Expansion a Foregone Conclusion?

When Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany announced to the world that his conference was considering expansion last December, the college football world flew into a frenzy.  Who would it be?  Notre Dame had made it clear that they weren’t interested. 

When Delany also hinted that the conference would consider adding more than one team, the debates really got heated.  How many?  Would he push for the first 16-team Super Conference?

Many people pointed out however, that expansion wasn’t even a forgone conclusion.  The Big Ten had hinted at expansion in the past, only to have the discussion fade away in a cloud of useless debate.  What made this time any different?

Others believed Delany was serious this time.  They drew similarities between his verbiage this go round with things said when Penn State was coaxed out of independence to become the eleventh team in the conference. 

There was also just a “feel” that he was aiming for the coup de gras of his tenure as league commissioner—that really big move that would lock him into the highest volumes of the storied Big Ten history books.

Why Expand?

The first question that fueled the various debates was why the conference needed to expand in the first place.  Obviously, as one of only a few conferences left that didn’t play a championship game, it seemed only natural that at the top of Delany’s list or reasons was to push his conference into the first weekend of December and keep the teams in the national spotlight.

Penn State coach Joe Paterno had lobbied for that very thing recently and indicated that it was a hindrance to the teams bound for New Year bowls that they quit playing two weeks before everyone else (the Big Ten generally ends just before Thanksgiving). 

Not only do they have to spread out their allotted 15 practices over a longer period of time than their competitors, but they’re out of the national spotlight precisely at the time when bowl selection committees (especially BCS bowls) are paying the closest attention. Adding a 12th team would mean the Big Ten could play that championship game, stay competitive, and stay visible.

This is a tough economy and let’s not be naive; money is also an issue and, no doubt, Delany would want to do something to ensure that the Big Ten not only stayed financially stable, but increased it’s profit potential.

The Players

If, in fact, Delany was serious from the very beginning, who would be the most likely candidates for conference expansion?  Some very interesting names have been thrown about.

Of course, topping the list was Notre Dame.  The relationship between the Irish and the Big Ten has been a tango, the likes of which Len Goodman would be proud to judge.   The Irish made it abundantly clear immediately though, that they had no interest in shedding their independent status to join any conference, let alone the Big Ten.

Next down the pecking order were teams from the New York/New Jersey area – where the population is big enough to potentially explode the viewership of Delany’s brain child, the Big Ten Network.

Texas briefly entered the conversation, and really shook up the fans’ imagination.  In the end, it appears that Texas was nothing more than a fantasy concocted by fans hoping that the powers-that-be might listen.  It didn’t really make a lot of sense, but it was exciting to imagine the Longhorns playing the Buckeyes and/or Wolverines every year.

Missouri made it clear that they would be interested in joining the conference and, with their location already neighboring the current Big Ten footprint, makes more sense than some others.

The same is true about Nebraska, who hasn’t been as vocal about their interest, but hasn’t shot down the possibility either.

Kansas and Kansas State have also entered the conversation, as has Pitt.

Was it all smoke and mirrors?

My first impression of all the expansion talk was one of intrigue.  I bought into many of the scenarios and couldn’t help but wonder if any of them held more merit than others.

As the discussions went on though, I (along with others) started to wonder if it wasn’t all just a ploy to coax the original target (Notre Dame) out of hiding.  After all, the gamble of expanding into New York seems awfully risky, Texas is off the table, and none of the others really gets fans pumped up for an expansion at all.

The upside of expanding started looking less and less appealing.

If all of the talk was enough to convince Notre Dame that alignment Armageddon was on the horizon though, and lure them to the Dark Side before all hell broke loose, then it would have been a great success.  The Irish would bring with them a national audience, wouldn’t cost anything further for the rest of the schools in the conference, and would give the Big Ten enough participants to finally hold a championship game.

It may be working too.  Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick, despite insisting that the Irish wish to remain independent, admitted that there might be scenarios that would force them to join a conference.  The most likely conference to win their admission is the Big Ten because of location and existing yearly rivalries.

