Red River Rivalry: How the Oklahoma Sooners Match Up vs. Texas Longhorns

So I was reading Nickel Rover’s very solid piece going across the positions comparing and I was inspired (Ripley commanded me) to write up a response piece.  I thought about going across the Big 12, but that’s for a later date.  So, here’s my take on how the Red River rivals match up across positions.

QB:  OU

Nickel seems to think that two good drives against Alabama mean that Garrett Gilbert is the superior option.  I think that a guy who threw two TD’s and three INT’s the same way, to his first read, is a guy who’s going to look like a slightly above average redshirt freshman this year.  He’ll be decent, not great, and he’s going to get his world rocked more than once.   A QB’s biggest improvement is from year one to year two.  And playing 3/4ths of one game, no matter who it’s against, isn’t the same as starting 10 games during an entire season.

Further, I don’t believe there’s a better QB coach in the Big 12 than Josh Heupel. Heupel’s signature is developing the most important part of the game for QB’s: the part between the ears.  For example, Bradford was a good, but raw, athlete coming in to OU. By the time he left, he was a legend for his accuracy and his decision making.  For those of you who’ve forgot, those two characteristics were the hallmarks of Heupel’s run to the 2000 title.  Landry Jones isn’t the next Heupel or Bradford, but he could be better than Jason White.  He’s got more talent than White, and he’s got a better scheme to work in.  

Gilbert’s going to be the better QB in 2011 and after, don’t get me wrong.  He’s more talented.  But he needs time.  As for the starters, I’d call it even, or OU ahead negligibly, until I see some of the hype on Jones’ offseason be backed up by play on the field.  So why do I give OU the definitive edge?   If OU loses Jones, we’re hurting but not dead.  Drew Allen is a 6’5″ 232 lb redshirt freshman whose learned the BYU lesson, and he’s putting in starter’s effort as a backup.  He’ll be at least serviceable.  But if UT loses Gilbert, they’re 31 flavors of hosed as their backup options are true freshmen who are nowhere near game ready.

As a side note, if by some miracle, we actually get Archie Bradley on campus, you’re looking at OU’s sixth Heisman winning QB.  The kid has that kind of leadership and athletic ability.  He also has a 94 mph fastball, and he’s projected presently as a top 15 draft pick for MLB.  So, yeah, he’s not coming.

To answer Nickel’s question “Could Landry Jones do what Garrett Gilbert can do?”  Yes. Landry Jones can throw an inordinate number of INTs against a top D, rely on his defense for field position, have no ability to look anywhere but his first read, and be dependent on his one good WR.  Gilbert is a raw, unfinished product.  We have no idea what he is truly capable of.  This is where Nickel and I differ.  He sees raw talent and is willing to gamble on it.  I look for production on the field and consider upside a distant second.

RB:  Ha Ha Ha Ha!

Not even kind of close.  Even with Roy Finch being hurt, we’ve got no less than three guys who are legitimate home run threats in Murray, Calhoun, and Brennan Clay.  Madu is the definition of a No. 2 RB.  Flexible enough to do what’s needed from him in this system, always going to hold on to the ball, not good enough to steal carries.  Calhoun would have the No. 2 job on lockdown, but he still hasn’t gotten his fumblitis under control.  Meanwhile, UT’s best hope is Cody Johnson.  Well, he’s not a danger to break a 60 yarder on you, nor is he any real threat out of the backfield.  Basically, he’s a quick fullback.  And he’ll help UT mitigate its looming weakness at the tackle positions. Imagine if OU was starting Trey Millard in place of DeMarco Murray.  That’s what UT has right now.

Speaking of FB, Millard seems to have a lock on the starting job.  This is a guy who long jumped 18’2″ as a 240 lb high school senior having only done track for one year, so he’s got some wheels.  He’s picked up the blocking schemes pretty quickly (inside out, inside out, inside out).  Here’s hoping he’s everything Stoops has said he is.

WR/TE:  OU

Two reasons.  First, Ryan Broyles >>> any WR on UT’s roster.  There is no substitute for a No. 1 WR that must be accounted for like a Texas player leaving sixth Street at 2am with car keys in hand.  Muschamp’s game plan will start with locking down Broyles.  Every other DC in the conference will do the same.  Do not underestimate the ways this will open up the field.  Second, I have never been impressed by the player development on the offensive side of the ball at UT.  Players leave with what they came in with, and nothing more.  This is in contrast to the defensive players in Austin, especially of late.  

OU’s corps of WR’s 2-5 is just as good as UT’s 1-4.  Good players, one of whom has the ability to be great but has just been adequate to date (Malcolm Williams and DeJuan Miller).  If you’re discounting Kenny Stills, consider this.  When Adrian Peterson came to OU, even he didn’t get this kind of deference early.  Of course, Stills came in for spring football and summer conditioning.  What’s more is that his maturity is light years beyond his age.  Stoops doesn’t let true freshman who haven’t played a down talk to the media…but he’s let Stills talk to the press, and Stills has acquitted himself incredibly well.

As for TE, Barrett Matthews is yet another unknown quantity.  Of course, I’d rather have that unknown than Trent Ratterree and James Hanna.  Hanna’s inconsistent and unfocused as a receiver, Ratterree just doesn’t have the physical tools. Austin Haywood is the real hope here.  Wilson has already said Haywood’s the best receiving TE on the roster already.  Basically, both teams are tying their hopes to youth at this position.

