Notre Dame is 8-5 as the home team.
Notre Dame football’s possible resurrection under Brian Kelly combined with Rich Rodriguez's quest to save both Michigan football and his job from demise make Saturday’s matchup irresistible.
Both teams played respectable opponents in Week 1 and really credit should be given to both programs for scheduling quality foes for their opener.
Michigan’s 30-10 win over UConn (which was in no way was a certainty, at least from a national standpoint) featured sophomore QB Denard Robinson putting on an impressive offensive demonstration (19 of 22, 186 yards and one touchdown through the air and 197 yards rushing).
The Irish, on the other hand, beat Purdue 23-12 in Brian Kelly’s coaching debut. The Notre Dame vs. Purdue matchup was statistically speaking fairly even with the Irish getting it done and securing a win in the end.
Both teams opened up at home with Michigan facing the more difficult opponent.
The Bottom Line
This should live up to the hype and be a great game. Coach Kelly and coach Rodriguez have faced off before during their tenures at Cincinnati and West Virginia, respectively.
Rodriguez has been at his post in Ann Arbor longer than Kelly; whether this is an advantage or disadvantage in this specific matchup remains to be seen.
Michigan had to contest with an UConn team ready to make a national statement and in the end held a talented and hungry Huskie offense that averaged over 31 points in 2009 to only 10 points.
Ultimately it all may come down to whether or not the Notre Dame defense (which ranked 86th overall in 2009) can stop a surging Denard Robinson and company.
Though the Irish “D” looked better vs. Purdue and gave up only 322 total yards (as opposed to an average of 400 yards per game in 2009) it will be interesting to see if they are up to stopping a Michigan attack that seems primed for another outstanding performance.
Also of note, the Wolverines ranked 115th in turnover margin in 2009 (-12). Against UConn they had zero turnovers and only one penalty for 13 yards. These stats do not mirror the performance of the 2009 Michigan team who struggled in both areas.
Saturday may prove which one of these teams is for real in 2010.
2. NC State Over Central Florida
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UCF and NC State have only met once before when the Knights knocked off the Wolfpack 25-23 in Raleigh.
2010’s match-up in Orlando is interesting as it features the defensively strong Knights vs. the Wolfpack offense led by QB Russell Wilson.
Both teams easily knocked off their week one FCS opponents: NC State beat the Western Carolina Catamounts 48-7 while UCF was victorious over the South Dakota Coyotes 38 -7.
The ACC is 37-16 vs.Conference USA and 31-12 in the past decade.
The Bottom Line
Though UCF has a two and a half point advantage going into the game you have to assume that both teams have a reasonable chance to win the contest.
UCF has a great defense and ranked No. 4 nationally last year in rushing defense. That said, NC State’s strength is definitely its passing attack which ranked 24th in 2009 vs.a Knight defense that ranked 113th defending the pass.
This mismatch may make the difference in Orlando. A lingering concern (especially in a close game) for the Wolfpack faithful has to be NC State’s tendency to turn over the ball and UCF’s inclination to protect it.
1. Georgia Over South Carolina
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Stunningly, the odds makers have the Bulldogs a two and a half point underdog to the Gamecocks going into their 55th meeting this Saturday in Columbia.
The Bulldogs who lead the all-time series 42–13, are 18-6 against the Gamecocks in Columbia and are 7-3 vs. South Carolina since 2000 (which is also the last time the Bulldogs lost in Columbia).
That said you have to figure that this one will be close as the last three games were decided by a grand total of 15 points.
Both teams played well in their opener with Georgia humbling the Sun Belt’s Louisiana-Lafayette 55 -7 and the Gamecocks easily handling Southern Miss 41-13.
Both teams have solid defensive units (despite preseason talk of the Gamecocks fielding a weak defensive unit) and performed well offensively in their respective openers (though South Carolina played the better opponent).
The Bottom Line
Regardless of whether Georgia WR AJ Green is cleared to play or not the Bulldogs offense may be too much for the Gamecocks to handle.
Southern Miss racked up 337 yards on South Carolina in the opener with the Gamecocks defense registering only one sack and one interception.
The Bulldog defense looked promising in its debut under new coordinator Todd Grantham and held the Rajin’ Cajuns to just 128 yards total offense in their week one match-up.
This should be a close game which may come down to the kicking game where again the Bulldogs have a clear advantage.
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