UFC 114 Breakdowns and Predictions

Atop a lackluster card, a great main event sits at UFC 114. The majority of people buying this card are buying primarily for this fight.

After a year’s worth of trash-talking and potty humor, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans will finally do battle. The winner of this bout has been guaranteed a title shot against the new UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson Vs. “Sugar” Rashad Evans

Key Victories :

Rampage (Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson, Murila Rua, Ricardo Arona, Murilo Bustamante, Igor Vovchanchyn, Kevin Randleman, Matt Lindland)

Rashad (Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, Thiago Silva, Michael Bisping)

Forecast :

In the Lyoto Machida fight, Rashad Evans did the “stanky leg” before he went to sleep. At Pride 28, knees from Wanderlei Silva had Rampage demonstrating the “heel toe” before he went crashing through the ropes. What dance moves will we see Saturday night? The Jerk? The Cupid Shuffle? The Macaulay Culkin?

One thing is for sure. There will definitely be some “black on black crime” in the UFC 114 main event. In one of the most anticipated bouts in UFC history, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson will take on “Sugar” Rashad Evans in a battle between The Ultimate Fighter Season 10 coaches.

After a long layoff and rumors of retirement, Rampage is finally back on track in his professional fighting career. The layoff and distractions (A Team Movie) are causes of concern amongst Rampage fans. What kind of Rampage will we see? Will we see a rusty, unconditioned shell of his former self?…Or...Will we see the evolved MMA veteran who ran the UFC Light Heavyweight division not too long ago?

Fighting out of Wolfslair MMA academy, Rampage’s style consists primarily of boxing and wrestling. He trains alongside guys like Cheick Kongo and Michael Bisping. People tend to forget that Rampage was a wrestler before he was a boxer. In high school, he took All-State Honors at Raleigh-Egypt.

After passing on his dream to be a professional wrestler, Rampage continued his amateur wrestling background to the junior level in college. If not for MMA, we could’ve been watching Rampage kissing Vince McMahon’s ass, getting “frog-splashed” by Hornswoggle, or making out with Mae Young. Rampage had a tougher bout than expected in his last outing against Keith Jardine. In the final seconds, he dropped Jardine and cinched the unanimous decision.

Rashad Evans is a pure athlete turned fighter. In high school, he started on both the wrestling and football team. He played safety and halfback during his football years. His wrestling credentials stand as listed: two-time All-State at Niagara Wheatfield High School, National Jr. College Champion (165lb) at Niagara County Community College, and a solid career at Michigan State.

With all of the wrestling credentials, people tend to overlook Rashad’s progression in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He is a black belt under Rolles Gracie. Rolles is a well-known BJJ ace within the Gracie clan (aren’t all those guys?). Rahsad is also a black belt in Gaidojutsu (wrestling and Judo combination). At UFC 108, he dominated Thiago Silva early but ran into problems in the 3rd round. After surviving a near fatal right hand, Rashad maintained his composure and took the unanimous decision.

Keys to Victory :

Despite all of the trash talking, Rampage has to avoid getting too emotional and losing his head in this fight. Rashad has claimed countless times throughout the year that he intends on knocking Rampage out. He even mailed Rampage a Snuggie to “keep him warm on the canvas”.

A smart man can see through this façade a mile away. Rashad Evans isn’t looking to outbox Rampage. He is looking to secure takedowns and work from top position. Rashad will test Rampage’s takedown defense more than any opponent thus far in the UFC.

Unlike Dan Henderson, Rashad will be relentless with his takedown attempts. Rampage needs to keep a low center of gravity and good posture to avoid takedowns during exchanges. We all know how comfortable Rampage has become with his hands, but the time has come to wrestle.

It’s time we see a glimpse of the old Rampage. He has the ability to take Rashad down. I don’t see Rashad presenting Shogun-like complications from his back. Rampage shouldn’t allow himself to become one-dimensional and get behind on the scorecards. If the opportunity is there, shoot for takedowns.

