UFC 113 Breakdowns and Predictions
UFC 113 has it all…Epic rematches, trash-talking, Canadians, massive beards, and more Canadians…This is seriously a great card. I usually point out one fight on every card that’s not very interesting. I can’t find one this time around. This card should shape the future of multiple UFC divisions.
Machida (Mauricio Rua, Rashad Evans, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, BJ Penn, Rich Franklin)
Rua (Chuck Liddell, Alistair Overeem, Quinton Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Ricardo Arona, Kevin Randleman, Mark Coleman)
Forecast :
5…4…3…2…1…The horn sounds! The 5 round Light Heavyweight Championship battle has ended. Shogun raises his hands confident in victory. Lyoto goes with the motions by half-heartedly throwing his unsure hands up as well. Some people are already leaving the arena and discussing Shogun’s first title defense.
The judges scores are in. All 3 judges score the bout 48-47 for the winner….A…nd still! The UFC Light Heavyweight Champion of the world! Lyoto! “The Dragon”! MACHIDA!!! …Hence became one of the most controversial decisions in UFC history.
When the fight stats were publicized, the lynch mobs started to form. According to Fight Metric, Shogun landed 82 total strikes to Lyoto’s 42. The system scored the bout 49-47 for Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Dana White made his disagreement with the decision public. At the end of the bout, you could clearly read his lips when he tells Shogun “You won that fight”.
Regardless of the controversy, it was a methodical fight that showcased the two top Light Heavyweights in the world. The time has finally come for us to be rewarded with the immediate rematch to determine the future of the UFC Light Heavyweight division.
Before his bout with Shogun, Lyoto Machida was considered an enigma in the sport of MMA. Sporting an unblemished record, no one seemed capable of cracking his awkward style of fighting. He is a 3rd-dan black belt in Shotokan and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ). While most fighters lean forward in their stances, Machida is a southpaw who sits back on his hips.
He waits for an opportunity to counter and explodes into his punches. It is a karate based style that not many can mimic. Machida is without a doubt one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world. He trains at Black House with the likes of Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers, Junior Dos Santos, Paulo Thiago, and Jose Aldo. It will be a tall mountain to climb to develop a strategy to defeat him.
In any sport, there is always that one guy or team that seems to really give you problems. The Miami Dolphins are always a tough match-up for the New England Patriots. The Golden State Warriors gave the Dallas Mavericks fits for a long time. Dennis Hallman submitted Matt Hughes on two separate occasions in the first round. As cliché as it sounds, styles make fights.
Shogun made that notion abundantly clear as he battered Machida with leg kicks. By the fifth round, Machida was more wobbly than an Amy Winehouse performance. Shogun is a Muay Thai fighter and a BJJ black belt. He trains at Universidade da luta with his brother Murila Rua in Curitiba, Brazil.
Keys to Victory :
Machida needs to gage his distance better and try to beat Shogun to the punch. In the first fight, Shogun kept a high guard and used great kicking form. It made it really difficult for Machida to explode into his brain scrambling counters. Despite being more elusive than Osama Bin Laden, Machida will need to use more movement in this fight.
He can’t afford waiting idly for 2 minutes while praying for Shogun to drop his guard. He needs to use distance and lateral movements to bait Shogun into being overly aggressive. Another flying roundhouse attempt by Shogun could quickly turn into a fight ending one-two or superman punch for Machida.
With all of this standing talk, Machida should not forget Shogun’s ground game. Accompanying his brilliant Muay Thai, Shogun has sick BJJ skills. Taking the fight to the ground could be part of the challenger’s strategy. While countering, moving, and checking kicks, Machida will have to be aware of disguised takedown attempts.
Despite his great BJJ, Shogun has only one submission victory to his record. Lyoto Machida is also a BJJ black belt with underestimated wrestling. The takedown he delivered to Tito Ortiz was both shocking and crafty. Ortiz never saw it coming. It could prove to be an unexpected change in strategy for Machida to implement in the rematch. If he is successful, he will have to be careful. Shogun’s credentials far surpasses Ortiz, who almost submitted Machida with a triangle.
Besides putting a stamp on each round (to ensure they go his way), Shogun shouldn’t deviate from his initial game plan. Even though he has never been knocked out, an overly aggressive Shogun could quickly see the lights go out for the first time. No, you can’t leave a fight in the hand of the judges. Then again, a fight with Lyoto Machida isn’t like every fight. His awkward style makes him incredibly hard to even damage…more or less finish. Shogun needs to fight his fight and forget about the past.
