Why Should We Trust Polls

The coach’s poll and the one from the Associate Press are two widely known rankings that follow a multitude of other preseason polls floating about during the preseason. The differences between these polls generally increase as one descends past the top dozen or so and biases based upon region, team loyalty or some other factor seem to overtake logic. Basically they all are generally made up of the same teams. No one doubts that most of the top teams will still be on the polls and possibly near the top come bowl time however that may be more a facet of the system and less a reflection of reality. This fact is one of my issues with the polls in college football and while it starts with the preseason polls it is not confined there.

I know that a puppy marking a paper or that octopus that picked the world cup have a decent chance of being as correct as some preseason polls, however for the starved college football population, myself included, we read as many of the poll/predictions as we can come across but that does not mean there are not issues with how college football teams are ranked. When talk turns to which team is better that which what is the metric that yields the most truth? It is easy when the matter is settled on the field but otherwise you have varying degrees of apples to oranges.

Over the last few weeks I have commented on other peoples predictions or statements and one of my first questions is always when you say school X is going to be better than school Y are you saying that one will have a better final record or that the better one would own the field in a head to head tilt? I mean if an unnamed school using this year’s coaches poll were beaten just barely by Alabama, Ohio State and Florida where would that put them in the poll relative to the other schools? Could not this team be the fourth best team in the nation? However we all know a team suffering these three defeats would plummet in the polls and be replaced by someone that has not faced such a murders row.

This is my problem with college football polls, a team only moves up if it wins and the teams above it loses. of course the preseason polls are generally beauty contests of the previous year or made up of schools of so called tradition but are the ones that follow the commencement of play any better if the positions are so locked in that movement is really not a relative comparison but rather a traffic jam waiting for a crash. This is my reason for supporting any poll that includes strength of schedule and does not reward running up the score on inferior opponents. Does routing a cupcake prove anything? Should a team that runs up a score be given greater credit in the polls than someone that beats a quality opponent or shows class and brings in the second or third string?

So while most people will read up to this point and think I am preparing to step on the reputation of Boise State or any other of the better teams from the Non-BCS leagues that is not my intent. I just believe that wins and losses is not the perfect view of a teams quality in relation to other teams. There probably is not a perfect system outside everyone playing everyone but failing this I have to ask why pollsters cannot use a modicum of thought when they prepare their inputs, I mean we amateurs on the outside generally can tell when a team is doing well against a weak schedule or wins based upon an obviously bad call (Colorado’s fifth down against Missouri being a glaring example); so I have to ask why do the voters in polls find it so hard to just try to do the same.

I do not know how much if at all the voters in the various polls are paid for their services but if it is a dime then the management of these polls are being robbed and if it is without pay and is some form of honor why do it if you are going to piss it away and just toss crap together?

Personally this is why I support a playoff but there many be other solutions.