Fantasy Baseball Scouting Report: Can Wade Davis Turn Things Around?
We discussed Wade Davis last week when we discussed those pitchers with poor BABIP in June (click here to view), but I thought he was deserving of a much closer look. He won the Tampa Bay Raysโ fifth starter spot in Spring Training, though hasnโt delivered quite as people expected:
5 Wins
82.2 Innings
4.68 ERA
1.46 WHIP
57 Strikeouts (6.2 K/9)
38 Walks (4.1 BB/9)
.284 BABIP
You look at the ERA and WHIP and figure that he has to be suffering from some bad luck, but that just isnโt the case. You can see the BABIP is a very realistic number as is his strand rate is currently at 76.3 percent. To explain his struggles, we will have to look elsewhere.
One explanation could be his lack of strikeouts. Over his minor league career he posted a K/9 of 8.7. In his 36.1 inning cup of coffee in 2009, he posted an 8.9 K/9. He clearly has the ability to strikeout more batters then he has, we just havenโt seen it yet.
In fact, his season high is just seven strikeouts, which heโs done twice. Heโs had nine starts where heโs struck out four batters or less. That just doesnโt cut it. While heโs not overly unlucky in the BABIP department, heโs also not striking out as many batters as youโd expect. Thatโs extra balls put in play, meaning extra hits. It certainly has an impact.
Heโs also struggled a bit with the long ball, allowing 1.4 HR/9 due to a HR/FB of 11.7 percent. Heโs made 15 starts this season and allowed home runs in 10 of them. Itโs tough to be successful when you are doing that.
The control has also been an issue. For his minor league career, his BB/9 was 3.3. That includes a 3.4 over 158.2 innings at Triple-A in 2009, so it was not a function of simply facing lesser talent.
It isnโt unexpected to see a pitcherโs BB/9 jump up upon reaching the majors, but a full walk per nine innings is a bit extreme. It had appeared he had straightened out the issue, walking just three batters over four starts from May 29 through June 16. In his last two starts, heโs walked eight. For the season, heโs all ready walked three or more batters in a game nine times.
Yes, he has the stuff to be successful in the Major Leagues, but thus far he just hasnโt shown it. There are three things that he likely needs to do to improve:
- Increase his strikeouts
- Limit his walks
- Limit the home runs allowed
Thatโs an awful lot to ask to come around so quickly and it wouldnโt be a complete surprise to see him struggle on and off all season long. With the Rays trying to compete for the AL East title, in the thick of the battle with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, itโs impossible for the Rays to continue to depend on a pitcher who just isnโt getting the job done.
With Jeremy Hellickson knocking on the door (click here to read our recent report on him as part of our Prospect Tracker), itโs very possible that the Rays make a change at some point if Davis canโt turn things around. Clearly, Davis isnโt a player to be depending on, though with his potential upside heโs worth stashing on your bench.
What are your thoughts on Davis? Can he turn things around? Will he stick in the rotation for the entire season?
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