NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: 5 Reasons Kansas Will Win a Championship
The Kansas Jayhawks made it to the Sweet 16. Although unsurprising, it is more than they could do last season as the overall No. 1 seed losing a devastating second-round game to a scrappy Northern Iowa team. People have pegged Kansas as a contender for the national title from the beginning of the season as they were ranked seventh in the preseason.
Kansas has only helped to build a case as a contender this season, finishing with an impressive 32-2 record including a 14-2 big 12 record, and both regular season and conference tournament titles.
Now that the field is down to just 16 teams, it's time to start examining which teams are just lucky to be there, and which ones can actually make deep tournament runs. No one would argue that Kansas is capable of making a deep run; the question is whether or not they will.
If you are going to bet on one team at this point, it has to be Kansas for a variety of different reasons.
5. The Jayhawks Have an Excellent Coach
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Anybody will tell you that Bill Self is one of the best coaches in the game today. Self has won three Big 12 coach of the year awards and has been extremely successful over the years. While his teams have experienced early exits in the past, he does have a championship ring, and he has experience late in March, which will prove valuable as the Jayhawks get deeper into the tournament.
Self has taken three different teams to the Elite Eight which is no small task. He has seen success throughout his career, and he is always in the conversation when discussing the best coaches in the game today.
When it gets to this point in the season, most teams remaining have excellent coaches, but Self has proved he is one of the best. Self may not be Mike Krzyzewski, but he is a great coach and will give Kansas the edge in most cases.
4. KU's Starting 5 Is One of the Best College Basketball Has to Offer
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Kansas has a solid roster up and down, but their starting five is undoubtedly one of the best in the country. With Tyrel Reed, Tyshawn Taylor and Brady Morningstar in the backcourt alongside the talented Morris brothers in the forward spots, they form a dynamic group.
Morningstar is a pesky defender and a solid spot up shooter, making 41 percent of his attempts from behind the arc this season, second best on the squad. He is a senior this year and has plenty of tournament experience. He is a solid role player, and while he may not be the best player on the team, you know you're good when he is your seventh option.
Point guard Tyshawn Taylor has really stepped into the spotlight with the graduation of Sherron Collins last season. He has taken over point guard duties for the Jayhawks, and while he is valuable off ball, he has done an adequate job at the point this season. He isn't Collins, but he can still run the offense. When KU is on the break, any of their three guards are capable of speeding the ball up the floor which makes them versatile. There are so many different ways they can start the break. Kansas can out score just about any team in an up tempo game.
Tyrel Reed has been a good role player for the Jayhawks this season and is vital to the team because of his expertise. Reed can certainly score if necessary, but he leads the team in steals as he is a great defender, and he is also the team's best free throw shooter at 80 percent. He is key to the Jayhawks as someone they can trust with the ball at the end of the game, as well as a versatile scorer and defender.
Everyone already knows about the dominance of the Morris twins. They have been wrecking the Big 12 all year long, and they are among the best if not the best front court tandem in the league. I will touch more on the talent of the Morris twins later.
The level of statistical domination achieved by this group is extremely impressive. To understand the full extent of Kansas' domination we must look at the evidence the numbers provide.
Kansas was fifth of all division one schools in offensive efficiency as well as ninth defensively. They were first in field goal percentage, and shot a devastating 57.4 percent from inside the arc—1.5 percent better than the No. 2 team and 3 percent higher than the next major conference team.
They won the battle of the boards, finishing 40th in offensive rebounding and 12th in offensive rebounds allowed. The only thing they aren't good at is free throw shooting where they rank 203rd. This kind of statistical domination is a signal of a well-rounded team, definitely capable of playing deep in March.
3. Kansas Has Great Depth
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When examining the deepest teams in college basketball today, Kansas is definitely up there. Kansas can throw so many different combinations of players on the floor that they are ready for any situation. The fact that they have so many options makes them extremely versatile and even harder to defend.
The most important factor when looking at the depth of the Jayhawks is the fact that an injury would not prohibit them from ultimately winning the national championship. Would an injury to either of the Morris brothers seriously damage their chances, of course; however, it wouldn't completely take them out of contention. Thomas Robinson is possibly the best front court player to come off the bench in college basketball. He could be a star on most other teams, but because of the Morris brothers he hasn't been given a chance to shine in Kansas. Yet.
When you look at Kansas' bench, you see more than just a few capable back ups. Josh Selby is a supremely talented freshman who has had his ups and down this season, but he is still ridiculously talented and can pull off a big play at any moment. He was a starter at one point, but he has taken on more of a sixth man role of sorts and has big play ability off the bench.