The key to this bout will be octagon control. Rampage needs to cut off Rashad’s angles and close him into the fence. Rashad utilizes a lot of head movement. His motions tend to lose fluidity when on his heels. One mistake could lead to Rashad being gift-wrapped back to Jackson’s MMA in his own Snuggie. We need to see a looser Rampage. Not the same guy launching predictable projectile hooks at Keith Jardine’s head. He should look for openings and remain methodical in his approach.

Rampage is the best pure boxer Rashad has ever faced. Every sway, dip, and dodge will be crucial to Rashad’s standup survival. When setting up shots, Rashad has to avoid becoming playful in movements. Use enough feints to get the takedown. As stated earlier, octagon control will be key in this bout.

Rashad should use distance and try to shoot on Rampage out in the open. Against the fence, Rampage will have an easier time shrugging off takedowns. In the open, Rashad can use his explosiveness to catch Rampage off balance and drag him to the ground.

Rashad has to think takedown, takedown, takedown. He should stick to what he’s good at and refuse to get caught up in the drama of who’s going to make who bust-a-move. Leg kicks could be a useful tool for Rashad in this bout. Rampage has a tendency not to check them. Keith Jardine has some of the nastiest leg kicks in the game. He has probably given Rashad pointers.

Prediction :

If you’re expecting a standup war, you’re going to be very disappointed Saturday night. With that said, this will be an exciting bout. If this fight goes the distance, cardio will become an important factor. Is Rampage back to competitive shape after his layoff? Has Rashad improved his inconsistent cardio? While cardio is important, it isn’t the reasoning that led me to my prediction.

Rashad Evans is a fantastic wrestler. Georges St. Pierre is a fantastic wrestler. Despite both being fantastic wrestlers, there is one unshared trait that makes GSP vastly superior in his respective division. That trait is the ability to control a downed opponent. In his bouts with Michael Bisping and Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans had little trouble taking his opponents down, but he had major trouble keeping them down.

Rampage is a very good wrestler. It will be hard enough to get the takedown. On the feet, the skill sets are completely lopsided. Barring a massive haymaker, Rashad will be in trouble every second this bout remains standing. It also doesn’t help his case that Rampage sports one of the best chins in MMA and tremendous boxing defense.

The primary argument going for Rashad is the possibility that Rampage shows up out of shape. With all of the hype leading up to this fight, I believe we are going to see a dangerous and focused Rampage.

Rashad may get a takedown or two, but he won’t be able to keep Rampage down for long. Rampage will defend the majority of the takedown attempts. Rashad will get hurt during standup exchanges early in the fight. He will give a gutsy performance. The impending doom will come full circle by the end of the 2nd round.

Rampage will catch Rashad with one of his signature hooks and follow up with a few extra punches. Whew...Sunday morning is going to be tough. A hit to the face can heal in a week or two. A hit to your pride can last a lifetime. Good luck to both of these guys.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Vs. Jason “The Hitman” Brilz

Key Victories :

Nogueira (Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson, Kazuhiro Nakamura, Luiz Cane, Vladimir Matyushenko)

Brilz (Jason MacDonald, Eric Schafer, Tim Boetsch)

Forecast :

Before we get started, I just wanted to inform anyone wondering…No…Big Nog isn’t on “P90X”. This isn’t the same Nogueira that fought Frank Mir and Cain Velasquez. Laugh it up hardcore fans. Some people seriously didn’t know. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Lil Nog) is the twin brother of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Big Nog).

Lil Nog was originally scheduled to fight Forrest Griffin on this card. Due to a nagging shoulder injury, Griffin was forced off the card. Lil Nog will now face Omaha, Nebraska native, Jason Brilz.

In comparison to his brother, Lil Nog has also mustered a successful MMA career. He has competed in various organizations and has defeated some of the best fighters in the world. He is most remembered for his years in Pride. Fighting out of Black House, Lil Nog trains with world class fighters on a day to day basis.

