2010 College Football Predictions: Boise State Plays Nat'l Semi Sept. 6

I will predict the entire college football season based solely on each team's schedule.  Because as we know, as long as the Bowl Championship Series is in place, nothing matters more than how easy or difficult your schedule is.

Except maybe your preseason ranking.

The computer doesn't care a whole lot about how good your team is, it cares mostly about how many losses you have and when they occur.

This season, Boise State finally has a legitimate shot at reaching the title game thanks to its preseason ranking and two games against Top 25 opponents in Virginia Tech and Oregon State.

Below, I break down the schedules for each of the teams ranked in the Top 25 of the preseason Coaches Poll, explaining why I think each school will or will not make it to the BCS title game.

Because you can't win the championship unless you're in it.

1. Alabama (Predicted Regular Season Record: 10-2, 6-2)

The Crimson Tide returns a ton of talent from its 2009 BCS Championship team, but a difficult road schedule will make it tough to repeat its undefeated run from last season.

I see Alabama tripping up at No. 19 Arkansas and No. 16 LSU. Even if the Tide is able to win one of those games, it still has challenging home contests against No. 14 Penn State, No. 3 Florida, and No. 23 Auburn. Alabama also has to travel to South Carolina.

Nevertheless, I think the defending champs will win the SEC Championship game over Florida and be second in line to take either Boise State or Iowa's spot in the National Championship if one of those teams slips up.

2. Ohio State (10-2, 6-2)

The Buckeyes should survive home dates with No. 13 Miami and No. 14 Penn State, but road games at No. 12 Wisconsin and No. 10 Iowa won't be as easy.

3. Florida (10-2, 7-1)

The departure of Tim Tebow will become evident when the Gators travel to Alabama and No. 20 Florida State. Games versus LSU, No. 21 Georgia, and South Carolina won't be easy either.

4. Texas (11-1, 7-1)

If my predictions are correct, the Longhorns will finish the season ranked third in the BCS, after defeating Nebraska in the Big XII title game. They'll probably lose at the Huskers on Oct. 16, but defeat Oklahoma at a neutral site two weeks earlier.

5. Boise State (12-0, 8-0)

Last October, I wrote a column about how Boise State could change college football if it were to reach the BCS title game. Maybe I was a year early.

With 21 of 22 starters back from their undefeated '09 team that deserved to play for the title, the Broncos are ranked fifth in the all-important preseason poll.

That means if they're able to beat No. 6 Virginia Tech in a "neutral" site game at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland on Sept. 6, they could very well punch their ticket into January's BCS Championship.

That is, if they don't slip up against No. 22 Oregon State on Sept. 25. I say they run the table and beat Iowa to win it all, changing college football forever.

6. Virginia Tech (9-3, 6-2)

The Hokies could pick up an equally huge win by beating Boise State, but Virginia Tech has a tougher road schedule that includes trips to No. 18 North Carolina and Miami.

7. TCU (11-1, 7-1)

And don't forget about the Horned Frogs, either. They open with a big neutral-site game versus Oregon State, but even if they win that, they'd have to win at No. 24 Utah later on to have a shot at the BCS.

8. Oklahoma (10-2, 7-1)

The Sooners will probably drop one of their tough non-conference games against Florida State or Cincinnati. They also play difficult road conference contests at Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. Then there's that little game versus Texas.

9. Nebraska (12-0, 8-0)

The Cornhuskers have a favorable schedule that includes getting Texas at home and not playing Oklahoma at all. Nebraska will be tested at Oklahoma State and A&M, but I see them advancing to the Big XII title game, where they'll lose to the Longhorns.

10. Iowa (12-0, 8-0)

The Hawkeyes lucked out with their schedule as well, getting to play all of their tough opponents—Penn State, No. 12 Wisconsin and Ohio State—at home.

That's not to say Iowa can't lose there, but you have to like its chances, because its most challenging road game comes at unranked Arizona. The Nov. 20 battle against the Buckeyes should decide the Big Ten championship.

11. Oregon (10-2, 6-2)

The Ducks shouldn't have any trouble sweeping their home slate, but they'll probably lose a couple of their tough road games at Oregon State, USC, Arizona State, and Cal.

12. Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2)

The Badgers get Ohio State at home, but they have to play Iowa and Michigan State on the road.

13. Miami (9-3, 7-1)

The Hurricanes host Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech, but they play at Ohio State, No. 15 Pitt, and No. 17 Georgia Tech.

14. Penn State (9-3, 6-2)

The Nittany Lions play all of their tough games on the road at Alabama, Iowa, and Ohio State.

15. Pittsburgh (10-2, 6-1)

Even if the Panthers run the table at home with wins over Miami and West Virginia, they'd still probably trip up a couple times on the road with dates at Utah, Connecticut, and Cincinnati.

16. LSU (9-3, 5-3)

The Tigers play three difficult road conference games against Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas.

17. Georgia Tech (8-4, 5-3)

The Yellow Jackets have maybe the toughest schedule away from home, with trips to North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Georgia.

18. North Carolina (9-3, 6-2)

If the Tar Heels can get past Georgia Tech and Va Tech at home, they'll still have problems with LSU (neutral), Miami (away), and FSU (away).

19. Arkansas (9-3, 5-3)

The Razorbacks get a couple of heavyweights (Alabama and LSU) at home, but they still have to travel to Georgia, Auburn, and South Carolina.

20. Florida State (10-2, 7-1)

The Seminoles host Wake Forest, UNC, and Florida, but have to travel to Oklahoma and Miami.

21. Georgia (9-3, 5-3)

I see the Bulldogs losing to Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina.

22. Oregon State (9-3, 7-1)

The Beavers may very well win the Pac-10, because they get to play USC and Oregon at home, but they have a difficult non-conference schedule that includes games against TCU and at Boise State.

23. Auburn (10-2, 6-2)

The Tigers get Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia at home, but play at Alabama and Mississippi.

24. Utah (12-0, 8-0)

The Utes' only two challenging games come at home against Pitt and TCU, so it's reasonable to project them as an undefeated team, like TCU and Boise State last year, that gets left out in the cold despite an unblemished mark.

24. West Virginia (9-3, 4-3)

The Mountaineers have to play at LSU, Pitt, and UConn.

ACC Championship Game

Miami (10-3) defeats Florida State (10-3)

Big XII Championship Game

Texas (12-1) defeats Nebraska (12-1)

SEC Championship Game

Alabama (11-2) defeats Florida (10-3)

BCS Championship Game

Boise State (13-0) defeats Iowa (12-1)

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Jordan Schwartz is one of Bleacher Report's New York Yankees and College Basketball Featured Columnists. His book Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]