While those scenarios aren’t playing out (yet), they’re gaining a little momentum both in fan comments and comments by various conference commissioners. If things really start to shake out the way they appear they might, the Big East could be in real trouble, and Notre Dame might have to start looking at joining the movement or risk being left in the cold when the dust settles.

I won’t get into what realignment scenarios might look like that would force Notre Dame’s hand because you can find that information/opinion just about anywhere on the web.

What about that Research firm?

This is another reason many folks thought that Delany was serious this time around.  Why would he bother hiring a research firm to investigate the viability of inviting one of five “obvious” teams.  Those teams include Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse, Missouri, and Pittsburgh.

Why indeed?

The firm recently reported that expansion by the Big Ten would be profitable.  Does that mean that the Big Ten has to move forward with expansion?

In short, no.  They don’t have to for that reason alone, though it is a better reason to move forward than any other given by sport fans’ blogs.

Another possibility is that the entire thing was part of the ruse to gain Notre Dame’s trust.  By proving that bringing them on board would be profitable for the conference and every member of it (including Notre Dame), it gives the Irish something pretty big to chew on. 

Just how important to them is their independence when there’s extra profit to be made by joining the Big Ten?

Plus, even if gaining Big Ten money isn’t enough for the Irish, it apparently gives the the conference the green light to expand, which means all of those crazy scenarios (including the Super Conference one), become a little more realistic. 

It’s yet another way Delany can tell Notre Dame “we want you, but don’t need you, and we’re going to change college football forever.  So what’s it gonna be?  Are you on board or not?”

The fact that the firm found Rutgers and/or Syracuse to be profitable is also telling.  It means that the New York market isn’t quite as dead as many think it is, despite the rabid fan support for all of the pro teams in the NY/NJ area.  I’ll get back to that in a little bit, though.

Why is it a foregone conclusion now, but wasn’t earlier?

There’s one big factor that has changed the scope of the entire argument: other conferences exploring expansion.

The Pac-10 announced that they would explore expansion almost as soon as the gasp was uttered over Delany’s announcement about the Big Ten.  The Pac upped the ante a shade by actually naming two programs that they would be interested in potentially bringing aboard – Colorado and/or BYU. 

That little piece of information made it (sound at least) clear that the Pac-10 was serious about expansion, while there was still some question about the Big Ten’s sincerity.  With all due respect to the Pac-10 however, that alone wasn’t reason enough for anyone to think that the Big Ten would have to go forward.

Now, the SEC is talking though, and that does change things.  It’s very clear that if any conference makes a move that threatens any other conference, there may well be a domino effect.

Let me put it more clearly this way.  If the Big Ten expands, the Pac-10 will likely expand too.  Both will go to at least 12 schools, which means a minimum of three teams changing affiliations. 

That could weaken the Big XII at least a little, which means they will likely try to find replacements for their lost program(s).  The Big East may need to pull in new faces as well.  If any of these moves become too aggressive, the SEC will see it as their duty to expand in order to guarantee their continued (perceived) dominance of college football.

Now back to the New York/New Jersey argument.

Now that the firm hired by the Big Ten to investigate expansion viability has stated that it would be profitable, the idea of taking Syracuse and/or Rutgers as a member of the Big Ten changes things even further.

If the Big Ten snags both teams, they lock down an incredibly populated area.  Whether they actually watch a lot of college football or not is relatively irrelevant. 

There are enough people in the area to assume that plenty will watch (even occasionally) for the BTN to make good money off that market.  To bolster that as much as possible, the Big Ten would likely go for both Syracuse and Rutgers, then add a third team from somewhere else, and become a 14-team conference.

The report made by the firm no longer gives the Big Ten a good excuse not to expand, and to go for the gold, so to speak.  The conference can create its championship game, possibly increase competition, and make money in the process. 

What argument could Delany use to convince the fan base that has largely embraced expansion at this point, that it’s not a good idea after all?

