Mountain West Conference 2010: Counting BCS Coup

2010 marks a significant season for the Mountain West Conference's hopes to gain automatic qualification to the Bowl Championship Series.

The BCS has published a minimum standard for a conference to obtain AQ status, and there are other criteria that are not published as well. However, without first passing the test of "published" criteria, there is little doubt that a conference will ever get put to the test for the other standards.

It will review the 2008 thru 2011 regular seasons to determine if any changes will be made in regards to conference affiliations. The rules state that up to seven conferences can obtain annual automatic berths.

For the 2008 and 2009 college football seasons, the Mountain West has put those criteria to the test and now appears to have a solid claim under its belt.

In 2008 the Mountain West placed an undefeated sixth ranked Utah Ute squad into the Sugar Bowl and two other teams in the top 25 (11th ranked TCU and 16th ranked BYU).

In 2009, the 12-0 TCU Horned Frogs climbed to the fourth ranked spot and another BCS berth, with BYU (14) and Utah (23) also finishing in the top 25.

But this is football, and every team needs to play a complete game in order to get that "W".

“Counting Coup” in college football means that you have to put your season on the line and schedule opponents that are worthy, that risk “injury or death” to your season.  Gaining prestige by winning those contests and escaping with your record unharmed will add some powerful feathers to the headdress.

A conference counts coup by having their members face off against opponents that belong to prestigious conferences. The Mountain West Conference has many such opportunities in 2010, with 15 games against BCS AQ members and at least one such contest for each team in the MWC.

For the 2010 season the Mountain West programs look to be separated by the "Big Three" of Utah, BYU, and TCU once again. Utah has busted the BCS (twice), TCU did it last year, but will 2010 be BYU's year? The original "mid-major" powerhouse that claims a national championship has been a consistent top 20 team, but taken a back seat to Utah and TCU over the last two seasons.

While the BCS doesn't say that it is important for multiple teams to carry the banner during the review period for each conference, in my opinion, it certainly can't hurt. Proving that the conference can produce multiple teams that will represent well on the field and the box office is exactly what the BCS wants to see.

For BYU to accomplish such a lofty goal it will need to take care of business on the road. A revenge match against the Florida State Seminoles (FSU stunned them 54-28 in Provo last season), in addition to in-conference travels to face TCU and Utah. Throw in a home game against the Jake Locker-led Washington Huskies, and that makes for one tough slate for the Cougars. But it is also one that would earn BCS-worthy national respect if they can go unscathed.

All of those games will have national media exposure, and it will give the conference a tremendous boast to see great football with packed stadiums. Traveling to Tallahassee and showing coach-no-longer-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher that the Cougs will return the favor of being embarrassed on their home field is absolutely vital. This game is just as important for the MWC as it is BYU in the battle for national respect.

Texas Christian returns a great deal of firepower from the last season and will most likely begin the season as the favorite to win the conference. The 2010 season starts with a bang, as the season-opener against Oregon State is on the biggest stage possible, Cowboys Stadium. In-state rivalry games against a resurgent SMU and a hopeful Baylor squad become "must-win" games for TCU to repeat as a BCS candidate.

One team that really has to pass the test in out-of-conference contests is the Utah Utes. With matchups against Pittsburgh at home and road games against Iowa State and Notre Dame, the Utes can either put some notches on the coup stick or live to fight another season.

At this point in time, the Iowa State game becomes a "must win" game as, despite the Cyclones' winning season in 2009, the Utes should still be the favorite. A home game rematch of the 2004 Fiesta Bowl against the Pitt Panthers will put the Big East versus Mountain West debate front and center, and possibly be a major coup to count in both conferences’ battle for BCS prestige.

The remaining members of the conference all have important battles that respect must be earned for the conference to gain respect and rankings within the BCS computer rankings.

The Air Force Falcons travel to Norman, Okla., to face the Sooners and host the Navy Midshipmen which should be for the Commander-in-Chief trophy. The Falcons have placed fourth in the last two years in the conference. Coach Troy Calhoun has committed to staying with the program and competing for conference championships. The Zoomies lost their entire starting offensive line, and many key defensive players, but return QB Tim Jefferson and the rest of the backfield.

Beyond the top four teams in the conference, however, the Mountain West has been viewed as being a weak conference. It is important that these teams win out-of-conference games, in order to improve the conference averages in the computer components of the BCS formula.

It should be expected that conferences will “beat each other up” as conference play starts, but conference respect is gained by having your weakest members still be strong opponents for other conference teams. Judging by the high rate of coaching turnover with these programs, you can sense that they are all desperate to grab that ring and pull themselves up.

The Colorado State Rams take on the Colorado Buffaloes in the Rocky Mountain Showdown, in Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium. The Rams won last year’s matchup, but struggled the rest of the way through the season, capping off with a nine-game losing streak. Not exactly what head coach Steve Fairchild wanted to follow up his winning rookie season, but maybe it was a case of a sophomore slump.

