Boise And A New SWC Could Take A BCS Bid From The MWC

The New Standards

Last week the BCS released its criteria for the admission of a new, seventh BCS conference. The first two criteria to be judged after the 2008-2011 regular seasons are:

1) The top ranked team in the conference each year, and

2) The average computer ranking of all conference teams

In order for a seventh conference to be added it must place in the top six of both of these criteria. If a conference places seventh in one and at least fifth in the other, then an oversight committee will rule on whether to include that conference.

The third and final criterion is based on the number of teams from a conference ranked in the Final BCS Top 25. Teams ranked higher will give a conference more weight; more weight will also be given to conferences with less teams.

A team must finish with at least 50 percent of the score of the highest scoring conference in this field (currently the SEC) to automatically qualify. Otherwise, a team must have at least 33 percent of that score to be eligible to petition the oversight committee.

How The Conferences Shake Out

Only the Mountain West (MWC) and Western Athletic Conferences (WAC) are scoring in each of these categories, so we will consider only them. And, really, only Boise State is scoring for the WAC.

Right now the MWC (5.0) is placing third and the WAC (Boise State: 7.5) is tied for fifth in the first category of highest ranked teams. Both of these rankings meet the new standard.

For average computer ranking, the MWC is placing seventh (+00.8 of average) and the WAC is placing eighth (-13.0 of average) . These are substandard rankings, but the MWC is still eligible to petition the oversight committee.

In the Final BCS Top 25 category, the top score is held by the SEC, scoring 22.0. The MWC is scoring 20.0. And Boise State is single handily scoring 8.8 for the WAC (more than 33 percent of 22.0). The MWC has a healthy score that continues to allow them to petition the oversight committee.

If the WAC moves into at least seventh place in computer rankings then they will also be eligible to petition the oversight committee.

What Should Happen...

Right now the only thing keeping the Mountain West from automatically qualifying for a BCS bid by 2012 is their low computer score (+00.8) . The Big Ten, which currently has the sixth best computer average has a score of (+09.3) .

Conventional wisdom has been that if the Mountain West invited Boise State then they would secure their bid. But adding Boise State brings up that computer average only to (+06.0) , making the Broncos a needless addition.

Conventional wisdom has also been that if the Mountain West petitions the oversight committee they will get in because of the longstanding political pressure and the fact that it would only be a minimum of a two year commitment for the BCS.

While the Mountain West is 60 percent closer to the sixth place Big Ten than to the eighth place WAC, their position is precarious. And, if the WAC played significantly better or improved their membership , then the Mountain West may even lose their chance at petitioning the BCS.

Bucking Broncos Could Break Mountain West

If the Broncos so desired they could create a new conference filled with the best teams from the western mid-majors not yet a part of the Mountain West.

The Best teams from the WAC – Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii – joined by southwestern teams Houston, Troy, Tulsa, and Southern Miss would supass the MWC.

This new conference would have a computer score of (+05.5) , more than twice as close as the Mountain West is to that coveted sixth place.

Even more compelling is that in this way Boise State could essentially cripple the Mountain West's chances at gaining an automatic bid to the BCS by putting the conference in eighth place in the computer rankings and ineligible to petition the oversight committee.

While this new conference would then also be eligible to petition the oversight committee, it would be seen as an amalgam thrown together to take advantage of the system and would probably be denied the automatic bid.

A Re-merging Southwest Conference?

In the hypothetical conference above, four of the eight teams (eight being the BCS minimum) are from the Central or "Southwest" region of the country: Houston, Troy, Tulsa, and Southern Mississippi.

TCU, the leading member of the MWC in terms of rankings the past two years is the only team in that conference not playing in the Mountain or Pacific time zones. Since moving from Conference USA to the Mountain West their travel expenses have escalated.

Given the choice between two regional conferences either of which will gain an automatic BCS bid if you join, would you not choose the conference that you are geographically a part of?

If TCU joined this new hypothetical conference (replacing lowly Southern Mississippi), the computer ranking would swell to (+14.1) , jumping not only sixth place Big Ten but the Pac-10 and Big 12 as well, landing at fourth and instantly solidifying themselves as a top conference in every category.

Baiting the Hook

Overall, Boise State probably does not have enough clout to get the above set of teams together, let alone entice TCU to leave the otherwise united Mountain West. Such an initiative could probably only be undertaken by a collection of teams, most likely those in the Southwest.

The teams in the Eastern Division of CUSA have complained about travel costs and the Texas voting block. There have been rumours this friction and the travel costs may have the Western Division considering succession.”

If the three older Southwest Conference teams (Houston, Rice, and SMU) banded together with Boise State, then this movement might have momentum.

If Rice (-18.8) replaced geographic outlier Hawaii (-11.8) and SMU (-32.9) replaced the weakest remaining team, Tulsa ( also -11.8) , this "New" Southwestern Conference would have a computer average of (+10.6).

This would still be a solid sixth place conference in terms of average computer ranking. And, with both TCU and Boise State buoying the Final BCS Top 25 criterion, would bypass the oversight committee and go straight to automatic BCS inclusion.

The Time Line

It is my assumption that AQ conferences will be judged by the teams that will be playing in their conferences for those years 2012 and 2013, for which all of these numbers will project.

If Utah and/or BYU intend to leave the Mountain West for the 2012 season, the Mountain West should not include their numbers. Similarly, this new Southwest Conference should also be judged based on its 2012 membership.

This means that these teams may still wait until after the coming season to solidify their plans and observe an extra year of data. These schools will then play the 2011 season in their current conferences and await judgement come the final BCS poll in December, playing their first season together the next fall.

Escape Valve (Conclusion)

The only team outside of the MWC that really has any elite status among mid-majors is Boise State. Without them any attempt to bypass the MWC is a non-starter.

The simple solution for the MWC, should any of these plans start coming together, is to invite Boise State as the league's 10th member. The MWC would be much more enticing than a Texas-centered league.

But the window of opportunity for the MWC invitation to Boise State closes at the end of this summer. The MWC is a very stable conference and does not need 11th hour decisions throwing a monkey wrench into its economic plans.

Creating a new conference, on the other hand, is already risky business. To the tune of over $2 Million, these eight teams can risk waiting one more season before putting their plan in motion.

The endeavor may fail to attract key teams and fail, or the 2011 season could be a flop and dash the aspirations of these adventurers. But the risk is worth the reward.

2008-2009 Computer Averages in relation to the mean

Elite teams: averages a BCS Top-12 finish

+52.9 Boise State

+52.2 TCU

BCS caliber teams: averages a BCS Top-25 finish

+45.6 Utah

+43.6 BYU

Other above-average teams

+13.3 Houston

+10.5 Air Force

+06.3 Troy

+06.3 Nevada

+05.8 Fresno St

Third Quarter Teams

-11.8 Tulsa

-11.8 Hawaii

-16.6 So Miss

-18.8 Rice

-19.4 La Tech

-19.9 M Tenn St

-19.9 UNLV

-20.2 Wyoming

-20.4 Colo St

-23.3 N Illinois

Fourth Quarter Teams

-32.0 Idaho

-32.9 SMU

-33.5 La Monroe

-34.0 San Jose St

-34.3 Utah St

-35.2 UTEP

-35.9 UAB

-40.6 La Monroe

-41.2 New Mexico

-41.5 Arkansas St

-43.4 SDSU  

-43.4 Memphis

-50.2 New Mexico St

-50.8 Tulane

-58.2 N Texas

-59.9 W Kentucky