That’s where the dominoes really start to tumble.

If the Big Ten jumps to more than 12 teams, and especially if they do so while breaking into the New York television market, then the SEC will not hesitate to begin negotiations for expansion themselves.  The Pac-10 also will not sit idly by while the two richest conferences in America maneuver to increase their holdings, and will become even more aggressive with their expansion plans.

All of that movement will put the Big East and Big XII in jeopardy of becoming irrelevant, if not outright collapse.  The Big XII only has two teams (Texas and Nebraska) with national appeal, and it’s entirely possible they could lose them both, as well as Colorado, which holds the lucrative Denver market. 

At the very least, it seems likely that they would lose Colorado to the Pac-10 and then Missouri or Nebraska to the Big Ten.  That means losing two decent markets, while keeping just one, in Texas (even though its one of the biggest markets).

The Big East has even less that they can afford to lose.  If they forfeit the NY/NJ market to the Big Ten, they’re already hurting.  If the SEC decides to raid the ACC for its expansion, the ACC will have little choice but to raid the Big East as it did before (even though it wouldn’t be enough).  The Big East could be all but gutted through all of this.

The problem is, if the Big Ten doesn’t go through with their plans now, they lose a ton of credibility with fans.  Not only that, but they’ve got two other conference talking expansion.  If they don’t make the first move, they risk having the SEC make it and close whatever gap there is between competing revenues, as well as having the Pac-10 do the same.

If the Big Ten wants to remain the top dog in revenues, it has to expand that revenue base before anyone else can.  If they want to become the top dog competitively (which they arguably may already be, top-to-bottom), they need to bring in better recruiting markets, install a conference championship game, add at least one competitive team, and make sure their best teams are prepared for January bowl season.

Conclusion

When Jim Delany first made the announcement that the Big Ten was thinking expansion, the door was still wide open to back out.  It would have been simple to just say “we’ve concluded it’s not financially productive to expand right now.” 

A few people might have rolled their eyes, but most would accept the conclusion (if not agree with it), and move on.

Also, as long as they were merely “talking expansion” and allowed no rumors to squeeze out that there may be more than one team involved, no one would have gotten this worked up.  The Big Ten could pick up Missouri or Pitt or anyone outside of the NY/NJ market, and there would be little shuffling thereafter.

In that scenario, the Pac-10 would likely try to pick up Colorado and BYU, which would leave the Big XII short-handed if indeed the Big Ten took Missouri (not a first choice, by the way).  So, the Big XII makes a mini raid of the MWC or WAC, and everything settles back down with a couple of new conference championship games for fans to watch.

Once the Big Ten let it slip that a multiple team expansion was possible, then the wheels came off the cart.  Suddenly, there was talk of the first Super Conference, which means that any other conference wishing to stay competitive for TV dollars would need to follow suit.

Now, the firm hired to investigate whether or not all of this would even work has come back with an affirmative vote of approval.  There’s no backing out.  The only question is, how big will the Big Ten go, and how fast will they do it?

All of that hinges largely on Notre Dame.  If the Irish come back within the next several weeks and agree to join the Big Ten, that’s where it ends.  The Pac-10 will make a couple of moves, the Big XII will fill the void of Colorado with a MWC or WAC team (preferably TCU to lock down all of Texas), and the dust will settle without the nuclear holocaust that has the nation in a tizzy.

If Notre Dame stubbornly insists on remaining independent however, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Big Ten go after the Big Apple market, plus pull a more competitive team out of the Big XII and jump to 14 teams.  That will start a hail storm of activity around the nation that will likely transform the football landscape into something wholly unrecognizable from what we see today.

From my perspective, those are the only two choices the Big Ten has left.  Backing out of the deal altogether was eliminated the moment William Blair & Company reported to the Big Ten that expanding was a good idea.

 

This story also appears on Stix and Stones Big Ten Banter .  Also catch Stones Zorger and I on our weekly talk show as we discuss everything Big Ten football!  You can join the discussion by phone or chat!