The San Diego State Aztecs match up against the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, as second-year head coach Brady Hoke looks to take a step towards realizing the potential inherent within the program, but long unrealized. Likewise, New Mexico has struggled to keep pace with the big boys, and hope that a second year under Mike Locksley will get them closer to their goals. The Lobos make a tough road trip to the defending Pac-10 champions Oregon Ducks and then host Texas Tech for Pecos River bragging rights.

Another sophomore coach is Dave Christensen at Wyoming, who actually did taste success in 2009. With a 7-6 bowl-winning season under his belt and some play-makers on his team, the Cowboys hope to avoid the CSU model, and establish themselves as a challenger for a top four conference spot. The Pokes have two big-time matchups out of conference, traveling to Austin to take on national title contender Texas Longhorns, and hosting the Boise State Broncos in Laramie.

This year’s rookie head coach, UNLV’s Bobby Hauck, hopes to improve upon a 5-7 2009 season for the Running Rebels with his extraordinary success at Division I-FCS powerhouse Montana. Hauck and the Rebels must start off their run by trying to skin the Wisconsin Badgers in Sin City, and later must travel to Morgantown and take on West Virginia.

All of the Mountain West programs must have near perfect success across the board against all of their other non-conference opponents from the WAC, MAC, Conference USA, and Division I-FCS teams. The “big three” schools will rightfully expect to dominate the conference, only knocking each other out as the season progresses. One of the three schools must remain unscathed through all of these hurdles and push for a top five ranking by season’s end.

It is extremely important for the MWC that one or two of the other squads put together a near-Top 25 type season. Wyoming is in the most obvious position to do this, with two early opportunities to make a statement, and more than enough returning players to build on last year’s success. Brady Hoke isn’t one to be overlooked at San Diego State, but their OOC schedule is weak after Missouri and it would require at least a 10-win season for them to push that high into the rankings.

Counting Coup Recap:

Signature games—A great effort goes a long way, but a win would be tremendous:

BYU at Florida State

New Mexico at Oregon

UNLV vs Wisconsin

Wyoming at Texas

Underdog games that are expected losses, but a win would be a giant payoff:

Air Force at Oklahoma

New Mexico vs Texas Tech

San Diego State at Missouri

UNLV at West Virginia

Wyoming vs Boise State

Push games that will define the conference’s season:

TCU vs Oregon State (at Cowboys Stadium)

Air Force vs Navy

CSU vs Colorado (at Mile High Stadium)

BYU vs Washington

UNLV vs Nevada, and at Hawaii

Utah vs Pittsburgh, and at Notre Dame

Trap games that MWC member should win, but the opponent could upset them:

Air Force at Army

BYU vs Nevada

Colorado State at Nevada

New Mexico vs UTEP

TCU vs Baylor, and at SMU

San Diego State vs Utah State

UNLV at Idaho

Utah at Iowa State

Wyoming at Toledo

Must Win games that will significantly drop prestige if MWC member loses:

Air Force vs Northwestern State

BYU at Utah State

Colorado State at Miami (Ohio), and vs Idaho

New Mexico vs New Mexico State

San Diego State vs Nicholls State, and at New Mexico State

TCU vs Tennessee Tech (?—Rumored 12th game still not official)

Utah vs San Jose State

Wyoming vs Southern Utah

My prediction is that none of the Mountain West schools will finish undefeated this season, either due to a tough out-of-conference loss or a rock-paper-scissors result between TCU-BYU-Utah. However, either TCU or Utah (or both) will truly test the power of the conference’s prestige with a one-loss season, and their final ranking will be more dependent upon where they start in the pre-season rankings. Whether or not the Mountain West makes another BCS appearance will depend upon the other AQ conference champions rankings, and if anyone can knock off Boise State during the regular season.

BYU should finish with a nine- or ten-win season and a place in the top 25 once again. Asking a new QB to win games against Washington and on the road against Florida State, Utah, and TCU is a little more than I can bring myself to do. If they do it, however, we could see the first Mountain West school in the national championship game. Utah could also put themselves in that position, as their schedule will be respectable to both human pollsters and computers alike.

The bottom of the conference looks a lot stronger this season, but I can’t see Air Force replacing so many key offensive linemen and maintaining the fourth spot. The conference really needs San Diego State, New Mexico, and/or Colorado State to make the jump into the eight win territory and count some BCS conference coup along the way.

The single most important game of the season for the Mountain West as a conference will be the Boise State Broncos visiting the Wyoming Cowboys. If the Cowboys can topple the WAC juggernaut it will eliminate them from BCS contention and elevate the Cowboys as a legitimate fourth national power in the MWC.

That is one coup that even Cowboys wouldn’t mind counting.