Way Too Early University of South Florida 2010 Football Predictions

While it may be much too early to make sensible predictions for an upcoming college football season still far distant, the excitement of the NFL draft and the University of South Florida's atypical player participation in it, has me prematurely looking forward to the fall football season.  Against all good reason, I am going to endeavor to produce my predictions, now, for the Bulls' 2010 football season. 

Before one can share such predictions, at least three details about the next USF team, as well as the Big East as a whole, are noteworthy.  

First, it should be recognized that 2010 may be a “down” year for Big East football. Throughout nearly every roster within the league, lack of experience is going to be a source of worry.  As has been noted repeatedly by a friend of mine, such an observation is a shame, because when the Big East was “up” (say, last year when Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were both strong, among others), its overall talent went unnoticed. However, sports pundits will be unlikely to remain ignorant should the Big East show up lacking in the coming year.  Being a down year, it may seem the 2010 Big East schedule will offer less competition for the Bulls.  This, however, is a trap. Because the Bulls exhibit the same questions as nearly every other team in the league, I find it difficult to count many victories for South Florida during their Big East schedule.  In fact, should the questions inherent for all teams be fairly equal, USF's Big East history provides precedent enough to argue that the upcoming one may be a challenging season for the young Bulls.

I would also observe that there is one team that is the proverbial man amongst boys within the Big East, and that team is the University of Pittsburgh. Like all their peers within the league, the Panthers are not without uncertainty, and in their case, this uncertainty is focused on the quarterback position where they have lost last year's starter, Bill Stull, to graduation.  However, in terms of pure talent, Pittsburgh may return the two best players on both sides of the ball: Greg Romeus on defense, and running back Dion Lewis on offense.  The Panthers play at South Florida, where a win over the Bulls the week before USF travels to a difficult game at The University of Miami, may be devastating to the Bulls' collective team morale.  As I will share below, this is exactly the case I predict to unfold.  While the score may be closer than some will anticipate as the game nears, because of superior talent, experience, and coaching continuity, I expect the Panthers to do in Tampa as they did two years ago, and leave Raymond James Stadium with a win. 

And, finally, I am not suggesting that the 2010 Bulls will not be a highly talented football team. I do observe, however, that it will be an inexperienced one.  And, from my perspective, potentially, it will also be a football team that is not very successful; at least, so far as its record will be concerned. 

With the prologue of sorts noted, I give to you my prediction for the University of South Florida Bulls' 2010 football record: 5 wins, 7 losses.  Here is how I see the season unfolding: 

Stony Brook (Home) – W

AT the University of Florida – L 

Western Kentucky (Home) – W

Florida Atlantic (Home) – W

Syracuse (Home) – W 

AT West Virgina – L

AT Cincinnati – L 

Rutgers (Home) – L 

AT Louisville – W

Pittsburgh (Home) – L

AT Miami – L 

UConn (Home) – L

At the heart of the University of South Florida's football schedule are games at West Virgina and Cincinnati, followed by a home tilt with Rutgers, all of which are nationally televised.  None of these games are being played on Saturdays, with the Rutgers game most unusually scheduled as it is set to be played on a Wednesday night.  None of these three opponents are explicitly more talented than the Bulls.  However, each team provides its own unique challenge for USF.  While the Bulls have developed some history in defeating good Mountaineer teams, they had more success at home than they have had in Morgantown.  Cincinnati may have more questions than any other team in the league and their matchup with the Bulls would be more winnable for Skip Holtz's team if A) the game did not occur in late October on a Friday night in Cincinnati in a stadium where USF has never won, and B) the Bearcats were not returning a quarterback whose running scorched the Bulls defense the previous season.  The Bulls are infamous for producing disappointing midseason slumps, and whether that was a fault of former coach, Jim Leavitt, or otherwise, there is little to suggest that the same will not occur in 2010 as this trio of games concludes with the Bulls facing a team that perennially has their number, the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers. I predict losses in all three of these games. 

The 2010 USF Bulls will be facing adversity unlike any in their history.  In one graduating class (along with a junior who is leaving early, defensive end, Jason Pierre Paul), the defense is losing more talent than it has ever seen disappear simultaneously before.  Following the 2007 season, USF lost two stud cornerbacks, one of which is now a Pro-Bowler in the National Football League, Mike Jenkins.  However, the 2010 team is entering the season after losing its first All American in defensive end, George Selvie.  Additionally, Pierre Paul may potentially become the highest draft pick ever produced by the school.  Safety Nate Allen and cornerback Jerome Murphy are also projected as early round draft picks. Meanwhile, Kion Wilson, the anchor of the linebacking core and an NFL combine invite, is also lost to graduation.  Recent recruiting success may eventually prove effective in replacing the talent lost by these defensive stars, but the experience provided by the likes of Allen, Selvie, and Wilson especially, will surely be missed.  With their production gone, objectivity dictates that one must foresee a defense worse off than the one USF showcased last year. 