He should work Machida with leg kicks to keep him off balance. If Machida reels and drops his guard, the kicks can be followed with punches and elbows. As with Machida, distance will be the key for Shogun in this fight. He has to make sure that he’s in range to land, but he also has to make sure that he’s out of range of Machida’s explosive counters.
While picking Machida apart on the outside is important, Shogun should also look to cut off the ever elusive champion and press him against the cage. From this position, he can work his world-renowned Muay Thai Clinch, short strikes, and takedown attempts.
The task of taking Machida down will be a tough one. Despite the difficulty, Shogun will need to use all tools at his disposal. Whether the takedown succeeds or not, it can open up his game significantly. A feint at a takedown could cause Machida to react and leave himself open to various other attacks. Shogun needs to keep Machida guessing. Leave the Wildman routine at home….unless you smell blood.
Prediction :
This bout has been rolling around in my head since its announcement. It’s a tough fight to predict. Both of the fighters match-up so well with one another that it will truly be anyone’s game. The reasoning that led me to my pick seems to differ from a lot of opinions.
People continue to talk amongst themselves about different game plans and whatnot. I honestly don’t see this fight being any different than the first one. Lyoto Machida has shown underrated wrestling abilities. He moves around well and uses great body control to stifle any clinching or takedown attempts from opponents.
In his bout with Machida, Tito Ortiz was in better shape than we’ve seen him in recently. Neither Tito nor Rashad Evans, two talented wrestlers, were able to even come close to getting a takedown. We can make excuses all day for both fighters. “Tito was injured”. “Rashad should have shot in more”.
While these things may be true, statistics don’t lie. Neither guy cinched a successful takedown in their prospective bouts with Machida. I don’t see Shogun succeeding where the others failed. Rashad and Tito are better wrestlers. Whether they can even take Shogun down or survive in his dangerous guard is another story completely.
Shogun will attempt a few takedowns in this bout. I don’t see him being successful. As for Machida, he has trained in the same style practically all his life. Do you really expect some drastic change now?
Machida is not going to chase Shogun, turn into Leonard Garcia, nosedive, and do the swim with his punches. It would be an unfamiliar tactic that could get the champion dropped like a drunken Nyquil victim. The only changes for Machida will probably be a little more movement and checking leg kicks. If there is a drastic change, it would come in the way of multiple takedown attempts.
This will be a technical, drawn-out war. After a 5 round battle, Bruce Buffer will read the judges scorecards. “And the winner by split decision….A…..New! UFC Light Heavyweight Champion of the World! Mauricio! “Shogun”!!! Rua!!!!!! Ready for rounds 11-15?
Key Victories :
Koscheck (Diego Sanchez, Frank Trigg, Anthony Johnson, Yoshiyuki Yoshida, Dustin Hazelett, Chris Lytle)
Daley (Martin Kampmann, Dustin Hazelett, John Alessio, Duane Ludwig)
Forecast :
Kos: “I plan on rearranging those teeth in his mouth. You know he already has those braces and those messed up teeth.”
Daley: “Josh Koscheck will be leaving with his teeth in a bag and a I am Semtex’s bitch t-shirt to go with it.”
Kos: “This guy has me so pissed off that you’re going to see the best and most aggressive Josh Koscheck you’ve ever seen.”
Daley: “I’m going to absolutely decimate this ****.”
If that doesn’t get you fired up, I don’t know what will. These two have been verbally assaulting one another for awhile now. Paul Daley even went as far as to create a Josh Koscheck hair Photoshop contest. The net has since lit up with creative and entertaining Shoops. Koscheck admitted in a UFC interview that he found it all to be quite funny himself.
The jokes will quickly come to an end on Saturday night. This is an extremely important fight in the UFC Welterweight division. The winner of this fight has apparently been guaranteed a shot at Georges St. Pierre’s Welterweight title. Paul Daley and Josh Koscheck are two of the most explosive Welterweights in the world. Prepare for fireworks!
Fighting out of American Kickboxing Academy, Josh Koscheck is a brown belt in BJJ. We got a taste of his submission skills when he submitted Anthony “Rumble” Johnson in his last outing via rear naked choke. Despite his BJJ and improved standup, Kos’s bread and butter is his wrestling.
