2010 College Football Predictions: Week 1 Spreads For The AP's Top 25
With the beginning of the 2010 college football upon us at last, this can only mean one thing to that gambling child lurking within each and every sports fan…the best game to bet on is finally back to test that unmatched knowledge, those unwavering gut feelings, and most importantly, that untapped bank roll.
Besides the NFL, College Football’s Top 25 are the most sought after spreads in the gambling business. The ability to consistently pick winners week in and week out is something that football fans with that sports book itch would give their right arm to do.
While it will hardly be an easy task, this season I will try to finish above 60-percent through this Bleacher Report weekly pick ‘em article, mainly selecting spreads from the Top 25 teams but also adding pertinent games of the week to keep the masses interested.
Since the first week of college football tends to pit several Top 25 teams against squads that are not worthy enough for Vegas to write lines, several of the ranked teams will not appear on this week’s list.
Let’s take a look at this week’s spreads and see if we can emerge out of week one ahead of the curve.
No. 1 Alabama (-39.5) Vs. San Jose State
1 of 20
Mark Ingram might be out for the season opener but back-up running back Trent Richardson is hardly a slouch. Last season, Richardson carried the ball 145 times, collected 751 yards, and scored eight touchdowns.
Oh yeah, they also have a quarterback that has not lost since he was in middle school.
The one stat that makes me believe that Alabama will cover this enormous line is that the reigning National Champion is 6-1 against the spread in their first game back the following season over the past seven years. The Tide should roll, but 40 points could be a nail-biter.
Pick: Alabama -39.5
No. 2 Ohio State (-28.5) Vs. Marshall
2 of 20
Last year in September, Ohio State covered all three spreads to start of the season. Somewhat intriguing, but they also went a horrid 0-6 in the first month of play prior to this current streak.
The Thundering Herd will certainly be overmatched in this game and the Buckeyes should not take their foot off of the accelerator until very late into the fourth.
Ohio State’s maturity on offense and an overly stout defense should mean that the Buckeyes will have no problem beating Marshall by more the four touchdowns.
Pick: Ohio State -28.5
No. 3 Boise State (-2.5) @ No. 10 Virginia Tech
3 of 20
In one of the hardest lines to pick in Week One, the consistent BCS-crasher takes on the perennial ACC contender in a game that could deflate both of these teams’ championship dreams right out of the gates.
Boise State is certainly the fan favorite heading into the season but Virginia Tech is a beast that could squash any BCS hopes for the Broncos early.
This game is really a coin toss, but if Kellen Moore can come out of the tunnel firing, Boise State could jump off to another great start in 2010. Plus, Boise State has covered five straight spreads in September and that could be a great streak to ride.
Pick: Boise State -2.5
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No. 4 Florida (-35.5) Vs. Miami (OH)
4 of 20
Since 2005, Florida is undefeated against the spread (7-0-1) in non-SEC games where they are favored by more than 20 points—not too shabby
In all games over the past five years where their line reaches 30 or above, the Gators are 3-1, only failing to cover the spread against Vanderbilt last year.
This sounds like a pretty safe bet for Florida, even with the induction of a new era at quarterback.
Pick: Florida -35.5
No. 5 Texas (-29) Vs. Rice
5 of 20
In this somewhat yearly matchup between the Texas Longhorns and the Rice Owls, the outcome has been more one-sided than a conversation with Skip Bayless.
The Longhorns have consistently man-handled Rice, posting a 6-0 record since 2003 and covering five of the spreads in that span with each line surpassing the 28-point mark.
Texas has scored 50 or more points the past four meetings between these teams and a 29-point spread is more than doable for this rambunctious squad.
Pick: Texas -29
No. 6 TCU Vs. No. 24 Oregon State
6 of 20
The first ever meeting between TCU and Oregon State should be a doozy.
One team is trying to gain respect amongst BCS schools and the other just wants a little respect in their own conference.
The Beavers are not exactly known for starting off the season strong, tallying a 9-11 record in the month of September since 2004 and putting up a nerve racking 3-13-1 record against the spread during those games.
