NFL Draft: Art or Science?

The dusty pages of the book containing the history of the NFL draft are filled with tales of fantastic college athletes picked in the first two rounds who go on to stellar professional careers. 

Provocatively, its yellowing sheets also tell the stories of draft choices that flop, late-round bargain picks that produce solid or even Hall of Fame-caliber NFL players, and last-minute trades and deals ultimately providing the building blocks of dynasty franchises.

The modern day NFL draft is still packed with all these scenarios and much more, but with a few notable exceptions, such as this year’s arguably shocking Tim Tebow first-round pick by Denver.

Current drafts lack the selection of hungry athletes who don’t fit the prototypical NFL player.  Case in point, Sam Bradford goes number one overall while the winningest QB in the storied history of college ball, Colt McCoy, goes late in the third round, all because he does not possess the prototypical NFL quarterback package of physical prowess.

Though undeniably relevant and of great importance, the modern emphasis on objective stats such as arm strength, height, speed, power, the system their respective college coaches ran, and overall size have seemingly become the sole determinants of who gets a call from the lauded helmet phone on draft day and who, conversely, sits at home awaiting a phone call that will sadly never come.

Indeed, what has become of the pick of the undersized, not fast enough, yet hungry, instinctual, and full of heart youngster who is absolutely destined to play football at the highest levels? 

My father-in-law calls this incalculable trait the “stuff” and uses this term to explain gridiron heroes such as Tom Brady, Zach Thomas, Terry Bradshaw, Jason Taylor, Brian Westbrook, and Marion Barber, whom by our lofty modern typecasting don’t really fit into our prototyping of the modern day NFL player. 

It’s a subjective quality these athletes posses, and though lacking in one or more of the objective qualities, they historically come ready to play, and as classic over-achievers they play above and beyond their level of skill, ultimately becoming the epitome of NFL greatness. 

So, is the NFL draft a science or an art? 

Does it require the careful calculations of a scientist, adhering consistently to a rigid formula banking on the fact that though imperfect, the scientific process will no doubt in the end achieve results with the highest percentage of good picks over bad. 

Or instead is the draft an art?

A careful combination of a formula and instinct, looking at players for more than their obvious outer package, and taking a glorious chance on a young man who has more than sheer physicality to offer a league in desperate need of a refreshing set of new young players?

Perhaps the draft is, at its best, ultimately an art and a science.  

That said, the modern NFL’s undeniable shift to a scientific approach to the draft makes me wonder what we, as a community of NFL enthusiasts, are missing out on by letting unchecked objectivity rule the greatest of the professional team sports. 

Who deserves an opportunity, but is not playing on Sunday and to what level is the contemporary NFL suffering without even being aware of it?