I have already touched on the talented Thomas Robinson. Robinson averaged fairly pedestrian numbers—eight points and six rebounds a game. The reason why Robinson is so good is that these numbers were accomplished in just 15 minutes a game, while shooting 60 percent from the field. The unbelievably efficient Robinson is much better than his numbers may suggest and allows Kansas to feel confident giving the Morris brothers a rest.
Other useful subs include Elijah Johnson and Mario Little who don't necessarily get a ton of playing time (almost 15 minutes a game), but they can still be effective is spurts and are good injury insurance in case one of Kansas' star players suffer an injury down the stretch.
Marcus Morris leads the Jayhawks in minutes with just 28 minutes a game, and nine players average 14 minutes a game or more. Balance is key for this year's Kansas team.
Kansas has two types of depth. As shown above, they have many good players who can fill in when called upon. The second type, as you can probably tell, is the high quality of the depth they have. Put Kansas' best five players on the bench as a starting five in a major conference and chances are they would make the tournament. It would be close, but the talent Kansas has on the bench is unmatched by any team in college basketball today—it isn't even close.
When compared to elite teams like Ohio St and Duke that still remain in the tournament, Kansas has by far the best bench, as well as the deepest. This is a big reason why they have the best chance to win the national championship.
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2. They Have an Easy Road
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Out of every team remaining in the tournament Kansas has by far the easiest road. Many people would argue that Kansas is the most talented team in the country. Pair that with the teams Kansas has to go through and you have a team that could possibly see their first single digit difference in the final four.
The best team they will run into on their way to the final four is probably the Richmond Spiders. Richmond is extremely hot as of late, winning nine games in a row. Kevin Anderson is an extremely talented scoring guard, and forward Justin Harper is a great face up big man, and can create big matchup problems for opposing defenses as he can both score inside and hit the three. The Spiders are just a 12 seed, but between their talent, and their streak they are probably the most likely to stop the Jayhawks quest for a final four appearance.
VCU and Florida State are both clearly solid teams. VCU has put together a great run crushing both Georgetown and Purdue, while Florida State has beat a respectable Texas A&M team, and absolutely destroyed two seed Notre Dame. Florida State is excellent defensively and creates problems for teams offensively. The problem is, they can't score themselves. They are 154th in the nation in points per game.
While Kansas' road to the final four won't be easy, they have the easiest road of all the one seeds by far. For example, Ohio State still has games against Kentucky and potentially North Carolina. Both are in the Top 25. The craziest stat of this situation is that Kansas has already played the highest seeded team it will need to beat to get to the final four, nine seed Illinois.
Kansas will not have to play any teams that were even favored to win their first round game in order to reach the final four which is a big reason why their chances are so great. Kansas has already had their toughest test seeding wise. This makes them a great bet to get to the final four. Pittsburgh would have been KU's final four opponent if the one seeds had made it, but they were eliminated by Butler. Kansas would not need to play another No. 1 seed until the national championship. This is yet another reason to bet on the Jayhawks.
1. The Morris Twins Are Unstoppable
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These twin brothers have been on the college scene for three years now. Marcus has been a strong contributor for Kansas in each of his three years whereas Markieff has just blossomed this season.
The brothers complement each other well. Marcus is definitely more of a scorer. He is very polished and has a great set of moves that allows him to dominate opposing big men on the low block. He averaged 17 points and 7.5 rebounds a game this season in just 28 minutes.
Markieff is a different type of player than Marcus. He is more of a defensive player and is an extremely good rebounder and shot blocker. He is a raw offensive player, but he did average 14 points a game while gathering just over eight boards. So he scored more than three points a game less than Marcus, he did grab one more rebound. Markieff played in just 24 minutes a game, making his good numbers seem even more impressive.
What makes the Morris twins more attractive still is that they don't foul. Both Marcus and Markieff average less than three fouls a game and can control themselves quite effectively. Kansas will be leaning on them heavily as they go deeper into the tournament and because they can be trusted to stay on the floor; Kansas looks like a consistent team.
Kansas has a huge advantage over the field with the best tandem of big men. A team like Ohio State may have one big man (Jared Sullinger) that may be better than either of them individually, but Dallas Lauterdale is nowhere near either of the twins. Overall, they are better. With the best front court of any remaining team, Kansas will win the national championship.
Conclusion
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In the end, Kansas is simply the most talented team remaining with the easiest draw. If you are going to put your money on one team, put it on Kansas.
They have balance throughout their lineup and have the look of a championship team. The classic mix of youth and experience will work in their favor, and their inside out game makes them impossible to stop.
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