Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Idaho vs. New Mexico State Odds: February 24th 2010

Idaho vs. New Mexico State
Free Pick: New Mexico State -4.5 (February 24th 2010 – Matt Fargo)
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The way I see it, the markets have not caught up with New Mexico St. for some reason and we are still getting value on the Aggies so we will continue to ride. The Aggies started the season at 3-6 and that slow start can be attributed to a number of reasons but mostly it was due to not being at close to full strength. That is not that case anymore as New Mexico St. has everyone back and the biggest returnee was forward Wendell McKines. He has been back for 16 games and it is no surprise that the Aggies are 13-3 in those games with one loss coming against WAC heavyweight Nevada, another coming against a strong San Jose St. team and the last at Fresno St. He is averaging 11.2 ppg and 9.6 rpg and his presence makes this team nearly complete. The backcourt is one of the best in the conference and is even better with McKines back in the lineup. Guard Jahmar Young and guard Jonathan Gibson are doing something really special in Las Cruses. Young enters this game third in the WAC in scoring at 20.9 ppg while is Gibson is sixth at 18.2 ppg. They are the highest scoring teammates in the conference and as of last week’s NCAA’s stats, they were the only teammates in the national top 50 in scoring.

To make things even better, the Aggies got forward Troy Gillenwater back five games ago as he was reinstated from being academically ineligible. All he’s done in his first five games back is average 15.6 ppg and 7.4 rpg and it the best sixth man in the conference. The high-scoring backcourt combined with the new solid frontcourt of McKines, Gillenwater and center Hamidu Rahman, make New Mexico St. a tough matchup for anybody in the WAC as the Aggies now possess five double-digit scorers. The fifth starter is point guard Hernst Laroche who had a tidy 2.00 assist/turnover ratio. Idaho was a pleasant surprise to open the season with an 8-4 record but it then suffered six straight conference losses to take some of the wind out of its sails. To the Vandals credit, they did not quit and have gone a solid 5-3 over their last eight games including a 3-1 record on the road. However the one loss came against the best team they played and that was Utah St. by 18 points and while these Aggies may not quite be in line with those Aggies, they are close.

The RPI shows New Mexico St. with a 66 rank while Idaho is at 174 and those are pretty significant differences. With a variance that big, we usually see it in the line as well but that is not the case in this one as we once against catch New Mexico St. with an outstanding line. 3* New Mexico St. Aggies