He is a Division 1 NCAA champion, a four-time Division 1 All-American, and a three-time recipient of the PSAC Wrestler of the Year award. The listed credentials go on for Kos. He made his UFC debut in Season 1 of the Ultimate Fighter. Since the show, he has become one of the best Welterweights in the world.
Paul Daley is an English native who is a member of Team Rough House. The team features fighters like Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy, Ross Pearson, and Andre Winner. Daley is a talented boxer with tremendous power.
Since bursting on the UFC scene, he has dismantled two highly-regarded opponents in Dustin Hazelett and Martin Kampmann. Neither bout made it out of the first round. With over 30 bouts to his record, he has tons of experience. His impressive skill set, confident attitude, and sly humor could soon make Paul Daley a household name.
Keys to Victory :
Kos needs to secure the takedown. Paul Daley has heavy hands and a great chin. Why try to outbox a more technical boxer when you know you can drag the fight to the ground? The most danger will come from trying to set up the takedown attempts; however, Kos shouldn’t overestimate Daley’s takedown defense. Jake Shields and Nick Thompson were both able to cinch takedowns and work Daley on the ground. Daley has surely improved since those bouts, but Kos needs to try to exploit those old weaknesses.
Kos has the ability to stand with Paul Daley. For how long…? Well, that’ll depend on Kos’s boxing defense. Instead of using the standup to prove a point, Kos needs to use it to disguise his takedown attempts. Watch out for that monstrous left hook of Daley’s.
If caught, Kos could wake up 5 minutes later wondering if Paulo Thiago hit him again. Dan Miragliotta will be standing over him….“Are you ok Kos? Paul Daley just knocked you out. You were out for 2 minutes. I…um…sort of slipped and fell on you…and you were out again for another 3. Sorry…”
Paul Daley shouldn’t fear the takedown. Doing so will only hamper his success on the feet. He has to go in with the mentality of acceptance. He will get taken down. When on his back, he should fight to create space and look for scrambles to escape. I’m not saying Daley should allow himself to be taken down. He needs to fight like hell to avoid all takedown attempts. Realize the threat without fearing it.
On the feet, he has to make the most of his opportunities. He should utilize a lot of footwork and his superior boxing to pick Kos apart. For great wrestlers, changing levels to shoot is a knee-jerk reaction. Daley shouldn’t over-commit on combos. Get in and get out. Pressing aggressively could easily lead to Daley getting dumped on his head. Unless he catches Kos, “Semtex” will be in for a grueling battle. He better be in great shape.
Prediction :
Trash talking is always fun leading up to a big fight. After a fight, reality finally sinks in…and unfortunately…someone has to eat a large slice of humble pie. Kos stated he may stand in this fight to prove a point. I have to call shenanigans on this one. Kos will come out and stand briefly. He will shoot in the first chance he gets and secure a takedown. Kos will work a tired and desperate Daley on the ground. One mistake will lead to Kos taking Daley’s back and securing the rear naked choke in the 2nd round.
Key Victories :
Stout (Spencer Fisher, Joe Lauzon, Matt Wiman)
Stephens (Rafael dos Anjos, Cole Miller, Diego Saraiva)
Forecast :
This should be a very exciting fight. Sam Stout and Jeremy Stephens are two Lightweights who always come to battle. Expect fast-paced action and a lot of scrambles. I wouldn’t be surprised if this takes fight of the night honors.
Sam Stout’s style consists primarily of Muay Thai and Kickboxing. He trains at Xtreme Couture which hosts a stable of world class fighters such as Randy Couture, Tyson Griffin, Forrest Griffin, Gray Maynard, and Ronaldo “Jacare” de Souza.
In 8 UFC bouts, Stout is an even 4-4. All four of his wins have come by decision. May have to change his nickname to “Hands to the Judges”. Stout looked extremely impressive in his last fight against Joe Lauzon. He shrugged off most takedown attempts and out-pointed Lauzon to a unanimous decision victory.
If you need an example of how stacked the Lightweight division is, you should take a look at Jeremy Stephens. Despite being a “lower-echelon” UFC Lightweight, he is still a quality fighter looking to separate himself from the herd. The division consists of BJ Penn/Frankie Edgar at top, Kenny Florian/Gray Maynard/Sean Sherk/Tyson Griffin as contenders, and a pool of sharks contending to be contenders.