Big Nog, Anderson Silva, Paulo Filho, Paulo Thiago, Lyoto Machida, Junior Dos Santos, and Jose Aldo are all Black House fighters. Along with a black belt in BJJ, Lil Nog was the 2006 and 2007 Brazilian Super Heavyweight Boxing Champion. At UFC 106, he made quick work of Luiz Cane in the first round with a TKO stoppage.

Jason Brilz is a mystery to most MMA fans. He was a standout wrestler in both high school and college. At Omaha Central High School, he won a state championship in 1993. He went on to the University of Nebraska-Omaha to become a three time Academic All American and a four year letter winner.

Brilz currently trains at Elite Performance MMA with guys like Ryan Jensen and Jake Ellenberger. In his last fight, Jason Brilz took the unanimous decision over UFC vet, Eric Schafer.

Keys to Victory :

Lil Nog should really get after Brilz on the feet. Brilz will be relentless with his takedowns, but Nog’s BJJ should be enough to stifle his top control. Eliot Marshall was able to effectively use his jab and circle away from Brilz at UFC 103. Nog has a very nice jab. He should use it to keep Brilz at bay and set up his overhand left.

Nog should be prepared to work from the clinch. Brilz loves trapping his opponents against the fence and working short strikes. When this occurs, Nog should secure the underhooks and circle away.

While implementing his standup, Nog will have to be weary of getting taken down. He has ample defense to fend off Brilz. If he finds himself on the ground, he should use his superior BJJ to look for sweeps or submissions. On the feet, Nog will have his chances to land. Brilz doesn’t have the best boxing defense in the world. At times, he drops his hands completely and charges in for telegraphed takedowns.

This is a really tough fight for Brilz. He’s going to have to let it all hang out in this one. Despite having better wrestling, a takedown is going to lead to danger for Brilz. He will have to be sharp from Nog’s guard. What is Nog doing with his hips? Where are my limbs positioned? Where are his limbs positioned? This task could prove even more daunting than the standup.

On the feet, Brilz will not outbox Nog for 3 rounds. He needs to pick his shots and look to land something big. Usually, I hate giving this kind of advice. With the boxing being so lopsided, it can’t really be avoided. It could prove useful if Brilz is able to work Nog from the clinch against the fence. From this position, he can staunch Nog’s boxing with short strikes of his own. For Brilz to see success, this needs to be a slow, drawn out battle.

Prediction :

Lil Nog will have the advantage in almost every area of the fight. The only hope for Brilz will be his wrestling. Against a BJJ black belt of Lil Nog’s caliber, I’m not so sure how good that will do him. I don’t see Brilz getting a takedown, and I don’t see him surviving from Nog’s guard.

I’m not saying that Brilz doesn’t believe he can win, but I seriously believe this is a money fight. Brilz saw a great opportunity, and he stepped to the plate. Besides that reason, I can’t see what in the world possessed him to take this fight.

This won’t be pretty. After a short feeling out process, the beatdown will ensue. Nog will blast Brilz and hurt him early with punches. When Brilz tries to back away, Nog will finish the bout with a devastating knee that will ensure lights out for “The Hitman”. After this bout, I will pray with millions of others that Brilz changes his nickname. The “Hitman” nickname is more used up than recycled diapers.

Dan Miller Vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping

Key Victories :

Miller (Jake Rosholt, John Howard, Matt Horwich)

Bisping (Denis Kang, Chris Leben, Matt Hamill, Eric Schafer, Jason Day)

Forecast :

With Hulk Hogan suing Cocoa Pebbles, I believe it’s time for cereal companies around the world to strike back! General Mills should sue Michael Bisping from taking the “Count” nickname from Count Chocula. While Count Chocula still satisfies customers around the world, Bisping continues to cling to undeserved relevance in the UFC Middleweight division.

I understand that Bisping is the UFC’s golden ticket into the heart of the U.K. Why not push that honor on guys like Dan Hardy and Paul Daley (if he’s allowed to return). Both of those guys are top 10 Welterweights.

