The Longhorns Make The Switch To A New Conference

A Short History of the World

The Texas Longhorns have been a part of the old Southwest Conference (SWC) for the majority of their NCAA participation. By the 1990s, however, the SWC proved both too geographically dwarfed and almost incestuous with the frequency and spread of academic probations that the schools experienced.

The more fortuitous half of the SWC arranged a merger with the Big Eight conference. The Big 12, a true scion of its parents, has also had its share of “unity issues.” The television contract signed by the conference allows networks to pick and choose which teams to broadcast and to give a proportionate amount of money to those more popular teams.

Once again the Texas fish has found itself floundering in a drying puddle. While expansion overtures made by the Big Ten and Pac-10 are doubtful to impact the University of Texas directly, the Longhorns may still find themselves gasping air when the rest of the Big 12 water is sucked dry.

While patching up the Big 12 with a few teams from the Mountain West or from Conference USA are legitimate proposals, such a situation would be untenable for the mighty Longhorn athletic department. A more proactive approach is necessary.

The Perfect Fit

Following a similar mental exercise recently applied to Brigham Young University, let us explore the ideal situation for Texas and work backward to find a legitimate solution.

If Texas was to create a new conference from scratch, Texas A&M and Oklahoma would be definite inclusions. Even without influence by the Texas legislature, these two teams are the Longhorns' greatest rivals.

In order to avoid the death suffered by the SWC, this new conference must also expand its geographic footprint. Arkansas has strong rivalries with both Texas schools, and LSU is a championship-caliber team in the rich recruiting bed of Louisiana.

Of course, poaching two SEC teams is an impractical consideration. However, with unique negotiations with the SEC (discussed below), both Ole Miss and Mississippi State will tag along into this new conference.

At seven teams, only one more team is needed to attain the BCS minimum conference size of eight teams. Nebraska will be the final team added, restoring their rivalry with Oklahoma, one of the nation's most historic.

The Negotiation

Pulling LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State would leave the SEC and the new Texas-centered conference with an equitable eight teams each. At best this is merely a lateral move by those four SEC teams; at worst it is an egregious breach of their SEC contract.

The catch is that, on paper, this is not the creation of a new “Texas” conference, but a four-team expansion by the SEC. The two will compete in football as separate conferences, but will fall under the same SEC television umbrella, saving them from the death which now latches its grip onto the Big 12.

In basketball, the two could compete in a combined Big East-style tournament or perhaps even pit their respective champions against each other in an outstanding Conference Tournament Final.

The Big Bad Bowls

The largest drawback that competing as two football conferences produces, is the loss of a Conference Championship Game (CCG). The current SEC and Big 12 CCGs produce $15M and $12M, respectively. Hosting a CCG for this expanded conference could reach BCS numbers.

And the BCS is just where this alignment rakes in the dough. Now, because of their operation as two conference, the enlarged SEC will have twice as much bowl earning potential. The example addition of Texas's $18M earned by its 2010 Rose Bowl trip more than makes up for the loss of a CCG.

Additionally, the Sugar Bowl could confidently host champions of both conferences for the BCS (like the Rose Bowl does for the Big Ten and Pac-10). This western shift in venue and the extra month of media hype would give such a championship revenue equal to that of the Rose Bowl. Atlanta could still host its early season romp between two southern powerhouses.

Taking a Step Back

Whether preemptive or reactive, the creation of a Texas-centered conference will be closely tied to potential moves made by the Big Ten and Pac-10.

With the current BCS contract expiring after the 2013 season and a realignment at the very top of the college football world, it is very likely that the FBS postseason will be reworked. The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl may find themselves heads and shoulder above the others, like the Orange, Fiesta, and Cotton bowls.

I wouldn't jump to the conclusions of either a playoff or multiple “super-conferences,” but now is the time to make a move. The Big East made such a move in the early 90s and continues to reap the benefits despite its poorer performance and diminished presence.

Conclusions

If and when the integrity of the Big 12 Conference is compromised, those teams will need to recreate their conference with greater forethought than before, or find a conference of teams who will. Teams such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska need to be proactive now.

The SEC has found its happy-place at 12 teams and does not need to water down their revenue sharing by inflating their football conference-size. Expansion must happen hand-in-hand with division of the football conference. The money will be there and marketing their brand in three or four new states will only diversify their appeal.

A Texas-centered conference takes the cream of the Big 12 crop and puts it under the tremendously successful SEC banner. The SEC schools will not mind the additional exposure and the Big 12 schools will not mind the stable revenue sharing. This is a win for all members involved.

Miscellaneous Football Details

Eight teams does not a balanced schedule make, when it comes to football. We learn this from the Big East.

Expansion to nine teams for both the South-East and South-West conferences may seem like a no-brainer, but it would have to take place about five years later, after the current wave of expansion subsided. Expanding by six teams is best done in more than one step. We learn this from the WAC.

In the intervening years, the schools could agree to play an additional cross-conference game, to give all 16 teams an even home-away split. While not a “conference” game in the standings, this additional game will allow some teams to keep older rivalries.

South Carolina- Arkansas, Mississippi State-Kentucky, and Ole Miss-Vanderbilt may not be of the highest priority to keep, but Alabama-LSU is a must. And cycling Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Nebraska against Georgia, Florida, Auburn, and Tennessee will make anyone's mouth water.

And each of these matchups would be appropriate for the prime-time venue that the recently resurrected Kickoff Game that the Chik-fil-A Bowl Committee is hosting in Atlanta. While the city may lose the SEC CCG, this Kickoff Game will become the next best thing.

The shift of Auburn and Alabama into the South-East conference will reunite them with some of their larger rivals: Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee. Despite the closeness of the states of Mississippi and Alabama, this switch will be a net positive.

Future 17^th and 18^th teams would probably be a team from the ACC or Big East for the South-East conference and a team from the Big 12 or Conference USA-West (which would probably merge) for the South-West conference.