Top 50 NBA Fantasy Keepers for 2010-2011
TIER 1
1 Kevin Durant
With LeBron James departing to play with the big three, and Kevin Durant already having led the league in scoring last year, placing him at No. 1 is a no brainer. He's only getting better, and so is Oklahoma City. There's no reason not to expect him to score 30-plus PPG. Not only that, but his free throw contributions of 9.2 of 10.2 per game (90 percent) will win you that category, even if you have a couple of poor free throw shooters on your team.
2 Chris Paul
Really, this could be 1a and 1b, as Chris Paul brings valuable contributions across the board. He's still a 20 PPG and 10 APG player with solid percentages. He's easily the best point guard in the league and should be for many years to come.
3 LeBron James
LeBron used to be the consensus No. 1 pick, but his move to South Beach will hurt his stats a little. While I expect his assists to exceed 10 a game, his scoring will probably go down to the 24-26 PPG range.
4 Dirk Nowitzki
Dirk no longer offers the three-point threat, but is a steady contributor every night. Though getting up there in age, his guile will enable him to be productive into his late 30s.
5 Dwight Howard
For head to head leagues, Dwight Howard belongs here. If you're playing a rotisserie league, you might want to wait a while on drafting him, as he will cripple your team's free-throw percentage.
6 Dwyane Wade
Wade will probably be the go-to guy next year in Miami, and I expect his stats to be roughly the same as last year.
7 Stephen Curry
Curry exceeded all expectations last year, especially towards the end of the season. His threes, steals, and assists make him a valuable chip in keeper leagues.
While Kobe is on the decline most certainly, he, like Jordan, will probably be very effective all the way until age 40.
TIER 2
9 David Lee
Moving from New York to Golden State can only help, as he goes from one high octane offense to another. He's a lock for 20-10, with great percentages.
10 Amare Stoudemire
Being the go-to guy in New York will be to Amare's advantage. He really turned it on at the end of last season, and his center eligibility makes him a top 10 pick.
11 Brook Lopez
Brook Lopez is the closest thing to Tim Duncan that this generation has. His age makes him an attractive piece to build around
12 Pau Gasol
Pau is the most talented offensive big in the league and has been a steady player throughout his career.
13 Carmelo Anthony
Last year Carmelo increased his scoring average...by a lot. He went from 22.8 PPG, to 28.2.
14 Josh Smith
Smith offers off the chart athleticism and is a great shot blocker.
15 Deron Williams
Odd that the second best point guard in the game ranks as low as 15, but Deron Williams is nearly as good as Chris Paul and is a 20-10 threat every night.
TIER 3
16 Andre Iguodala
On the trade block, this is a harder one to place. Evan Turner may hurt his stats a little, but I don't expect it to be significant.
17 Rajon Rondo
Rondo showed in the playoffs this year that he is a force to be reckoned with. If only he could improve his free-throw percentage.
18 Brandon Roy
Roy is Portland's playmaker and best offensive threat. He has averaged 37 minutes a game for each of the last three seasons. I don't think he's going to dramatically improve on what he has done so far in his career, but that's not bad at all when you're averaging 21 PPG, 4 APG, and 4 RPG.
19 Al Jefferson
Jefferson's move to Utah shouldn't hurt him much. I mean, he is playing with Deron Williams after all, who is just a bit better than Johnny Flynn and Ramon Sessions.
20 Gerald Wallace
"Crash" is a well rounded player who brings defensive stats (1 stl, 1 blk) along with stellar rebounding (10 RPG).
21 Chris Bosh
A former first round pick, Bosh's stats figure to take a hit in Miami. 17 and 9 seem to be about right.
TIER 4
22 Chauncey Billups
Billups is getting a bit long in the tooth, but remains one of the best point guards in the league. As I mentioned with Kobe, his guile and skill should enable him to be effective well into his 30s.
23 Jason Kidd
It may be hard to justify taking Kidd this early in a keeper league, but I don't see why. He really hasn't slowed down that much, and is still playing 36 minutes a game.
24 Al Horford
Horford's move to PF this year should help him, as he was a bit undersized to be a center. Horford is a walking double-double with great percentages.
25 Monta Ellis
People were concerned he would never be the same player following his moped accident. Well, they were wrong.
26 Andrew Bogut
Bogut made big strides last season before demolishing his hand. The biggest boon may have been his shot blocking, which seemingly came out of nowhere. He averaged 2.5 blocks a game, after barely managing one a game in years prior.
27 Nenê
Nenê brings great percentages and efficient game. Though he is often drafted in the 50s, he belongs here.
28 Joe Johnson
Joe Johnson is now the most overpaid player in the league. But that doesn't mean he isn't a solid fantasy threat. His versatility makes him a great option here.
29 Antawn Jamison
Jamison figures to benefit now that LeBron is gone. While Cleveland will certainly struggle, Jamison should return to the 20-10 threat he was in Washington.
30 Tim Duncan
Although he turns 34 this year, his production hasn't dropped off. And since he doesn't rely on athleticism to do his thing, I don't see why it would.
31 Evan Turner
Turner is the highest ranked rookie on this list because he is the most NBA ready.
32 Carlos Boozer
Boozer should remain a 20-10 player in Chicago.
33 Rudy Gay
Gay received a monstrous max-contract this summer, but it is because he is one of the game's budding stars. While the Granger comparisons may have been a bit lofty, Gay promises to be a star for many years to come.
34 Tyreke Evans
20-5-5. Only the fourth rookie to do it. Although, I don't see him improving much on it.
TIER 5
35 Steve Nash
The departure of Amare will hurt Nash, plus he is aging.
36 Marc Gasol
Pau's younger brother came into his own last season.
37 Kevin Love
Minnesota chose to go with Love as its future big man instead of Jefferson. Let's hope they're right.
38 LaMarcus Aldridge
Aldridge appears to have reached his ceiling, but it isn't a bad one. 18-8 is pretty solid.
39 Derrick Rose
While Rose's game isn't tailored for fantasy production, he and Joakim Noah form a good, young nucleus and figure to only get better.
40 OJ Mayo
While Mayo didn't make big strides from his rookie year to sophomore campaign, he scores in heaps and is a good three-point shooter.
TIER 6
41 Paul Pierce
Pierce is getting up there in years. Like Duncan, he turns 34 this year, but he remains Boston's go to guy.
42 Manu Ginobili
The game's best sixth man produces well off the bench for San Antonio. His free-throw percentage is a nice add on, and he gets 1.4 steals a game too.
43 Joakim Noah
Other than Dwight Howard, Noah is probably the best rebounder in the league. He averaged 11.0 RPG last season, to go along with 1.6 BPG.
44 Andrew Bynum
His knees are a concern. Buyer beware.
45 Andrea Bargnani
With Bosh gone, his shots will increase, and he is a great three-point threat.
46 DeMarcus Cousins
Cousins should get plenty of playing time in Sacramento and was the most skilled big man in this year's draft.
47 Troy Murphy
A great rebounder and good three-point shooter, Murphy is a much better fantasy player than he is a real life player.
48 Marcus Thornton
He absolutely exploded last year. Despite being the 45th pick in the draft, he put up early first rounder numbers and is an excellent shooter.
49 Russell Westbrook
His field goal percentage is an absolute killer, but his other stats make up for it.
50 Blake Griffin
We'll see what Griffin brings to the table in his first NBA season. It's hard to rank a former No. 1 pick this low, but until he makes his debut, he remains an unproven rookie.
