Is Texas Tech Still a College Fantasy Football Powerhouse?

by J. Michael Estes - CollegeFootballGeek.com contributing writer

College fantasy football’s greatest draft day destination is going through a face-lift of epic proportions.  What should we make of the Red Raider offense as we head into spring ball?

What’s the scoop?

The Mike Leach era at Texas Tech has come to an end and with it, so has an average of 5,230 passing yards and 42 touchdown passes per season.  Neal Brown, previously the offensive coordinator at Troy University takes over the offense and will do his best to duplicate similar statistics, but how much success will he actually have in 2010?

What to expect in 2010.

According to Tommy Tuberville, the new head coach at Texas Tech and Brown, the offense will still be very similar except that “we will run it a little more”. 

That is fine and all, but how can we reasonably expect anybody’s offense to be similar to what Leach has been running in Lubbock the last ten years and specifically, how much is “a little more”? 

It is important to note that both Leach and Tony Franklin are followers of the Hal Mumme (BYU of the 1980’s) offense and that Brown was an understudy of Franklin.  When I compare the two offenses, here is what I see. 

Brown’s offense runs many of the fundamental patterns and reads the same as Leach historically has. For example, on any given play a wide receiver will have two routs he may run depending on whether he reads zone or man coverage. 

In order for this to work, the quarterback and the wide receiver need to make the same read and react accordingly. Also, the quarterback has the freedom to audible out of a perceived bad play call at anytime.

The differences are that Brown’s offense will utilize a true tight end,  the offensive line “splits” will play at a tighter interval to support the ground game, and they will likely add a quarterback draw audible for when middle linebackers slide over to cover a slot receiver. Expect quarterback carries to increase with players like Sheffield and Karam in the ballgame and not so much with Potts or Doege.

As for running the ball “a little” more, statistically, it shakes out like this. 

Leach offenses typically passed 68% of the time and rushed 32% of the time.  Brown’s offenses have passed 54% of the time and rushed 46% of the time.

Who’s back?

Running Backs:

These guys are up first because they are your best bet for fantasy production in 2010.
R Sr. Baron Batch, Baron is a complete football player who is expected the carry the load.
Sr. Aaron Crawford, Crawford had a big game against Oklahoma in 2007 but has since battled injuries.
R So. Harrison Jeffers, Supremely talented young player who is still trying to figure things out.
So. Eric Stephens, Promising young player similar in mold to Batch.
Signees:  Delans Griffin, Ben McRoy

Quarterbacks:

Sr. Stephen Sheffield, When he was in the game, he showed everyone with a functioning pair of eyes that he is “the man”.  If Sticks had attempted the additional 14 more passes needed to officially qualify, his efficiency rating of 177.6 would have towered over the rest of the NCAA FBS.
Sr. Taylor Potts, Potts looks like a hero in a non-contact jersey but doesn’t handle live game pressure very well.
R. So. Seth Doege,  Big armed smart kid that has had some knee issues in the past, but he seems to be okay now.
R. Fr. Jacob Karam, a natural born leader with a great skill set and a bright future.

Signee:  Scotty Young (2009 Gatorade POY in Texas, stash this name away)

Wide Receivers:

I’ll present these guys in the format of the pre-spring depth chart.  But expect some moves.
X Receiver-
1. Sr.  Lyle Leong – Watch this position in the spring and fall, there may be a move here.
2. R Fr. Eric Ward – Ward may be too good to not be a starter.
3. R Fr. E.J. Celestie
Z Receiver-
1. R So.  Alex Torres – If Torres continues the hard work, no one will take his starting position.
2. R Jr. Jacoby Franks
3. R Fr. Derrick Mays
Y Receiver-
1. Sr. Detron Lewis – Lewis and Zouzalik are co-starters for now, but Lewis is the more gifted player.
2. R So. Austin Zouzalik
3. R Fr. Aaron Fisher
H Receiver-
1. Jr. Tramain Swindall – Corn Dog has some ground to make up on Swindall.
2. R So. Cornelius Douglas
3. Jr. Adam James
Signees:  Shawn Corker, LaVauhgn Whigham (likely to move to defense)

If you fantasy draft was today (3/15/2010)….

Baron Batch is the first Red Raider that should be off of your draft board.  Batch would have had RB 1 fantasy numbers last year if he had not been limited in the first three games of the season.  Don’t let him get past the second round in any format this year, especially with the increased emphasis on the running game in 2010. 

Barring injury Stephen Sheffield will be a solid QB 1 for you this year although likely not an elite player.  If Barry Turner had not “sacked” Sticks by kick tripping him and therefore breaking his foot, he was on pace to finish 2009 on a tear not equaled by anyone except maybe Case Keenum.  Sheffield would make an excellent 3rd to 4th round pick in a 12 team all FBS league. 

As for the receivers, I can’t recommend any Red Raider pass catchers early in your draft this year.  There are simply too many hands and not enough footballs.  Detron Lewis , Alex Torres, and Lyle Leong are your best bets in the back half of your draft.  Maybe Torres gets a slight edge, but it is unlikely that anyone will become a “go-to” receiver in this offense.  If anyone does, don’t be surprised if that person is Eric Ward. This guy will be a star, it is just a matter of when.  Also, don’t be afraid of taking a last pick flier on Harrison Jeffers.  He is the most gifted offensive skill player on the team and would likely start for 100 other teams in the FBS. 

J. Michael Estes is a contributing writer for CollegeFootballGeek.com, your premier resource for college fantasy football information. Check us out.