The Horned Frogs, on the other hand,has rocked the opening month of play with a 15-5 record since 2005 and an even more impressive 14-6 record against the spread.
While these stats certainly appear to be in TCU’s favor, the money seems to moving towards the Beavers. This is definitely one of the tougher picks of the week, but there is something about Oregon State that makes me believe they will keep this one close.
Pick: Oregon State +13
No. 7 Oklahoma (-34) Vs. Utah State
7 of 20
While Oklahoma’s record against the spread in games with lines above 30 is a little shaky (3-4), their last match-up against Utah State has to add some confidence into the back pocket of the gambling nation.
In 2007, the Sooners trounced the Aggies, 54-3, in a game that was practically over by the end of the first quarter.
Oklahoma should be able to have a repeat performance against Utah State to open their 2010 season.
Pick: Oklahoma -34
No. 8 Nebraska (-37.5) Vs. Western Kentucky
8 of 20
Over the past five years, Nebraska has only been favored by more than 30 points only one time, but boy did they live up to the billing. In a 55-0 shellacking of the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajun, Zac Lee threw for 238 yards and a touchdown and Roy Helu Junior rushed for 83 yards and two scores.
This pairing could do more of the same in this year's matchup and when adding their stifling defense, this game could get ugly fast.
As a disclaimer though, the Cornhuskers are 5-7 in spreads where they are favored by 15-points or more the past five season. This might raise concerns for some, but not this guy—well, not really.
Pick: Nebraska -37.5
No. 11 Oregon (-34) Vs. New Mexico
9 of 20
Sophomore quarterback Darron Thomas was tapped as the Week One starter by Oregon Coach Chip Thomas after a heated battle between the prodigy and senior quarterback Nate Costa in the spring. The selection should help solidify this offense, but concerns on how the young passer tackles his first start should make this spread slightly daunting.
Another concern has to be the absence of LaMichael James.
While this offense should still be able to put up a decent amount of points, covering a five-touchdown spread might be a little too much to ask of the Ducks without their number one running back and with a fresh faced quarterback.
Pick: New Mexico +34
No. 12 Wisconsin (-21) @ UNLV
10 of 20
The Wisconsin Badgers have faced the UNLV rebels four times since 2002 and have only covered the spread once.
The last meeting was in Las Vegas three years ago, where the Badgers sheepishly snuck away with a seven-point victory.
While Wisconsin will most definitely be the better team taking the field, this type of mojo in the City of Sin has to make you think twice about laying the points on the Badgers this weekend.
Pick: UNLV +21
No. 14 USC (-21.5) @ Hawaii
11 of 20
USC and Hawaii face off for the fifth time as Division I schools and the Trojans have dominated this matchup whole heartedly.
In the past three games against the Warriors, USC has averaged 62 points, while only allowing an average of 18.6 points.
Even with the loss of a few upperclassman and scholarships due to NCAA’s outlandish sanctions, the Trojans should be able to keep up the trend of burying the Warriors. A 21.5-point spread actually seems a little low.
Pick: USC -21.5
No. 15 Pittsburgh @ Utah (-3)
12 of 20
Utah receives the obligatory three-point favorite line as the home team in this otherwise dead even matchup.
In this rematch of the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, the Utes look to open their final season in the Mountain West by knocking off one of two ranked teams that they will most likely face this season.
Pittsburgh won’t lie down lightly, though, and this game should definitely live up to its primetime billing.
The Panthers tendency to keep the ball on the ground could keep Utah’s explosive offense off of the field for long periods of time. This could play well into the hands of Pitt and might be the variable that tips this game their way.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3
No. 18 North Carolina (PK) Vs. No. 21 LSU
13 of 20
In another fairly even matchup, North Carolina and LSU battle to remain as a ranked team going into the second week of play.
LSU is not quite the program it was a few years ago when they won a national championship, but they still have enough talent to be dangerous.
UNC is trying to get rid of their reputation as the ACC whipping boy and are quickly making strides in the right direction with a much improved offense and a shutdown defense.
However, something will have to give.
Les Miles will have a little bit more to prove this year and might have his boys slightly more prepared for this tough first week challenge. It’s a tough pick, but one team has to lose. Also, with possible UNC suspension being handed down before kickoff, this game could definitely tilt in the Tigers direction.