OL:  Even

On the one hand, assuming the players stay mostly healthy, OU wins this by a respectable margin.  However, that is a distinctly dangerous assumption as history has proven to date.  So OU takes a hit in my book for that reason.

Tyler Evans is a big road grader type (6’5″ 330), but he’s built for the right side of the line.  He got on the field his true freshman year last year BEFORE the injuries, so he’s legit.  Stephen Good is a monstrously powerful player, benching 480 and squat pressing 625.  It shows when he’s second in knockdowns only to Trent Williams.  Ben Habern is extremely smart, which is a must for an OU center, but he’s also on the fritz from time to time….also seemingly a must for an OU center.  

Presuming health, I think this is a better unit than what UT fields.  Huey doesn’t have the ability to manhandle people like Good can, Snow isn’t Habern’s match at C, but the combo of Mason Walters and Tray Allen (or either) provides about the same effect as Evans.  If Good stays healthy, he’s the kind of player who can put Kheeston Randall on his ass, and that’s no small thing.

At the edge, coaches have been raving about Donald Stephenson’s talent for over a year.  Which is great, except he hasn’t played a down.  Eric Mensik acquitted himself shockingly well as a right tackle last year after moving from being a blocking TE, and he’s put on some good weight to make the move permanent.   Kyle Hix is a proven commodity, and here you will again see the difference in how Nickel and I approach this analysis.  Hix may have a limited ceiling, but I don’t give a damn what he’ll become eventually.  What is he right now?  What will he be for 2010?   Right now, that would be the most proven and reliable T of the two teams.  Britt Mitchell is a good player for OU to have at RT, as it is a likelihood he will get Gilbert brutalized more than once.

DL: Texas

Let’s play personnel MAD LIBS!!!

_____ has an outstanding DE talent in ______ , a player who is good as a pass rusher with a solid power rush, but who is more adept at crushing the offtackle and sweep rushes.  _______ is complimented on the other side of the line by _____ a fast but physically gifted athlete who needs to prove he can take his game to the next level with more consistency.  On the interior, the star is ________, but the depth at the position relies heavily on true freshmen after the first three players.

Aside from Adrian Taylor’s rehab, which is behind the hoped schedule, it’s terrifying how similar these starting groups are.  As Nickel rightly points out, Jeffcoat and Wilson would be adequate if they had to start tomorrow.  Though Geneo Grissom surprised OU coaches by checking in at 7.3 percent body fat, which is insane for a true freshman checking in for the first time, and playing at an advanced level, he’s not needed.  Nickel overlooks RJ Washington, who is easily the equal of Jeffcoat and Wilson in raw talent.  If Washington actually commits with some maturity (not a given based on his past offseason work), he can pull OU to even.  Until then, I give the nod to Texas.

LB: OU

Again, a slight nod.  Tom Wort is the wild card here.  Like Gayron Allen in 2004, he’s fast, smart, and extremely effective in the system.  He’s also light, and Allen got manhandled by USC in ’04.  I expect that the Texas RB’s will drop at least one easy flat pass after seeing one of their friends get knocked silly by the Hammer, Ronnell Lewis. Travis Lewis is the best LB of the group, bar none.   I think Emmanuel Acho is going to be an All Big 12 player, and Keenan Robinson can be special, but OU is simply a bit better.

CB:  Texas

Yikes.  Demontre Hurst is going to be great in coverage, but he’s also going to give up a huge size advantage to guys like Jeff Fuller and Malcolm Williams.  I think our best option in obvious passing situations is to line up Hurst on the slot man, put Jonathan Nelson out at field corner, leave Fleming on the boundary, and have Tony Jefferson and Quentin Carter over the top. Fleming is a top-flight athlete from all accounts, but running and jumping isn’t all it takes to be a great

Now, compare that to Chykie and Curtis Brown and Aaron Williams.  Exactly.

S: OU

Nickel doesn’t think there’s anyone pushing for time like Vaccaro as a fifth DB.  This is the only time Nickel says something utterly and completely without merit.  Considering he’s a diehard UT fan trying to be somewhat objective about OU, we’ll let it slide.

The name he was looking for Tony Jefferson.  In comparison to Vaccaro (and the rest of the UT safeties), he’s a superior athlete.  Fast enough to stay with anyone, physical enough to not be outmuscled, Jefferson, like Stills, got on campus early and it paid off huge.  He’s already humped the starting Nickel position into submission, and the coaches have created a 3-4 look just to get Jefferson and Ronnell Lewis on the field at the same time.  The only reason he’s not starting at FS or SS is because the options there are absolutely outstanding.  Nelson is essentially a CB playing safety and Quentin Carter is the enforcer of the secondary who’s good enough in coverage to not be a liability.  I like that pairing better than Gideon and Christian Scott.

Special Teams: Texas

Oy-vay.  We just had open tryouts for kickers.  Jeebus.  Our kickoff specialist is gone as an academic casualty.  Unless our offense is the shit, this is going to cost us a game or two again. Our kick return team is good, if not spectacular.  Kick it to Madu and he’ll get about 20-25 yards while not being a threat to go the distance.

That said, our punt and punt return teams are outstanding.  Tress Way may win back the games our kickers try to lose.  Way can change the field with his punting.  Broyles returning punts is a nightmare for opposing coverage teams, but it’s a hell of a gamble with your best offensive weapon.

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