Michael Bisping has yet to beat a top 10 opponent in his extended time with the UFC. Even so, the UFC always makes it seem like Bisping is one fight away from a title shot. I’ll do a Mike Goldberg impersonation for this one…“Michael Bisping seeks a shot at Middleweight gold as he takes on Dan Miller in what is sure to be the most important and dangerous bout of his career”…

Dan Miller’s fighting style consists of freestyle, wrestling, and BJJ. He trains at Planet Jiu-Jitsu with his brother, UFC Lightweight contender, Jim Miller. Under Jamie Cruz, Miller received his black belt in BJJ on January 15, 2010. He is coming off 2 consecutive losses to Chael Sonnen and Demian Maia.

Michael Bisping trains at Wolfslair MMA Academy with notable fighters like Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Cheick Kongo. His style is predominantly kickboxing and Muay Thai. He has been working diligently on his wrestling and BJJ. At UFC 110, Bisping went to war with Wanderlei Silva but came up on the short end of the stick.

Keys to Victory :

Dan Miller can finally work his wrestling in this bout. He couldn’t do so against Demian Maia and Chael Sonnen. Maia is arguably the best BJJ artist in all of MMA. Sonnen was the superior wrestler. In this bout with Bisping, Miller will be the superior wrestler.

He should use his boxing to set up his shot. When Bisping over-commits, he will have the opportunity to explode in on the double. Bisping uses a lot of movement in his fights. Miller has to cut the cage off to get better angles for his shot.

As stated in the Rashad Evans analysis, takedowns are only part of the formula of becoming a great wrestler. Miller has had problems controlling opponents on the ground in the past. Bisping has an underrated guard.

He is very good at scrambling off his back and finding a way to his feet. Miller needs to keep a strong base from Bisping’s guard. The takedowns will come. It will all come down to whether or not Miller can control Bisping for extended periods of time.

Bisping should be able to open up a little more on the feet. Miller doesn’t have Dan Henderson, Denis Kang, or Wanderlei Silva’s power. Like his guard, Bisping also has underrated boxing skills. His main problem has been his tendency to be predictable and circle in the wrong direction at times.

Aside from those blunders, he utilizes good footwork and a great one-two combination. Bisping should use his footwork in this bout. He needs to attack at angles. This will make things more difficult for Miller’s takedown attempts and sub par boxing.

Bisping needs to be careful with his leg kicks. Wanderlei Silva was able to grab takedown from a telegraphed kick. Miller will be grasping for every opportunity. Don’t make things easier for him. If taken down, Bisping needs to constantly look for opportunities to scramble back to his feet.

This will be a scrappy bout. Miller isn’t the greatest guard worker. From his back, Bisping may have to grab Miller and wait for the ref to stand the bout back up. Standup and takedown defense will be key for Bisping.

Prediction :

This will be a tough bout for Bisping. Dan Miller will get takedowns, but his inability to control will be his undoing. Bisping will outwork him and get the close unanimous decision.

Mike Russow Vs. Todd Duffee

Key Victories :

Russo (Justin McCully)

Duffee (Assuerio Silva)

Forecast :

Mike Russow is a respectable 12-1 in his MMA career. Fighting out of Chicago, Illinois, Russow is a former police officer for the Chicago Police Department. His first professional MMA bout was in 1998 against Nate Schroeder. Throughout his career, he has adopted a wrestling, BJJ, and boxing style. At UFC 102, he defeated Justin McCully by unanimous decision.

Todd Duffee is the main reason this fight even made it on the main card. At age 24, Duffee’s hulking physique and raw power makes him an interesting prospect. At UFC 102, Duffee recorded the fastest knockout in UFC history (7 seconds) in his UFC debut.

There is still more to Duffee’s game that hasn’t been seen yet. He is a competent grappler in his own right. He also has a good clinch and dirty boxing game. With a 6-0 MMA record, Duffee has ended all of his fights by knockout.

Keys to Victory :

Mike Russow needs to get this fight to the ground and keep it there. One great thing about Russow is his ability to stick to a game plan. He came into the McCully fight intent on taking his opponent to the ground. Amidst boos and pressure from his opponent, Russow was relentless in his takedowns and decent in his top control. Todd Duffee is an explosive striker with gorilla-like strength.

