Inflation Nation: Despite High Ranking, Boise State Just Isn't BCS

With 20 returning starters, including one of the nation’s top QB's, Heisman candidate Kellen Moore, Boise St. rests peacefully near the top of most pre-season college football polls. Given last season’s undefeated record (14-0) and the squad’s wealth of experience, many analysts, professional and armchair alike, argue that the Broncos could be the first non-BCS school to vie for a national championship. But should they? The answer is simple: BSU just isn’t BCS.

Boise St. is the nation’s strongest mid-major (followed closely by TCU). Most would concur. And yes, BSU is 39-1 the past three seasons. Championship numbers for sure, right? On the surface, absolutely. Consider, though, that the Broncos are sub-.500 against BCS teams since 2002. Beyond the trick play-filled 2007 Fiesta Bowl win against Oklahoma, where are the other “major” victories? Chew on that for a while.

If you’re not yet convinced, compare the October schedules of Boise St. (No. 3 in the AP) and Florida (No. 4). BSU plays New Mexico St. on the road, Toledo, at San Jose St., and Louisiana Tech. Florida’s October begins at Alabama, followed by home games against LSU and Mississippi State, and concludes with Georgia in Jacksonville. Florida should go 3-1, perhaps 4-0 if they can upset mighty Alabama. With Florida’s schedule, Boise St. would likely finish 1-3 (lone victory: Mississippi St.), 2-2 at best if LSU once again underachieves. Conversely, any reasonably talented BCS program would rip through BSU's October at 4-0.

In the end, the point is this: If Boise St. was in a BCS conference, no one would be talking national championship. In fact, the Boys in Blue would fail to finish atop the SEC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 or ACC. Face it, the Brocs’ record each season is inflated, and pollsters, especially, are confusing wins with quality wins. For the sake of the BCS, leave the big games to the big boys, and the Nevadas and Wyomings to Boise St.