UFC 113: Machida vs. Shogun 2, a Technical Breakdown

The upcoming rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua in Saturday's UFC 113 event should be perhaps the most intriguing fight of the year.

The first fight was a highly technical affair that left the majority of fans feeling that Rua had done enough to win the title. However, many fans still felt like Machida won, and in any case, it seems like most fans now think Machida will have the edge in the rematch.

With the fight less than a week away, it's time break down the technical aspects of the rematch.

Striking

The most remembered story of the last fight was the success Rua had with landing unanswered kicks to Machida's legs and torso.

While Machida was still able to have his moments on the feet, most observers felt that Rua's kicks were the difference in the fight. Machida did counter some of these kicks, but most observers felt the counters should not have been enough to earn the decision.

If Shogun uses the same tactics as he did in his last fight, the question will be if Machida can find an answer to those kicks.

When looking at the kicks Shogun landed in the first fight, they can be divided into two types.

1. Kicks that Machida attempted to counter, usually with punches.

2. Kicks that Rua was able to land without any attempt at countering.

When Machida was countering kicks, he wasn't really doing too badly in the exchanges. He did miss with some of his punches, and was never able to score a trip, but his punch counters were arguably worth more than the leg kicks themselves. It will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments Machida makes to be more successful with his counters.

Aside from those kicks that Machida attempted to counter, there were many kicks that Rua was able to land freely on Machida without even attempted counters.

When Rua charged forward, Machida would occasionally move backward and then circle away to Rua's right side. In many of these instances, Rua was able to land kicks while Machida circled to his power leg.

If Machida simply circles away from Rua's right leg, he'll be able to better avoid Rua's power leg kicks, but as Michael Bisping showed us, these circling habits can be hard to break.

But even if Machida is able to make these changes successfully, it's possible that any Machida changes might open him up for other attacks.

For example, if Machida is forced to change his stance, his head might then become a more hittable target.

All things considered, it's extremely hard to predict who has the real edge if the fight remains a striking battle.

Grappling

The first fight was fought entirely on the feet, but Machida and Rua are both grappling experts.

Both are good BJJ black belts, but both operate in different ways.

Rua is probably the more dynamic grappler. He likes to initiate scrambles and chain off submission attempts.

People tend to underrate Machida's grappling skills because he hasn't submitted many people.

Lost on his record is the fact that he's almost never been out-grappled in an MMA fight.

He also owns a grappling competition points victory over Rafael Lovato Jr.

Unlike Rua, Machida is less likely to initiate scrambles, and chain submission attempts. Machida will attempt to sweep if he's on the bottom, and if he's on top, he'll try to dominate position rather than risking ending up in an unfavorable position.

Because of their different styles, I think the most precarious position would be for Machida to be underneath Rua, as I think Rua probably has the better chance of having success on the bottom.

That being said, Machida has the better takedowns, so if the fight winds up on the ground, Machida is more likely to be on top, and if he is in top position, Machida should fare much better.

Because I think Machida is the fighter more likely to get trips or takedowns, I favor him if the fight becomes a grappling match.  He could use top position control to score points, win rounds, and tire Rua out.

Cardio/Stamina

In my last article I said that I felt that Rua's gassing in the Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman fights had more to do with the pace of those fights than it did with any ring rust or injuries.

Cardio wasn't an issue in the first Machida vs. Shogun fight because it was fought at a much more conservative pace.

In the rematch, it's hard to pick out a cardio advantage.

Machida looked tired near the end of the Tito Ortiz bout, and he also looked tired late in his fight against Kazuhiro Nakamura.

Aside from just the Coleman and Griffin bouts, Rua also wore down considerably against Rogerio Nogueira.

If no fighter can gain a positional advantage, I don't know if either fighter will have a stamina advantage.

On the other hand, I think Machida has the better chance of gassing out Rua because he has a better chance of dominating position on the ground, and forcing Rua to expend energy playing the guard game.

Intangibles

The first fight was so close that it's difficult to say which fighter feels more pressure to change up their game plan.

Even though neither game plan was entirely successful, both game plans were at least somewhat successful, so it could be the case that if one fighter changes his game plan it may actually be to his own detriment.

I'm also interested in the idea that Machida might feel obligated to defend his karate style.  If he does feel that way, he'll probably be able to keep the fight standing with his superior takedown defense, but he'll lose the possible advantage that he would gain by taking the fight to the ground.

Prediction

In my opinion, this fight is in Machida's hands, because there are more obvious ways that he can improve upon his last performance.

There aren't as many clear and specific things Rua can do better in the striking than he did in his last fight, and he failed at being able to take the fight to the ground.

There are some very clear things that Machida can fix in order to have more success on the feet, and I favor him on the ground if he's able to take Rua down.