Pick: LSU
No. 22 Auburn (-31) Vs. Arkansas State
14 of 20
Auburn is a team that will have an excellent chance of surprising the SEC this year. But are they capable of opening up the season with a 30-point whopping of lowly Arkansas State?
It could happen, but it might be a bit too much to ask of a team fine tuning their product.
The last time the Tigers squared off against Arkansas State they won 27-0, but failed to cover the 34-point spread listed by Vegas’ odd makers. Don’t be surprised if this in ability to cover happens again this time around.
Pick: Arkansas State +31
No. 23 Georgia (-28) Vs. LA-Lafayette
15 of 20
Over the past five years, the Georgia Bulldogs have not been a confident gamble when they are 10- or more point favorites.
While they have only lost two games straight up in these games, their against the spread tally is a miserable 5-14. If this doesn’t scream bet the other way, I don’t really know what does.
Georgia will definitely win, but most likely come short of the four touchdown line.
Pick: LA-Lafayette +28
Missouri (-11.5) Vs. Illinois
16 of 20
This yearly matchup between Illinois and Missouri has been a huge problem for the Illini’s head coach Ron Zook. Since taking over the program, he has failed to keep the Tigers from scoring less than 30 points and has collected a 0-3 record in the process.
With Illinois expected to hang around the Big Ten cellar for another season and Missouri looking to contend for the Big 12 north, this game could be another barn burner blowout where the Tigers prove to be the better squad.
A two touchdown victory by Missouri is hardly out of the question.
Pick: Missouri -11.5
Notre Dame (-11) Vs. Purdue
17 of 20
The Brian Kelley Era officially begins against a Purdue squad that, just like the Irish, is still trying to find their true identity.
Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, this easy-to-pick-on Notre Dame team has just enough talent to be the better team on the field in this first game of the season. However, an 11-point spread could be slightly out of the range for the Irish, especially when they are still getting used to this new type of offense.
While the Irish should start off this new era on the right foot, gamblers may want to remember the 4-8 against the spread record that Notre Dame posted in 2009.
Pick: Purdue +11
Michigan (-3) Vs. Connecticut
18 of 20
Michigan has had troubles in opening games the past several years, most notably their colossal meltdown against Appalachian State.
The bad news for the Wolverines is that their first week opponent comes in the form of a team that came just short of making the AP Top 25 to start off this season.
UCONN has won seven straight season openers and more impressively, hold a 14-5-1 against the spread record in September since 2005. This could mean even more unwanted news for Rich Rodriguez and Michigan.
With the bad karma floating around Ann Arbor and the fact that the Huskies might actually be a better team than the Wolverines, it will be hard for even the biggest Go Blue fan to lay the points on Michigan this weekend.
Pick: Connecticut +3
Arizona (-14) @ Toledo
19 of 20
While hardly a pertinent game for most college football fans, a Friday night tilt on ESPN should grab the attention of this football starved nation.
Arizona has the potential to be a lot better than people think and, with the rocket arm of Nick Foles leading them, they should be able to start off the season with an extremely loud bang.
The Wildcats have won six of their past eight season openers and while they have not exactly covered the spread in all of these games, their chances of lighting up the scoreboard on a particularly weak Toledo secondary are pretty high.
Expect Arizona to start 2010 off right and completely erase the terrible memories of last year’s Holiday Bowl.
Pick: Arizona -14
BYU (-3) Vs. Washington
20 of 20
Jake Locker turned down potential millions in NFL dollars to get another chance at playing a bowl game in college. While Locker will be a force to be reckoned with for the entire season, BYU knows a thing or two about silencing BCS teams in season openers.
Last season, BYU stunned the nation when, as 23-point underdogs, they took down the high and mighty Oklahoma Sooners.
While they enter this season’s opening game as the favored, don’t expect BYU to take for granted the talent that is being presented on the other side of the ball.
The Cougars should be able to handle this first test and slowly take the steps to proving to the world that their leap to becoming a football Independent was warranted.
Pick: BYU -3
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