The inexperience left by such a loss of talent is magnified by the upheaval of the Bulls' coaching staff.  Gone is the only head coach the football team has ever known, Jim Leavitt.  In his place is Skip Holtz.  I believe that Coach Holtz will prove to be an outstanding BCS coach and will make great strides in improving the football team, especially in consistency of local recruiting and in eliminating some questions about the Bulls' discipline.  However, I do not know if that eventual success will come as immediate as next year.  This is a young team.  Besides the changes noted on defense, there are other glaring examples of youthfulness.  BJ Daniels, the returning starting quarterback, for all his success, is entering his first season as the entrenched starter. The defensive line, losing Selvie and Pierre Paul, is also young, but talented (including the possible emergence of DE Ryne Giddins, the University of South Florida's highest ever ranked recruit).  The offensive line may be the best in USF's history, and while most of its members have a season under their belt, they do not have much more than that.  The young players on the 2010 team will not only still be adjusting to the demands of big time college football, but will also be trying to learn the nuances of a new coaching staff.  Everything will be changed, from the way practices are run to the terms used in the playbooks.  To master all of this, while simultaneously adjusting to life on campus, is asking much of young men.  I do not suggest that they can not handle doing so.  I simply do not think it is fair to expect them to do so and, simultaneously, produce extraordinary results in a Big East football conference that is going to be very evenly matched throughout. 

What should be the cornerstone of the team has also been left ambiguous at best because of off season activity.  The Bulls have ample talent at the position of running back.  The question is how Coach Holtz will utilize that talent.  The Bulls lost potential starter Mike Ford because of off-the-field team violations.  In his place, returns Mo Plancher for his sixth season.  However, Plancher may be the least talented of the available backs in the stable.  Another option is junior college transfer Mike Hayes. Senior Jamar Taylor may emerge as the most productive back of the entire crew, however his status is in some doubt as he missed most of the previous season due to injury.  Super-quick Lindsay Lamar will also provide Coach Holtz another choice, but his size prevents him from being an every down running back.  Underutilized fullback Richard Kelly may finally get his opportunity advancing the ball in short yardage situations.  No doubt this position will provide a wealth of talent for the Bulls. However, in the past, this same source of wealth was misspent and, continuously, the quarterback position was the most productive running the ball.  As the biggest weakness of quarterback BJ Daniels is his consistency accurately placing the ball, his success will depend on the running game relieving pressure from the passing game; and, most importantly, the source of the running can not come from Daniels's legs. Should the talent at running back fail to gain expected and needed results, as has been the case in the past, the quarterback position will falter as a consequence, leaving little to be expected of the Bulls' offense. 

Finally, there is one aspect of this Bulls team that can not be ignored: its glaring lack of depth at the quarterback position.  The Bulls know all too well that the position is a fragile one as they lost star quarterback, Matt Grothe, to injury in the 2009 campaign. Should the same occur to Daniels this year, or to a less harrowing extent, he simply performs badly, what alternative option do the Bulls have?  The only other signal callers on the roster are Evan Landi, whom most recently has been lining up at wide receiver, and Jamius Gunsby, a true freshman who is without even the experience of standing the sideline as a member of a college football team.  I believe that Daniels is as talented as any quarterback in the Big East.  His success may cause the Bulls' record to turn more positive than I have predicted here.  However, the absolute negligence devoted to ensuring that the team is prepared should he fail, prohibits me from being able to depend on his position's success. 

2010 may be one of the most difficult, and ultimately, disappointing years for the Bulls football team and its fans.  However, those fans should look positively to the future beyond the upcoming season.  Success in recruiting has improved every year since the Bulls joined the Big East.  The team, although young now, has probably more talent in that youth than any other team in the conference.  And the arrival of Coach Holtz begins a new era of promise for USF football.  However, the massive loss of talent and experience on defense, coupled with the time required for a team to adjust to a new coaching staff, may cause it to be most healthy for Bulls fans to exhibit patience in expecting the onset of that success.