Virginia Tech vs. Boise State: The Overlooked Keys to Victory

There have been plenty of articles written about the “Allstate Kickoff in the Capital” and even more comments about it.

We get it. 

Boise State is returning 21 starters from a team that beat two BCS bowl teams but was unimpressive during conference play.

Virginia Tech has arguably the most talented backfield in the country but lacks some game experience and depth on defense.

We’ve heard every reason in the book on both sides predicting the outcome of the game, from statistics to the location of the game to sheer ridiculousness.

This is not that article.

Although football is not an exact science, there are some telling statistics that will likely decide who wins and loses this game. For those of you unfamiliar with both programs, you may not have even heard of these guys but their impact will be extraordinary.

We’ll start with Boise State.

Jeremy Avery – RB BSU – Yards per Carry

Everyone talks about Kellen Moore and the passing attack of the Broncos but tend to forget that they also have a trio of solid running backs in Avery, Doug Martin and D.J. Harper. With the spotlight on the pass, Virginia Tech may be unprepared and give up a sizable chunk of yards to the run, an area which was weak early last season.

I picked Avery because he is the likely starter with Martin used more in the red zone and Harper in as backup. The Hokies’ red zone defense is always stout and should not be an issue (see the Nebraska game).  But if Avery can consistently put the Broncos in third and short situations, it does not bode well for Virginia Tech.

During their games against Oregon and TCU, Boise went and impressive 10 of 20 and 6 of 18 on third downs respectively. 

Virginia Tech needs to force as many punts to keep the Broncos’ explosive offense in check.

What Boise State wants – 5.1 ypc

This means one and/or two things. 

First, Avery is getting consistent penetration on the relatively inexperienced defensive line and force the Hokies to dedicate more time to the run. This will leave the dangerous duo of Titus Young and Austin Pettis in single coverage and we have seen enough highlight reels to know that they can put Virginia Tech in a world of trouble.

The other option is that Avery broke off at least one big run (25-plus yards). I think it is reasonable to expect the Broncos to have a couple of big plays through the air but Bud Foster and the Hokie faithful will be furious if Avery breaks a couple of tackles for a 60 yard touchdown.

What Virginia Tech wants – 2.8 ypc

Virginia Tech needs to make the Broncos a one dimensional team, even if that dimension is what they are best at. The Hokie secondary is the strong point of the defense but it is simply unreasonable to expect them to completely shut down Kellen Moore.

If the Hokies are able to stuff the line and force Kellen Moore into third and long, more often than not a punt will immediately follow. Both Oregon and TCU held Avery to under three ypc and I think holding the Broncos to under 20 points should be considered a win by Bud Foster.

Now for Virginia Tech

Dyrell Roberts – WR VT – Plays from scrimmage of seven-plus yards

It sounds ambiguous but Roberts is an all-purpose player and ranks as one of the top returning kick returners in the country. I didn’t include anything about his abilities on special teams because the more he touches the ball, the more the Broncos have put up on the scoreboard.

Roberts provides a unique spark to the team and has played big in the big games as well as break end-arounds for solid gains. The Hokies have a severely underrated receiving corps but the focus of standout cornerback Jeron Johnson and the secondary will likely be Jarrett “Big Play” Boykin.

Both Roberts and Danny Coale should see a fair amount of single coverage and are both sure handed receivers. I went with Roberts over Coale because of his ability to make the likes of Eric Berry look stupid (3:35-4:10).

What Boise State wants – two plays

It means that the Broncos have played solid defense from one side of the field to the other. This won’t mean much if Boykin and/or Coale have monster games, but the likely target for passes between five to 15 yards is Roberts.

If Boise can keep the wide receivers in check, they should be able to keep the Hokies’ drives short and force punts or field goals, both of whom have no game experience. The Broncos forced Oregon and TCU to go one for 10 and one for 12 respectively on third down.

If Tyrod Taylor has to throw deep routes every play to keep the Hokies in the game, history is with the Broncos.

What Virginia Tech wants – six plays

Roberts is sure-handed and can make plays in open space. The more they can get the ball to Roberts for 5 to 10 yard gains the better since Frank Beamer’s style of play is to control the time of possession.

If I were Brian Stinespring, I would get the ball to Roberts on second down either with a short pass play or end-around to set up first downs or third and short. The deep routes are exciting but the Hokies need to stick to what they do best and manage the clock.

My predictions:

I think Jeremy Avery will have a solid performance but not the one necessary to give the Broncos a decisive victory. He’ll break a run or two of runs for 10-30 yards but the rest will be 1-3 yards with an average of 3.6 ypc.

I think Roberts will have a big game and break at least one play of over 25 yards or find a way to get open in the end zone on third and goal reminiscent of his catch to beat Nebraska. I'm expecting at least 40 yards receiving on three catches and two runs for 20 yards for a total of five plays over seven yards.

I’m not going to predict the outcome of the game because I am rather superstitious after losing to North Carolina. 

The game could honestly go either way. 

With both teams garnering their highest preseason ranking ever and the hype surrounding the game, they will each come to FedEx field ready to play.

This could easily be one of the top ten most exciting games this season and as a college football fan, I can’t ask for anything else.

Other overlooked predictors to watch for: Time of Possession, Sacks and Passes Defended.