Along with Sam Stout, Jeremy Stephens is in that pool of sharks. Born in Des Moines, Iowa, Stephens began his amateur MMA career at the age of 16. He lost to Din Thomas in his first UFC bout at UFC 71. After the loss, he rebounded and went on a three fight win streak. Like Sam Stout, Stephens has a UFC record of 4-4. He is coming off a TKO (due to cut) win over Justin Buchholz.
Keys to Victory :
On the feet, Sam Stout should be able to have his way with Jeremy Stephens. While Stephens doesn’t exhibit the technical prowess of Stout, he does exhibit tenacity, a great chin, and a lot of power. Stout has to avoid all wild, unnecessary exchanges.
He should take his time and try to dissect Stephens’s sloppy standup. Instead of keeping his punches tight, Stephens windmills them like Randy Johnson fastballs leaving himself open for various counters. Stout should exploit these openings and be prepared to defend any takedowns that may come his way.
Stephens should be weary of his reckless style in this bout. Sam Stout has striking that demands respect. I honestly don’t think Stephens will beat Stout if this bout stays standing for 3 rounds. Stephens will have to get creative. At times, he will have to look for the takedown.
Sam Stout is too technical with too good a chin for Stephens to bully. The glaring chink in Stout’s armor has always been his ground game. Stephens should look to mix up his various modes of attack, avoid telegraphing his shots, and keep a good defensive posture.
Prediction :
Key Victories :
Mitrione (“Big Baby” Marcus Jones)
Kimbo (Houston Alexander, Tank Abbott, James Thompson)
Forecast :
In my opinion, this is the least relevant fight on the entire main card. That doesn’t mean this fight won’t be fun. Between the two fighters, they have a combined 6 professional MMA bouts. We’ll see if Kimbo’s edge in the experience is the difference maker as he takes on fellow The Ultimate Fighter Season 10 alumni, Matt Mitrione (Meathead).
Matt Mitrione is a former NFL Linebacker and Defensive Tackle turned Mixed Martial Artist. He drifted amongst teams like the Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, and San Francisco 49ers. Fighting out of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Mitrione’s skill-set consists primarily of boxing. At the TUF 10 Finale, Mitrione sent Marcus “Big Baby” Jones into retirement via two right crosses.
Kimbo Slice’s story is a Cinderella one. Born in Nassau, Bahamas, Kimbo came to the United States and was raised by his single mother. He grew up in Cutler Ridge, Florida. He was a star Middle Linebacker in High School who went on to attend college on an athletic scholarship at Bethune-Cookman University and the University of Miami. In school, Kimbo studied criminal justice. His house in Perrine, Florida was destroyed in 1992 by Hurricane Andrew. With no home, he lived in his car for a month.
Kimbo’s street fights made him an internet sensation. His videos on Youtube have totaled millions of hits. As the sport of MMA blossomed, people were calling out for Kimbo to try his hand in professional fighting. He accepted and became a Mixed Martial Artist….thus ending his time “beating up people behind his local Burger King” (thank you James Toney).
Kimbo is 4-1 in his MMA career. His only loss came to “The Kimbo Killer” Seth Petruzelli. I don’t know what’s more embarrassing. The fact that Kimbo got knocked out by a jab, or that Petruzelli has since retired to smaller venues and still uses that lame nickname to gain recognition.
In his last fight, Kimbo defeated Houston Alexander in one of the most awkward bouts of 2009. He is currently training at American Top Team. The team features guys like Thiago Silva, Thiago Alves, Jorge Santiago, Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante, Wilson Gouveia, and Mike Brown.
Keys to Victory :
Mitrione has to exhibit decent boxing defense in this fight. Against “Big Baby”, he randomly flung his arms up like he was trying to catch the punches with his hands. Kimbo has decent boxing skills. Unlike “Big Baby”, he isn’t going to paw at you like a Grizzly Bear swatting flies.
While keeping a tight defense, Mitrione needs to work leg kicks. Take some juice out of those 36-year-old legs and try to slow Kimbo’s movement. Throw tight punches with a quick recoil and keep moving. This all sounds great on paper. With just one fight to his record, it will be interesting to see if Mitrione’s MMA competence has come along far enough to do any of this.
