Notre Dame and the Big Ten: Are They Still Posturing for Leverage?

Boca Raton, Fla.—I believe the Examiner's Kevin McGuire when he reminds us that "the Big Ten should not be too quick to rule out the Irish this time around either." 

McGuire refers to 2003 when, as he puts it, "Notre Dame was once on the verge of joining the Big Ten, but at the stroke of midnight the Irish pulled out."

Could Notre Dame and the Big Ten be playing each other in a game of chicken to see who's the first to blink?

Joining the Big Ten seems almost natural for Notre Dame, but posturing for the sweetest deal makes sense.  While Big Ten athletic directors speak about $5 million entry fees for teams from the Big East, Notre Dame knows that that won't apply to them.

Could the Irish be holding out for more, keeping the Big Ten on hold, while waiting to see if the Big Ten will pay them, to join the conference?

Is the Big Ten playing the game by ratcheting up the pressure on Notre Dame, trying to make them believe that they will issue Rutgers, Missouri, or Pittsburgh a formal invitation within this calendar year?

I Never Thought I was Prophetic

I don't know if it's an innate prophetic talent, or just a keen eye for spotting undocumented fill that gets thrown around the Internet, faster than phony compliments at the boss' birthday party.

Just Monday, I wrote "sometimes before a story's ink has dried, the story is outdated. Don't believe anything you hear about conference expansion;  it changes by the hour."

It was late last week when the Big Ten Commissioner told Colin Cowherd that there's nothing to talk about in regard to expansion, until the exploratory committee presents their recommendations.  He said it would take three to four months.

This past Tuesday, ESPN issued a statement that revealed, "Advocates of Big Ten expansion now have a report to back them up."

They went on to explain that someone with ties to the search firm told the Chicago Tribune that "we can all get richer if we bring in the right team or teams."

That was a quick three to four months!

The Legacy of a Commissioner and an Athletic Director are at stake

The Big Ten's Jim Delany is said to be set on expanding the Big Ten.  Whether he decides on 12, or 14 teams, is still unclear.  He was the one who pushed for the inclusion of Penn State back in the late 80's, and he sees the Big Ten's future tied to another expansion.

Delany knows how damaging any expansion that doesn't include Notre Dame could potentially be. 

Like George Steinbrenner, who wanted that big new ball park the New Jersey Meadowlands had discussed, but didn't want his legacy to define him as the man who moved the Yankees out of New York, Delany surely doesn't want to be known as the commissioner who locked out the Irish.

Notre Dame's new athletic director Jack Swarbrick has a legacy at stake also.  Swarbrick knows that if the Big Ten does expand, and Notre Dame is not on board, he is risking his reputation and could go down as the Athletic Director who decided it was a bad idea for Notre Dame to join the Big Ten.

If the Big Ten continues to grow their revenues, especially with the success of their Big Ten Network, Swarbrick could be looked upon as someone who didn't foresee the future, and had a large responsibility in retarding Notre Dame's financial growth. 

This scenario could easily play out if NBC keeps refusing to increase the size of Notre Dame's television contract.

Don't Believe Them When They Say They Will Never Join a Conference

We've all heard the rhetoric!  Jack Swarbrick recently told the media "the Irish won't become the conference's 12th school."  He went on to talk about how important Notre Dame's independent status is, and how it's allowed them to maintain long-standing rivalries.

Bleacher Report mainstays like Clashmore Mike recently wrote "for the zillionth time, Notre Dame will not join the Big Ten."

Don't believe anything you hear about Big Ten expansion, and don't believe anything about Notre Dame not joining a conference in football.

Swarbrick and Mike can go on and on about Notre Dame's independent tradition, but they can't deny the fact that in 2003 Notre Dame basketball coach Mike Brey told the Chicago Tribune that Notre Dame almost jumped to the Big Ten.

Brey told reporters, "He (former athletic director Kevin White) told me to be prepared.  We were going to the Big Ten."

Notre Dame obviously backed out at the last moment.  Most felt they got scared when  realizing they would make more money by remaining independent, especially through their large—at that time—NBC television contract.

Things have changed.  Their current television contract is not large anymore when compared to those enjoyed by the Big Ten and SEC, and in 2003 the Big Ten Network didn't exist.

The Big Ten's Fear of Expansion

Everything is a Gamble, including conference expansion.  This year each member of the Big Ten conference received close to $22 million in shared revenue. 

Wisconsin's Barry Alvarez has probably been the most outspoken, but other Big Ten AD's and administrators have expressed concern over "not wanting to share the pie in 12 ways."

It's a logical concern, especially since the huge pay off each school receives has already been spent or has already been budgeted out, but there are a lot scared people in Big Ten executive positions with short memories.

Back in the 80's, before the addition of Penn State, each school received something in the area of $2 million-$3 million from the conference—a far cry from what they received last year.

Jim Delany was the one who pushed for the expansion of Penn State and has to be given a lot the credit for the huge money maker the Big Ten has become. 

If Delany says another expansion is the way to go, it would seem a given for conference execs to buy in, stop complaining, and trust their visionary leader once again.

But that won't happen, not unless it's Notre Dame that Delany can get to be his 12th team.

Will the Big Ten Expand this Year?

I can't see the Big Ten expanding without Notre Dame.  Unless negotiations start up again between the two, it's doubtful the Big Ten will pull the trigger with Rutgers, Pitt, Syracuse, or Missouri and finalize an expansion in 2010.

Although it's apparently been concluded by the search committee that expansion is a money maker, Big East teams will have stiff opposition from each other, if anyone jumps ship. 

Remember, the same teams mentioned as possible candidates for Big Ten expansion are some of the same teams that complained so vehemently when Miami started the defection from the Big East in 2003.

Some of these schools joined together with Connecticut when they launched a lawsuit close to $100 million aimed at the University of Miami.  They claimed Miami breached their contract and should be responsible for financial damages it caused.

The condemnation that Boston College received, when they followed Miami to the ACC, was nothing like it will be this time.  

Boston College had to remain in the Big East for one full year, while they had already agreed to join the ACC.  This time, if a Big East team defects, they'll be marked for two, three, or more years—it won't be pleasant.

The Big East has the option of banding together.  If they keep improving their football, they'll get more fans and the television money will go up. 

And it's probably going to go up anyway, as the ESPN gets afraid, they too will start a conference network, and try to appease them with bigger contracts.

And shouldn't they! 

Shouldn't the Big East follow the lead of the Big Ten and start their own Big East Network? 

The Big East includes some of the country's largest marketing areas and the potential for their own network is there.

The Big East has brought its basketball league to the very top; they've saved their football league while on the brink of disaster.

So why can't they preserve and expand their product?

If a Big East team should join the Big Ten, they will forever be considered a newcomer and may never attain the status that will allow them to be a player in the decision making process.

Does Penn State really feel at home in the Big Ten?