Russow has to find a way to dip under punches and catch Duffee with takedown attempts out in the open. I don’t see Russow muscling him down from the fence. On the ground, Russow needs to be methodical and avoid taking too many chances that will allow Duffee to explode back to his feet. Russow’s goal should be to slow the pace of the bout and outwork Duffee from top position.

Duffee should go super saiyan in this bout. Russow doesn’t have much to offer in the standup department. Shots landing and a ballistic rage from Duffee is all that is needed to overwhelm Russow. Duffee will have to be careful. Russow is game opponent with decent wrestling skills.

If Duffee’s sprawl is as explosive as his strikes, he should be ok in this fight. This should mimic your typical sprawl and brawl type performance. Russow’s top control isn’t the greatest. If fighting from his back, Duffee should immediately look to shift his hips, grab the overhook, and scramble back to his feet.

Prediction :

Todd Duffee will drop Russow early. He will then finish with a ground onslaught that is sure to cause another oil spill…Sorry President Obama…

Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez Vs. John Hathaway

Key Victories :

Sanchez (Nick Diaz, Karo Parisyan, Kenny Florian, Joe Stevenson, Clay Guida, Jorge Santiago)

Hathaway (Paul Taylor)

Forecast :

After losing to BJ Penn at UFC 107, Diego Sanchez decided he would return to Welterweight. This will be his first bout back since his June 2008 stoppage of Luigi Fioravanti. Sanchez will open the UFC 114 main card when he takes on John Hathaway.
Along with a division change, Diego Sanchez has also shaken up his training. He recently moved back to his hometown of Albuquerque, New Mexico to train at Albuquerque Kickboxing and MMA. Under Greg Jackson (former longtime trainer), Sanchez received his black belt in Gaidojutsu.

He is also a respected wrestler and a brown belt in BJJ. Despite skeptics, Sanchez has put in a lot of work to improve his striking. More improvement is needed, but he has come a long way in regards to his standup.

Fighting out of Brighton, England, John Hathaway is a former Rugby player. He trains at ZT Fight Skool and London Shootfighters with Marius Zaromskis, James Thompson, and Mostapha Al Turk. At 22, Hathaway has a bright future ahead of him.

He demonstrated great takedowns and a willingness to strike within the guard in his bout with Paul Taylor. He’ll have his work cut out for him in this one. Sanchez is a tough wrestler who keeps an active guard.

Keys to Victory :

Sanchez will have almost every advantage in this fight. He has to avoid getting taken down and grinded on. Hathaway has a similar style to that of Jon Fitch’s. He’s a grinder. If Hathaway is able to control Sanchez, déjà vu of Sanchez’s fight with Jon Fitch will begin to set in.

Sanchez should mix things up. Along with striking, he should go for takedowns. Sanchez is a good wrestler in his own right. It would be interesting to see how well Hathaway is able to perform from his back.

If Hathaway wins, this will have to be a tough and gritty performance. Despite having superior striking, Sanchez doesn’t offer many combinations on the feet. He utilizes simple one-twos and a high kick. These tools are still more than enough to threaten Hathaway. Hathaway needs to set up takedowns and work Sanchez from the top. There will be tons of scrambles.

Sanchez earned the nickname “Nightmare” due to his relentless pace and pressure on opponents. Hathaway has to be Sanchez’s “Nightmare” in this fight. He has to come out on top in the majority of the scrambles and constantly pressure Sanchez with takedowns.

Prediction :

This will be an exciting fight with a lot of scrambles and jockeying for position. In the end, Sanchez will be too much for the young, English native. Sanchez will outpoint Hathaway and stuff most takedowns en route to a unanimous decision victory. Welcome back to the Welterweight division Dir…Diego Sanchez.

Official Picks

Quinton Jackson By Round 2 TKO Stoppage

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira By Round 1 KO

Michael Bisping By Unanimous Decision

Todd Duffee By Round 1 TKO Stoppage

Diego Sanchez By Unanimous Decision