Kimbo needs to get after it and test Mitrione’s chin early. As stated earlier, Mitrione has a problem covering up in his fights. His chin stands out like Jet Li at a Bon Jovi concert. The opportunities to land will be there. Will Kimbo take the initiative? …or…Will he hang back and eventually gas out like he did against Houston “The Black Kalib Starnes” Alexander?
I would take door number one. Kimbo should also implement takedowns if the opportunity presents itself. Mitrione doesn’t have great defense, and Kimbo’s takedown on Alexander showed a true maturity in his game.
Prediction :
Patrick “The Predator” Cote Vs. Alan “The Talent” Belcher
Key Victories :
Cote (Ricardo Almeida, Kendall Grove, Scott Smith, Drew McFedries, Jason Day, Jason MacDonald)
Belcher (Wilson Gouveia, Denis Kang, Ed Herman, Jorge Santiago)
Forecast :
It’s a shame that this fight is being overshadowed by Kimbo/Mitrione. This is a bout that is well-deserving of some hype. It ’s been nearly two years since Patrick Cote entered the octagon. He looks to regain momentum and another title shot as he takes on Alan “The Talent” Belcher.
From 2007-2008, we saw Patrick Cote tear through the Middleweight division like an obese toddler through chocolate cake. He secured five straight victories to earn himself a title shot against Anderson Silva. While many expected Cote to get diced up like onions, most gave him a puncher’s chance. The fight was quite odd to say the least. Anderson remained passive as Cote absorbed a punch here and there.
At the beginning of the third round, Cote extended his leg awkwardly and seriously injured his knee. As odd as the fight was, I initially thought Cote was trying to bait Anderson with his gestures of agonizing pain…A new fighting style perhaps?…“The Weeping Crane”? It was sad to see Cote’s ride end the way that it did.
“The Predator” is finally back. He has claimed in various interviews that he is 100% and ready to go. Fighting out of Quebec City, Quebec, Patrick Cote trains at Brazilian Top Team Canada and Sityodtong Boston. His training partners consist of Georges St. Pierre, Kenny Florian, Jorge Rivera, Stephan Bonnar, and Marcus Davis. Since implementing GSP’s famed nipple-tweak in his game, Cote’s skills may finally surpass those of Anderson Silva’s.
Despite being praised as a Middleweight prospect, Alan Belcher has endured an inconsistent UFC career. He seems to win fights he shouldn’t win and loses fights he shouldn’t lose. Fighting out of Biloxi, Mississippi, he is a Muay Thai fighter with a Brown Belt in BJJ. He trains at his own gym at Remix MMA. In his last bout, he delivered the upset over Wilson Gouveia. A win over Patrick Cote would fire Belcher up the Middleweight hierarchy.
Keys to Victory :
Despite being a dynamic and diverse striker, Belcher leaves a lot of openings in his defense. Cote has to expose those openings. Controlling the octagon and dictating the pace of the fight are two things Patrick Cote is very good at. It also helps that he hits harder than gas prices in 2008 and has a chin that could crack cement.
After a few exchanges, Belcher will most likely try to clinch grapple Cote against the fence to work short strikes and knees. Cote needs to move laterally and circle away to avoid getting pinned. If pressed against the cage, he needs to secure the overhook and use it to either reverse Belcher or escape the position. CHECK THOSE LEG KICKS!
If Alan Belcher is ever going to keep his hands up, this is definitely the fight to do it in. With two TKO losses to his record, he is more than capable of taking a dirt nap. He has to protect himself in this fight. Closing the distance will be key for Belcher.
If he can keep Cote pressed against the cage, he will have an easier time avoiding the big shot and wearing the Canadian down. As a fighter, you don’t wish serious harm on your opponent. This isn’t a street brawl. It’s a sport. With that said, don’t be surprised if Belcher tests Cote’s knee with early leg kicks. I hope Cote is indeed 100%.
Prediction :
This will be a fun bout when the action is in the middle of the octagon. Various clinch battles against the fence will often slow the pace. In the end, Alan Belcher will have no answer for the power of the nipple-tweak. Patrick Cote will control the majority of this bout and earn the unanimous decision.
Official Picks
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua by Split Decision
Josh Koscheck by Round 2 Submission
Sam Stout by Unanimous Decision
Kimbo Slice by Round 1 TKO
Patrick Cote by Unanimous Decision
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