PAC-16 Would be Bad News for BYU

It looks like it could be a wild and woolly next few days as various NCAA conferences hold their annual meetings and jockey for position for the lucrative affections of the Texas Longhorns.

First it was the Big Ten, then came talk of the SEC showing interest in the Horns.

The latest news has the Pac-10 planning to make a cataclysmic move by trying to draw in six members of the current  Big XII Conference including UT, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado.

Such a move, along with Nebraska and Missouri bolting to the Big Ten Conference, would cause the total unraveling of the Big XII.

Adding to the intrigue is whether or not the Mountain West Conference will invite Boise State. With everything in flux, will the MWC school presidents move to invite BSU?

One has to wonder about the future of the BCS if expansion happens. Admission into college football’s cartel is a big reason for inviting the Broncos in the first place. The MWC schools may now let the dust settle a little before making any moves.

The question Cougar fans have is what would the creation of a 16-team Pacific conference mean for BYU?

Frankly, it wouldn’t be good news for the Cougar programs. The move would most certainly create a domino situation that would lead to the creation of super conferences with BYU likely on the outside looking in.

The Big Ten would move forward with its plans to expand, raiding the Big XII for Nebraska and Missouri and then turning its eyes on the Big East or ACC. Meanwhile, the SEC has already stated that it will look to keep pace in an impending arms race. ACC schools Florida State and Miami will be targets of the SEC, along with perhaps Georgia Tech, Clemson, or Maryland.

The ACC and Big East would be left to pick up the pieces by merging, while the death of the Big XII would mean that there would be no place at the super conference table for schools like BYU and Utah.

One caveat that could work in BYU’s favor in the Pac-16 scenario is if Texas A&M were to decide to move to the SEC instead. There are reports circulating that the Aggies may be more interested in looking eastward. A move to the SEC could potentially help bring A&M out of the long shadow of Longhorns by associating itself with the powers in the SEC. It would also give the SEC a foothold in the state of Texas.

That would create an open spot in the Pac-16. Would incoming schools such as Texas and Oklahoma make a push for BYU to fill that opening? Rumor is that the schools that formed the Big XII originally wanted the Cougars.

The Longhorns hold all the cards in this expansion game. The only hope for BYU is if the Longhorns insisted that the Pac-16 take the Cougars in their proposed “Inland” division. Not a likely scenario.

BYU then would most likely be left out and be forced to cast its lot with the rest of the wandering masses.

The MWC big three—BYU, TCU, and Utah—might seek to create a conference by aligning themselves with the left overs. Options include the current Mountain West schools plus Boise State, Fresno State, Houston, Nevada, and the Big XII homeless—Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa St. It’s hard to imagine any combination of these schools being allowed anywhere near the table of the super conference programs.

Hopefully for BYU the rumor of the Pac-16 is just that—a rumor.